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May 6, 2026

There’s little love for the SNP – so why does the party look set to win in Scotland?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fraser McMillan, Lecturer in Scottish Electoral Politics, University of Edinburgh

Barring a last-minute surprise, the Holyrood election will probably return the Scottish National Party (SNP) to government for the fifth time in a row. The nationalists have been in office for so long that thousands of Scots who weren’t even born when the party entered office in 2007 are now going to the polls for the first time.

But just 23% of respondents think the Scottish government is doing a good job, according to the Scottish Election Study’s final pre-election Scoop poll in February. This is down from 44% immediately before the 2021 election. And according to the latest opinion polls, the party is on track to drop at least 10 percentage points of the 47.7% constituency vote share it recorded back then.

It was always going to be challenging for the SNP to sustain such high levels of support given the economic climate. As our public opinion tracking data demonstrates, it didn’t take long after 2021 for the public mood to sour as the second-order impacts of the COVID pandemic and longer-running economic woes sank in.

Issues such as inflation, a creaking health service, chronic housing shortages and high street stagnation dented voters’ faith in governing parties at both Westminster and Holyrood. The share of Scots who thought the country was heading in the right direction dropped from just over 40% in 2021 to under 20% by 2025.

Pro-independence voters, who had loyally voted SNP as a bloc since the 2014 referendum, began to point the finger at the party even before long-time first minister Nicola Sturgeon resigned.

The nationalists dropped in the opinion polls after enduring a year of scandal and two fraught changes of leadership, losing most of their Westminster MPs at the 2024 general election. This was their first popular vote loss to Labour since 2010.

Any other unpopular, long-in-the-tooth incumbent would be staring down the barrel of a decisive defeat. And the party’s vote share will undoubtedly decline. But two big factors will combine to buoy the SNP’s seat count at this election and likely propel the party back to power. First, the continued polarisation of the Scottish electorate on the question of independence. And second, an ever-more fragmented opposition.

Crossing the divide on independence

Although the salience of Scottish independence has declined since 2021, the SNP retains the support of two thirds of pro-independence voters. At the same time, the only other pro-independence party, the Scottish Greens, has withdrawn from all but a handful of constituencies.

Voters appear to be more willing to cross the constitutional divide than they did five years ago. But attitudes to independence continue to structure voting behaviour and views on the governments at Holyrood and Westminster. Enough voters still trust the SNP to “stand up for Scotland” within the union to stick with the party, even if they’re less enthusiastic on this occasion.

What’s more, the opposition is now even more divided. Both Labour and the Conservatives also look likely to lose support compared to peaks in recent elections. The Conservatives, the second-largest party in the previous parliament, are set to shed around half their vote from 2021. And Labour look likely to lose much of the ground they had made up by 2024 due to a faltering first two years in power at Westminster.

Combined, these parties and the SNP secured 91% of constituency votes in 2021 – this figure could drop to somewhere between 60% and 70% this time. Reform UK is competing with Labour for second place from a standing start, while the Liberal Democrats are also likely to advance. Voters hoping to unseat the SNP may agree on that, but little else.

snp poster attached to a lamppost. — The SNP can afford to shed support and still remain in office.
richardjohnson/Shutterstock

When this is fed into the electoral system, with 73 of the parliament’s 129 seats decided by first-past-the-post constituencies, the SNP can afford to lose a sizeable chunk of support and live to fight another day. Its vote is evenly spread around the country, and the splintering opposition (not to mention changing constituency boundaries) make it difficult to unseat when there is no consensus challenger of the kind Labour looked like being two years ago.

There are, however, substantial risks here for the nationalists (assuming they remain in charge). Instead of running a “big tent” campaign resembling the pre-indyref years – and with a two-decade record to defend – the SNP has been forced to pursue a core vote strategy, hoping to maximise turnout of the left-leaning, socially progressive “Yes” base.

To this end, the Scottish Greens have done the party a big favour by retreating in most constituencies and will expect to be rewarded. A Swinney government may find itself with some very difficult budgetary choices in a tightening fiscal environment which are at odds with an expansionary manifesto.

And the so-called “scunner factor” at this election, with low turnout expected and Reform UK and Green gains virtually guaranteed, suggests that patience is running thin with mainstream parties.

While it’s unlikely to bottom out as quickly as backing for Keir Starmer’s Labour government, continued stagnation in living standards could see SNP support erode further. Then again, the nationalists’ superpower has always been to use the political weather to their advantage – and the wide-open 2029 UK general election could provide another such opportunity.

If the nationalists can hang on to power, analysts looking back in another 20 years might regard Swinney’s own “loveless landslide” as the most important SNP victory of them all.

Fraser McMillan receives funding from UKRI/ESRC as part of the Scottish Election Study.

– ref. There’s little love for the SNP – so why does the party look set to win in Scotland? – https://theconversation.com/theres-little-love-for-the-snp-so-why-does-the-party-look-set-to-win-in-scotland-282280

May 6, 2026

Election day in the UK: what to look out for – and when we’ll know the results

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics and Co-director of The Elections Centre, University of Exeter

Voters are casting their ballots in elections to 136 English local authorities, the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd. For most, it’s the first opportunity to cast a ballot since the 2024 general election. This set of elections is complex, taking place in multiple locations with ballots being counted over several days and across three electoral systems.

In England, local elections run on a four-year cycle, which means different sets of seats in various locations are contested in any given year. This is a bumper year, with around 5,000 councillors – predominantly in urban local authorities – being elected in nearly 3,000 wards. There are more than 25,000 candidates contesting them.

There is added complexity in terms of baseline comparisons, which determine what is considered a loss, gain or hold. While most seats will have been last contested in 2022, various changes mean around a fifth of wards don’t have a directly comparable year. Instead, they have been assigned an estimated notional seat winner.

Labour is defending more than half of the seats up for election and control 65 of the local authorities. This includes 21 of the 32 in London and more than two-thirds of the metropolitan boroughs. They are also fielding the most candidates, a title that went to Reform UK last year.

The Conservatives are defending another quarter of the seats but only have control of 18 local authorities with elections this year. This includes five of the six county councils, whose elections were postponed last year.

The remaining fifth of seats are being defended by the Liberal Democrats (13.6%), independents and others (5.3%) and Greens (2.8%). Reform UK did not start contesting most seats until after the 2024 general election, which means they are defending only three seats this year. However, they’re fielding the second largest number of candidates after Labour.

Scotland and Wales

Scotland elects its devolved parliament every five years under what is known as the additional member system (AMS). This combines first-past-the-post constituency winners with a proportional regional top-up. There are 129 MSP seats up for grabs, 73 of which are elected from the constituencies and the remaining 56 allocated proportionally from the regional list.

The SNP is looking to win its fifth successive term in office. In 2021, it won 64 seats in total, and only two of those were from the proportional top-ups. The parties that gained most from the regional lists were the Conservatives (who came second with a total of 31 seats), Labour which won 22 MSPs and the Greens who achieved eight. The Liberal Democrats won all four of their seats via constituencies.

This election is being fought on new boundaries, affecting 42 of the constituencies and all but one of the regions.

Inside the Scottish Parliament Building in Edinburgh. — There are 129 Holyrood seats being contested in the Scottish election.
Felix Lipov/Shutterstock

Wales has a new voting system for these elections. The Senedd previously used the AMS to elect 60 representatives, but is now moving to a purely proportional closed-list system. Under this, six members are elected for each of the 16 geographies – first-past-the-post is gone and voters get one vote each. As such, it will be more difficult for any single party to win an overall majority.

Beneath all the logistics are thousands of interesting stories. Around 30% of councillors for all principal local authorities in England are being elected, along with all devolved members.

The extent of change that’s anticipated means there will be a swathe of new representatives taking office. That matters for governance. They will almost certainly win on much smaller winning vote shares, making many seats a very close race. In this context, each person’s vote matters more than ever.

But will this motivate electors to the polls? There could be a moderate but noticeable increase in turnout that is somewhat uncharacteristic of these elections.

When will we know the results?

Ballots are being counted over three days, with the closing results not being announced until Saturday afternoon. Around 46 English local authorities are expected to be counting votes overnight – this is about a quarter of all seats.

This means we should have a clear sense of how the elections are going by Friday morning – watch for Labour losing seats to the Greens and Reform, and for London councils shifting to “no overall control”. It will also be interesting to see which places have voted Reform or Liberal Democrat to the detriment of the Conservatives.

Scotland and Wales both count on Friday, along with all but four of the remaining English local authorities. The earliest devolved results could be announced by lunchtime, but we should know for certain who has come out on top before your Friday chippy tea. Birmingham is an all-out election where all seats are being contested. It looks like it will be a real test for Labour, and counting there may not finish until after 6pm on Friday.

What we can be sure of is that the fragmentation of party support at British elections will continue. Labour and the Conservatives could record their worst results in some areas; the Greens and Reform may branch out to places they’ve never won before. But until every vote has been cast, it’s still in the electorate’s hands.

Hannah Bunting receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

– ref. Election day in the UK: what to look out for – and when we’ll know the results – https://theconversation.com/election-day-in-the-uk-what-to-look-out-for-and-when-well-know-the-results-282179

May 6, 2026

Self-destructive behaviour among Hermann’s tortoises on a Macedonian island is leading to ‘demographic suicide’

Source: The Conversation – France – By Xavier Bonnet, Directeur de Recherche CNRS à l’UMR 7372 en biologie et écologie des reptiles, Centre d’Etudes Biologiques de Chizé; La Rochelle Université

Golem Grad island in North Macedonia is full of Hermann’s tortoises. However, demographic projections suggest the last female could be wiped out by 2083. A female (pictured) that had fallen down a sheer drop of more than 20 metres. Fourni par l’auteur

On the strictly protected island of Golem Grad in North Macedonia, the tortoises are destroying their own population. During prolonged courtship, aggressive males are exhausting the females and frequently pushing them off the cliffs. Consequently, there are now one hundred males for every female capable of laying eggs. This is the only known example of demographic suicide in the wild to date.

Under favourable, stable and protected environments, large animal populations have no reason to die out. This should not happen unless a catastrophe, such as a devastating fire or the destruction of their habitat, or over-exploitation, wipes out all individuals or weakens the population, making it vulnerable to disease and other disturbances and hazards.

Well sheltered by the steep cliffs that line the island of Golem Grad on Lake Prespa in North Macedonia, Hermann’s tortoises (Testudo hermanni boettgeri) thrive on the wooded plateau.

After basking in the morning sun, they graze in the meadows, rest, and court, with the males emitting high-pitched sounds during mating. At first glance, nothing seems to threaten this population.

As is the case with other long-living species, maintaining populations requires high survival rates among adults. On Golem Grad, the adults have no predators, as wild boars, dogs, rats and humans are absent from this strictly protected island. The mild Mediterranean climate of this lake, situated at an altitude of 850 metres, is also favourable for reptiles.

All these factors explain the extraordinary population density, which stands at around 50 individuals per hectare – the highest ever recorded for tortoises. The ease with which these tortoises can be observed and studied led to the establishment of the field-monitoring programme in 2008. This was the result of a fruitful scientific collaboration between North Macedonia, Serbia and France, and this long-term monitoring programme was awarded the CNRS’s SEE-Life label in 2023.

But appearances can be deceiving: this population is in a critical state.

The extensive demographic, behavioural, physiological and experimental data collected over nearly 20 years show that, although highly active sexually and reproductively, this population is effectively committing suicide!

Demographic suicide

Demographic suicide is a strange and counter-intuitive theoretical process. The conditions under which it may arise are quite specific. For a given species, one must imagine a high-density population in which violent sexual behaviour is so prevalent that it threatens the survival of females. This would gradually lead to an imbalance in the sex ratio (the proportion of males and females in a population), in this case an excess of males. This would put increasing pressure on females, who would become fewer in number and more harassed as a result. This would eventually create a vicious circle that leads to the disappearance of females and, ultimately, the extinction of the population.

The cliffs of Golem Grad — Golem Grad is an 18-hectare island in a lake perched at an altitude of 850 metres. On its plateau there is a forest of Greek junipers that can reach heights of up to 10 metres, as well as numerous reptiles, snakes, lizards and birds. The steep cliffs are particularly dangerous for female tortoises when they are harassed by the males exhibiting violent sexual behaviour. Provided by the author.
Fourni par l’auteur

Coercive and violent mating behaviours are fairly common in nature. Typically, males harass females until they mate, sometimes injuring them in the process. In some cases, such behaviour can result in the death of the female, as has been observed in elephant seals (where the males are considerably stronger than the females), as well as in wild sheep, grey squirrels, otters, deer, toads, fruit flies, humans… However, such fatal outcomes do not benefit the males, as they will have no offspring if the females die during mating. Therefore, such excessively violent behaviours are maladaptive and remain marginal.

Furthermore, in wild populations, various regulatory mechanisms prevent this type of vicious circle, or extinction vortex, from emerging. Females can employ a wide range of avoidance and defence strategies. For example, they can hide, seek the protection of a dominant male, or form alliances. Excessively violent males generally produce fewer offspring than those who spare the females, meaning their behavioural traits are less likely to persist over time. Furthermore, when males become overcrowded, they tend to emigrate in search of better mating opportunities, thereby reducing the pressure on females. Thus, conflicts between the sexes in coercive mating systems are resolved through effective equilibria, without a harmful escalation for either sex.

However, rare experiments conducted on animals studied in captivity have shown that males can have a strong negative impact on populations when the sex ratio and population density are artificially skewed in favour of males. For example, in a species of Japanese shrimp, an excess of males reduces female fertility and mating opportunities. In the common lizard, an excess of males leads to increased aggression, reducing both the fertility and survival of females. This theory has thus received partial confirmation through experimentation.

What is causing disruption to the population in Golem Grad?

Information on the sexual behaviour of terrestrial tortoises, alongside a comparison with a control population, would be useful for understanding the situation in Golem Grad. The mating system of tortoises is coercive: males chase females, bump into them (like bumper cars) and sometimes bite them until they bleed and, in the case of Eastern Hermann’s tortoises, press on the females’ cloaca with their sharp tail spurs until they yield.

Mating — Before successfully mounting the female, the male persists for a long time by chasing her, biting her legs and bumping her shell, until she yields. Provided by the author.
Fourni par l’auteur

Hermann’s tortoises are still abundant in North Macedonia. We were therefore able to study another dense population located on the shores of the lake, just 4 kilometres from the island. Genetically very similar to the Golem Grad population, this population lives in a protected environment without cliffs. The females are large and heavy, with many weighing between 2.5 and 2.9 kg, and highly fertile, as shown by X-rays. They are slightly more numerous than the males and larger than them, and they effectively resist their intermittent sexual assaults. No demographic problems have been detected; population forecasts suggest an increase in numbers.

A caudal spur — Males use the long horny tip of their tail to jab the females’ cloaca. On Golem Grad, this often results in injury. Provided by the author.
Fourni par l’auteur

However, the situation at Golem Grad is quite different. On the plateau, over 700 adult males roam around looking for the forty or so adult females.

Furthermore, if physiological and environmental conditions are unfavourable, a Hermann’s tortoise may fail to lay eggs after mating. For example, if they are too thin or stressed, they are unable to build up reserves in the ovarian follicles and the eggs do not develop. In reality, therefore, there are more than 100 males for every female capable of laying eggs. However, our analysis of neonate and juvenile cohorts shows that the sex ratio is balanced at birth and during the first years of life, becoming imbalanced later on.

The surplus males often act in groups of three to eight. They harass the females all day long and injure them. They then lay down beside the females in the evening, ready to start again the next day. The females have little respite and do not have enough time to feed. They are thin, very few exceed 1.6 kg, with a maximum of 1.75 kg and when they lay eggs, they produce half as many as those in the control population.

Unable to escape, the females are regularly driven to the cliff edges, where the obstinate and clumsy males sometimes push them over. On July 18 2023, a GPS device fitted with an accelerometer, attached to a female, recorded her fall of over 20 metres; she died, broken in two, along with her three eggs.

A female broken in two — This female lived on the plateau; she fell from a height of over 20 metres. She was probably pushed by persistent males. Females, who are becoming increasingly rare, are being harassed more and more, creating a vicious circle or
Fourni par l’auteur

Since the start of the study, we have identified almost all the turtles that have been found dead in the field, where their shells remain intact for a long time. Of the females that died, 22% suffered a fatal fall, compared to 7% of the males.

In collaboration with British colleagues, we have also developed an epigenetic clock to estimate the age of individuals from a blood sample.

The oldest males are over 60 years old and the oldest female is 35. These results are consistent with morphological, growth, and demographic analyses. The survival rate is abnormally low among females, due to male aggression.

The vicious circle of extinction

Over time, the decline in the number of adult females, coupled with a drop in their fertility, slows down the renewal of the population, both relatively (the proportion of females) and absolutely (the total number of females). In 2009, we captured 45 adult females in the field, compared to 37 in 2010, 20 in 2024, and just 15 in 2025.

However, it takes a female around fifteen years to reach adulthood. Frustrated by the lack of sexual partners, males mate with other males, carcasses, stones, and immature females. Through this latter behaviour, they prematurely compromise the survival of females and exacerbate their demographic problem.

Population dynamics can be modelled by incorporating the above parameters and others. It is also possible to make predictions. The last female could die in 2083. The males, now deprived of females, will survive for decades, as these tortoises can live for over eighty years and will eventually die out. This is a prediction; perhaps the population, which is currently on the brink of extinction, will recover, even if we cannot see how. While the tortoises’ very slow pace of life has given us the opportunity to observe an extinction vortex in the wild and test a strange theory, intensive field monitoring has provided us with the data and inspiration above all else.

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Xavier Bonnet has benefited from funding from SEE-Life CNRS.

– ref. Self-destructive behaviour among Hermann’s tortoises on a Macedonian island is leading to ‘demographic suicide’ – https://theconversation.com/self-destructive-behaviour-among-hermanns-tortoises-on-a-macedonian-island-is-leading-to-demographic-suicide-282081

May 6, 2026

US declares war in Iran ‘over’ to avoid row with Congress over whether it was legal

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Gawthorpe, Lecturer in History and International Studies, Leiden University

Operation Epic Fury is over. Or at least, that’s what the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, announced on May 5, describing any further US action in the Gulf as purely “defensive”.

Rubio’s insistence that the conflict the US and Israel launched on February 28 achieved its objectives is open for debate. But this change of tone and terminology is likely to reflect arguments that raged in the US Congress as the war approached the two-month mark at the end of April, about whether the Trump administration must seek congressional approval for the conflict as required by US law.

The conflict has become the latest episode in a long struggle between the US Congress and the presidency over which branch of government can legitimately start wars. And, in a surprising way, Donald Trump’s actions seem to be pushing power back towards Congress.

The US constitution splits war powers between the presidency and Congress. It gives Congress the power to raise armies and declare war but makes the president the commander-in-chief of the military. That means that, in theory, you need to get Congress to agree to fund and start a war and the president to agree to wage it.

Since the second world war, this system has been changing. The last time the US formally declared war was in 1942 against Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania – having already declared war on Japan and Germany in December 1941. Since then, presidents have often plunged the country into hostilities on their own authority without getting a declaration of war from Congress.

Congress still needs to fund the military – but, with very few exceptions, the legislature has always done so. Individual members of Congress have generally been happy to let presidents take on the blame for starting wars. After conflicts have started, legislators have been unwilling to cut off funds for the troops in the field. As a result, Congress has given up much of its influence over decisions of war and peace.

But not entirely. The high point of Congressional pushback was in 1973, during the tail end of the Vietnam war, which by then had become extremely unpopular. In this context, Congress challenged the executive branch by passing the 1973 War Powers Resolution (also known as the War Powers Act). It’s this law that is shaping the debate over Iran today.

The War Powers Resolution basically repeats what the constitution says: that Congress has to start wars, but it allows for some flexibility. If there is a surprise attack on US forces, the president can act to repel that attack for 60 days before getting a declaration of war from Congress.

As reasonable as this may sound, every administration since the War Powers Resolution was passed has questioned its constitutionality and refused to be bound by it.

To be sure, some presidents have asked Congress for a statement of political support before launching a major war, as they also had done before the War Powers Resolution was passed. For instance, George H.W. Bush did so before the Gulf war of 1990-91. But when doing so, presidents have generally maintained that they did so purely to ensure national unity, and not because the War Powers Resolution required it of them.

Presidents have also launched many interventions in which they ignored the resolution entirely – as Bush himself did in Panama in 1989.

Unpopular war

As a result, the resolution has never acted as a meaningful constraint on presidential war-making power. But things may be changing. The war in Iran is so unpopular that Congress asserting its authority over war powers more strongly than any time since the War Powers Resolution was passed. In the process, it is turning the resolution into something that might meaningfully affect the course of the war.

One reason for this is that even Trump’s Republican supporters in Congress are aware of how unpopular this war is. Many are worried about losing their seats in the midterms later this year. As a result, Congress is stirring. Even senior Republican figures are treating the War Powers Resolution and its 60-day clock as an important constraint on the administration and demanding that the war stop or be authorised by Congress after it passes that mark.

In response to this political pressure, the Trump administration seems to be paying more attention to the requirements of the War Powers Resolution than most administrations before it.

The White House is too afraid of Republican opposition to ignore the resolution entirely, particularly when it knows that it may soon have to ask Congress for more funding for the war. Even the argument it made that the 60-day clock has paused during the ceasefire is an indication that it sees the clock as a legitimate thing in the first place.

If the war starts up again, Republicans will clamour for the administration to come to Congress for a declaration. This would probably trigger a major debate over the conditions that Congress wants to attach regarding strategy, goals and funding.

What this shows is that many of the checks and balances of the constitution only work when there is the political will to make them work.

Andrew Gawthorpe is affiliated with the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

– ref. US declares war in Iran ‘over’ to avoid row with Congress over whether it was legal – https://theconversation.com/us-declares-war-in-iran-over-to-avoid-row-with-congress-over-whether-it-was-legal-282159

May 6, 2026

College students are noticing their AI-smoothed writing sounds strong — and not like them

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nurul Hassan Mohammad, PhD Candidate, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto

Generative AI has become a part of everyday student life in Canada. While institutions focus on misconduct and detection, a deeper shift is happening, one that concerns identity.

A recent KPMG Canada report finds that 73 per cent of students use generative AI for schoolwork, and nearly half say it is their “first instinct.” Also significant is the finding that many students also report feeling uneasy, worried that their use may be seen as cheating.

The study is based on a survey of 684 university, college, vocational and high school students within a larger sample of 3,804 Canadians (aged 18+), on how people are adopting generative AI.

In my doctoral research on STEM education in Ontario colleges, I’m exploring how AI is transforming not only how students write but also how they perceive voice, legitimacy and what it means to be themselves.

Academic policies can define what constitutes cheating, but they do not address a more subtle concern: if AI helped write my assignment, will I still be seen as capable, and will my work represent me?

Identity takes shape through writing

Writing is more than a technical skill. It is one of the primary ways students structure and elaborate ideas, demonstrate competence and position themselves as emerging professionals.

This is particularly significant in STEM, where programs are often closely linked to specific career paths. Students are expected to begin positioning themselves as future professionals through how they communicate and present knowledge.

At the same time, STEM fields are often seen as primarily technical or data-driven, with writing treated as secondary. Yet research shows that communication is central to scientific practice, shaping how knowledge is constructed, interpreted and shared.

A Black person's hands seen on a laptop keyboard. — Communication shapes how knowledge is constructed, interpreted and shared.
(Allison Shelley/EDUimages), CC BY-NC

AI is part of envisioning career paths

Even beyond this, when science students write assignments, they also undertake what social and cultural theorists describe as “identity work.”

Through writing, students build narratives that let them explore how they might belong in particular worlds or professional fields. In my research, I examine how STEM programs operate as cultural worlds with implicit rules about what counts as smart, credible and legitimate participation.

Students interpret rules and adjust how they portray themselves in their work. This identity work is shaped by prior experiences, confidence with disciplinary language and alignment between personal interests and the STEM career paths they see as being available to them. AI is now part of that process.

‘Kinda generic’

In my research, I have observed college STEM classes, taken field notes and spoken with a cohort of students multiple times over a two year period about their work.

I often hear a version of the same concern: the AI-generated draft is technically strong, but “it does not sound like me.” This concern reflects the insight that “voice” or “sound” in writing is a signal of legitimacy.

In my collaborative work on cultivating student agency, I use the idea of “becoming alive within science education” to describe moments when students can bring more of themselves — their perspectives, ways of thinking and experiences — into how they learn and express ideas.

Yet institutions often favour more standardized forms of writing. AI can intensify this by making a fluent, generic style instantly available. For some students, this lowers barriers and supports access. For others, it feels like self-erasure.

One student put it this way:

“It’s better writing, yeah, it sounds good and helps get a better grade. But it’s kinda generic. Like anyone could’ve written it, not just me.”

This recurring pattern in the data points to a broader tension: phrasing, structure and tone in writing carry traces of identity, traces AI can smooth or erase.

How we think about ourselves

Many of us have likely noticed that AI tools can improve the quality and efficiency of writing and may also lead to more uniform outputs, reducing variation in how ideas are expressed. These concerns are echoed in education guidance.

UNESCO warns that AI systems can shape how knowledge is produced and expressed, raising questions about human agency and originality. Canadian policy discussions similarly highlight both the opportunities and risks of AI for student learning and authorship.

Taken together, these insights suggest how beyond only assisting human writing, AI shapes how voice is expressed and how we think about ourselves.

Policy catching up

Canadian post-secondary institutions are still determining their approach to AI.

Many policies aim to balance flexibility with oversight, allowing limited AI use while emphasizing disclosure and addressing risks such as fabricated citations, bias and privacy issues.

Yet institutions also acknowledge challenges in enforcement.

As policies evolve, uncertainty remains. Students must navigate what is permitted, what constitutes their work and whether it truly reflects who they are.

STEM and belonging

In Canada, participation in STEM fields remains uneven across gender and other social dimensions such as race, Indigenous identity, socioeconomic status and immigrant background.

Many students already question whether they belong, making recognition deeply consequential.

If AI-generated writing becomes the implicit standard for “good work,” students may begin to locate competence in the tool rather than in themselves.

Students who rely on AI may question the authenticity of their success, while those who avoid it may feel at a disadvantage.

What can educators do?

Rethinking learning design is important. Students should not have to guess what is acceptable. Assessments should focus on process that makes students’ thinking visible, not just product.

Significantly, writing in one’s own voice must be treated as a skill worth developing.

In practice, this can be as simple as asking students to explain how they used AI in an assignment, or compare an AI-generated paragraph with their own and discuss what changed in tone, clarity and reasoning.

Instructors might also ask students to revise AI-polished text so it reflects their own thinking, or to identify where their interpretation and uncertainty matter. These and other small shifts help foreground not only what students produce but also how they think and position themselves in their work.

AI is here to stay. The question is whether STEM classrooms will help students use these tools without losing their voice, their agency and their sense of belonging.

Nurul Hassan Mohammad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. College students are noticing their AI-smoothed writing sounds strong — and not like them – https://theconversation.com/college-students-are-noticing-their-ai-smoothed-writing-sounds-strong-and-not-like-them-279436

May 6, 2026

Crèches, écoles… les bâtiments publics au défi d’un nettoyage moins polluant

Source: The Conversation – France (in French) – By Guillaume Christen, Maître de conférences à l’Université de Strasbourg, docteur en sociologie de l’environnement, Université de Strasbourg

Les biocides utilisés dans les produits de nettoyage, en particulier pour la désinfection des bâtiments publics, participent à la pollution de l’eau. Pourtant, des alternatives existent, mais faire évoluer les pratiques est difficile. En cause, la méconnaissance des risques au sein de la filière ainsi que l’organisation du travail actuelle.

Nous manipulons au quotidien des produits contenant des biocides, par exemple pour l’entretien de la maison, l’hygiène personnelle, la lutte contre les nuisibles, etc. En milieu urbain, leur utilisation s’est diffusée dans de nombreuses activités : construction, nettoyage, entretien des espaces verts, etc. On y recourt, par exemple, pour la protection des revêtements de façade afin de lutter contre les mousses et moisissures ou dans des usages domestiques tels que l’hygiène et l’entretien des bâtiments (sols, sanitaires…).

Or, l’utilisation de ces substances contribue à une dégradation de la qualité des eaux. Les solutions envisagées privilégient généralement un traitement des micropolluants après usage. Toutefois, les stations d’épuration ne retiennent que partiellement les molécules polluantes.

Ce constat invite à repenser les usages et à étudier la possibilité d’une réduction à la source. Mais renoncer aux biocides n’est pas une évidence. En effet, il s’agit d’un enjeu environnemental mal identifié par la population. Il requiert aussi des changements de pratiques susceptibles de se heurter à des formes d’inertie.

La question du renoncement aux biocides pour la désinfection (bactéricides, virucides, fongicides) est particulièrement sensible. C’est encore plus vrai dans les secteurs de la petite enfance et de la maintenance de bâtiments municipaux.

Les pratiques en place pour nettoyer les bâtiments publics

Pour comprendre ces enjeux, nous avons mené une enquête sociologique à l’échelle de l’eurométropole de Strasbourg. Celle-ci se fonde sur une trentaine d’entretiens semi-directifs réalisés auprès de la chaîne des acteurs du secteur du nettoyage, en particulier le personnel d’entretien, les responsables techniques et les fournisseurs.

Nous nous sommes appuyés sur l’idée d’une réduction des biocides à la source, à partir du concept de « redirection écologique ». Il ne s’agit pas de simplement optimiser les pratiques existantes, mais bien d’abandonner l’utilisation de certains produits susceptibles de contenir des biocides nocifs.

Dans l’enquête, nous avons cherché à comprendre comment les professionnels de la filière du nettoyage peuvent innover différemment, en utilisant moins de produits chimiques, soit en considérant des alternatives comme la désinfection à la vapeur, soit en privilégiant des composés plus naturels tels que l’acide lactique.

Des micropolluants omniprésents, en particulier les ammoniums quaternaires

Les biocides, dont l’étymologie désigne l’action de neutraliser « les vivants indésirables », sont qualifiés de « micropolluants » en raison de leur faible concentration dans les systèmes aquatiques urbains. Bien que présents en petite quantité, leur impact toxicologique notable sur l’environnement et la santé humaine nécessite notre attention.

Les sources sont, en effet, nombreuses : traitements antibiotiques, PFAS, peintures de façade ou encore désinfectants domestiques, objet de notre propos.

Afin d’assurer la désinfection de certaines surfaces (sols, tables, sanitaires, points de contact), professionnels et particuliers ont recours à l’utilisation de biocides nommés « ammoniums quaternaires » (ou « QUATS »). Or, leur persistance dans l’environnement est préoccupante. Bien qu’il existe d’autres méthodes de désinfection (acide lactique, nettoyage à la vapeur), l’usage de QUATS est la pratique dominante, en partie en raison de leur utilisation reconnue dans le milieu médical. S’il n’est pas possible de quantifier le volume de QUATS introduits dans l’environnement, leur prédominance dans les usages en fait un sujet de santé environnementale, dans une démarche One Health).

Le nettoyage étant une compétence municipale, une commune peut renoncer à l’usage de ces composés. Toutefois, le risque « biocide » est mal identifié par les différents acteurs de la chaîne, ce qui complique sa transmission vers les agents d’entretien qui les manipulent au quotidien.

Un risque invisibilisé par l’« effet de filière »

Il existe en effet un « effet de filière » qui entraîne la délégation de la confiance à des acteurs spécialisés. Cela se traduit par une mise à distance, pouvant être à l’origine d’une « capacité empêchée » des professionnels à formuler une préoccupation environnementale quant à l’usage d’un produit.

Cela se manifeste par une méconnaissance de la composition des produits utilisés, tout au long de la chaîne d’acteurs. Cette perte de savoir s’observe dès les fournisseurs, incapables de transmettre l’information aux responsables techniques et eux-mêmes aux agents. Après usage, les eaux contenant les produits de nettoyage sont collectées et traitées en stations d’épuration. Leur gestion discrète invisibilise le devenir des eaux de nettoyage et la compréhension courante de l’enjeu.

Dans ce contexte, les services techniques de nettoyage, notamment ceux des municipalités, ne font pas de la composition du produit un critère de choix. Ils font confiance aux fournisseurs-producteurs, explique un coordinateur des agents d’entretien d’un établissement scolaire :

« Nous, on est l’utilisateur, on n’est pas le fabricant, donc nous, on arrive à la fin de la chaîne. Nous, on arrive, on dit : “Moi, je veux un produit pour nettoyer.” Après c’est lui, le concepteur, qui dit : “Bah, voilà pour cette tâche, il faut tel grammage, il faut ceci, cela.” Moi, ça, ce n’est pas mon souci. »

Acteurs clés de la filière, fabricants et fournisseurs interviennent dans la définition des pratiques de nettoyage. Ces derniers vendent non seulement des produits d’entretien, mais aussi les préconisations d’application (le type de surface, la fréquence d’utilisation, la préparation, le dosage pour dilution ou encore la méthode de nettoyage), que les agents d’entretien respectent.

Les professionnels perdent ainsi la « trace » et la « mémoire » de la composition chimique des produits d’entretien ainsi que de leurs impacts possibles sur les milieux.

Des alternatives à s’approprier

Désinfecter avec des biocides nocifs (QUATS) n’est pourtant pas inéluctable. L’acide lactique et la vapeur sont deux alternatives déjà utilisées par certains professionnels engagés dans une démarche écologique plus générale. Elles incarnent l’idée d’innover par le « retrait » en incitant à « faire sans » (vapeur) ou « avec moins » (acide lactique).

Ces alternatives qui innovent sans apporter de technologie supplémentaire peinent toutefois à susciter la confiance, dans un contexte où l’innovation technique apparaît comme la clé de lecture légitime. Ces réticences s’expliquent par le fait que l’efficacité est le critère principal servant à juger de la qualité d’un protocole de nettoyage. Or, selon le cercle de Sinner, cette efficacité dépend de quatre facteurs : le temps d’application, l’action mécanique (AM), la température et la chimie utilisée.

Le cercle de Sinner permet de décrire les différentes solutions de nettoyage, en fonction du rôle qu’y jouent quatre composantes : le temps, l’action mécanique, la température et la chimie.
ManonM12/Wikimédia

L’utilisation d’une chimie moins « agressive » se traduit par une augmentation d’au moins un des trois autres facteurs. Ce qui entraîne la modification des pratiques historiques ou même de l’organisation du travail (planning horaire, achat de machines). En d’autres termes, pour nos interlocuteurs, simplifier la chimie du nettoyage revient à complexifier l’organisation quotidienne, freinant l’adhésion aux alternatives.

Le renoncement aux biocides pour l’hygiène suppose de cerner les principaux acteurs impliqués, leur niveau de conscience des impacts (notamment sur la santé et sur l’eau) et les obstacles à l’utilisation d’alternatives. Retrouver des eaux urbaines de qualité et sans pollution est aussi un enjeu d’adaptation dans un contexte de crise écologique : leur réemploi constitue un levier majeur face aux aléas climatiques, par exemple lors des canicules et sécheresses.

ReactiveCity est financé par le programme Interreg VI Rhin supérieur. La recherche associe des chercheurs du département d’hydrologie de l’Université Albert-Ludwig de Fribourg-en-Brisgau (Allemagne), du Groupe de travail sur l’écotoxicologie fonctionnelle aquatique (Université de Coblence-Landau), de l’Institut de chimie durable et de chimie de l’environnement (Université de Leuphana Lüneburg), de l’Institut Terre et environnement de Strasbourg (Ites, porteur du projet) ainsi que du laboratoire Sociétés, acteurs, gouvernement en Europe (Université de Strasbourg).

Guillaume Christen a reçu des financements de l’Union européenne dans le cadre du projet Interreg 6 Rhin supérieur « ReactiveCity : vers une ville pro-active sans biocides » (sept. 2023 – août 2027).

Louise Negri a reçu des financements de l’Union européenne dans le cadre du projet Interreg 6 Rhin supérieur « ReactiveCity : vers une ville pro-active sans biocides » (sept. 2023 – août 2027).

Philippe Hamman a reçu des financements de l’Union européenne dans le cadre du projet Interreg 6 Rhin supérieur « ReactiveCity : vers une ville pro-active sans biocides » (sept. 2023 – août 2027).

– ref. Crèches, écoles… les bâtiments publics au défi d’un nettoyage moins polluant – https://theconversation.com/creches-ecoles-les-batiments-publics-au-defi-dun-nettoyage-moins-polluant-278630

May 6, 2026

Protestant leaders once championed birth control – not to liberate women, but as part of ‘responsible parenthood’

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Samira Mehta, Associate Professor of Women and Gender Studies & Jewish Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

Birth control pills have helped American women control their own bodies, but that wasn’t the main reason for religious leaders’ support. Hulton Archive/Getty Images

Mother’s Day seems like a strange time to celebrate birth control, which, on its most basic level, is about helping people to not become mothers – or not become mothers again.

But in the mid-20th century, much of birth control’s growing support came from attempts to support American women not as feminists, but as mothers. This is the story that I focus on in my 2026 book, “God Bless the Pill: The Surprising History of Contraception and Sexuality in American Religion.” Many religious leaders and U.S. politicians were looking for ways to strengthen the nuclear family, based around a homemaker mother and working father. Expanding legal access to contraception served as a way to make that happen.

Thought leaders who pushed to make birth control more available did not necessarily do so out of a desire to help women control their own bodies. They wanted to protect children and families and believed they were stronger when parents, particularly mothers, could devote intensive time to raising their children – ideally full time. Those views dovetailed with both political needs and Protestant beliefs of the moment.

‘Nuclear Family in the Nuclear Age’

The Cold War may have sprung from geopolitics and nuclear fears, but it was also a form of culture war, with American politicians pitting images of a “godly” United States against “godless communism.”

The nuclear family was a central piece of that propaganda. As historian Elaine Tyler May wrote, politicians, journalists and other public figures trumpeted the ideal of a mother, father and their children living in their own home: the “nuclear family in the nuclear age.” In their depiction, the American family was based on a sexually charged marriage between a beautiful – and fashionable – homemaker mother and a handsome father who could provide for his white, middle-class family.

A man in a suit and a woman with curled hair and red lipstick smile at each other as she holds a white pair of baby shoes. — Birth control made it easier for families to run a household on just one income – many religious leaders’ ideal.
H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images

This idealized family could own a suburban home, one or two cars, and a constantly revolving selection of modern conveniences. Mothers were expected to invest in their appearance, presenting fathers with a delectable wife when they came home from work – plus a sparkling house and a home-cooked meal. In theory, this perfect mother had time, emotional energy and economic resources to parent their children in a very hands-on way.

Some middle- and upper-class Americans could afford this lifestyle, but it was out of reach for many, including many families that were not white. In addition, as Betty Friedan, one of the mothers of second-wave feminism, would articulate in “The Feminine Mystique,” many women who did live that life were not actually happy. That said, the idealized family was a central piece of American rhetoric in the middle of the 20th century – as was religion.

In the 1950s, more Americans attended church and synagogue than in any other decade that century. Around World War II, American figures started to often invoke the phrase “Judeo-Christian” to describe the country – a belated nod to Catholic and Jewish citizens in the still mostly Protestant nation. Nuclear families’ faith was considered a key piece of American defense against a “godless” Soviet Union.

American propaganda contrasted these ideal U.S. families against a vision of communism in which both parents worked. Soviet families were depicted in apartments with a shared kitchen and bathroom down the hall, without the material wonders of capitalism – from a brand new Frigidaire to a Kitchen Aid stand mixer and a Cadillac in the driveway.

In U.S. political rhetoric, the American family lived in technicolor, and the Soviet family lived in black and white.

‘Responsible parenthood’

But affording that vision of the American dream would be easier with fewer children.

Basic birth control methods had been part of American life for a long time – as evidenced by a declining birth rate among the middle and upper class, starting in the middle of the 19th century. “Scientific” birth control that required medical visits, such as diaphragms, had been around since the early 20th century.

A black-and-white photo shows a few women and lots of baby carriages outside a city storefront. — Women with children outside the first birth control clinic in the U.S., in Brooklyn, New York, in 1916.
Circa Images/GHI/Universal History Archive via Getty Images

Diaphragms became more accepted, and in 1936, a U.S. appeals court formally classified birth control as medical equipment. The birth control pill, which had been developed throughout the 1950s, was formally approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 1960.

Different Protestant denominations had slowly come to accept birth control, though the Catholic Church remained staunchly opposed to all except the rhythm method. Contraception turned procreation into a new place where Christians could live morally: not having more children than they could afford, nurture, educate and raise with knowledge of God. Denominational statements from groups as diverse as the Lutherans and the Quakers articulated a Christian form of planned parenthood that they would call “responsible parenthood.” In many ways, it was primarily about motherhood.

In 1960, the Rev. Richard Fagley published “Population Explosion and Christian Responsibility,” the first pan-Protestant theory of responsible parenthood. Fagley, a Congregational minister, called the medical knowledge that led to the contraceptive pill “a liberating gift from God, to be used to the glory of God, in accordance with his will for men.” He went on to say that godly scientific knowledge “affects deeply the size of the family … and therefore has created a new area for responsible decisions.”

While Fagley was the first person to collect various denominations’ views into a cohesive theology, his position represented a Protestant consensus, and his argument was adopted by the National Council of Churches the following year.

Birth control, in this formulation, was not about being child-free, or being able to engage in sex outside marriage. Rather, it allowed couples to decide, prayerfully, how many children they could have, and when they would have them. “Responsible parenthood” framed family size around “Christian duty.”

‘Mother-wife’

The theology of responsible parenthood makes clear that it is not about feminist autonomy for women.

For instance, when the National Council of Churches released a statement on responsible parenthood, the reasons listed for limiting the number of children in the family included “The right of the child to be wanted, loved, cared for, educated, and trained in the ‘discipline and instruction of the Lord’ (Eph. 6:4). The rights of existing children to parental care have a proper claim.” In the 1960s, the person assumed to do the majority of the work to raise a child was the mother.

A woman in a dress and apron with curled hair smiles as she hands a bowl to a seated man in a suit, as two children sit with him at a kitchen table. — Mid-century ideals for women imagined them as full-time mothers and homemakers.
Lambert/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

Religious leaders’ rationale included concern for the woman herself, but in her role as “the mother-wife,” as the statement said – framing women in relationship to the men and children in their lives. Birth control was important inasmuch as it preserved her body and mind to fill those roles. And the occasion for more widespread acceptance of “responsible parenthood” was the advent of the birth control pill, for which women were primarily responsible.

In other words, birth control gained acceptance as a way to perfect married motherhood. But in 1972, the Supreme Court case Eisenstadt v. Baird expanded the right of contraception from married people to single people, including teenage girls.

The religious consensus supporting birth control soon fractured among evangelicals and other conservative Protestants. Not only did they start to see birth control as supporting sex outside of marriage, but also as undermining a mother’s moral guidance of her daughters, who could now access contraception without parental consent. Many more liberal Protestants got quieter as well.

That early, vocal support for birth control has come back in recent years. Battles over the Affordable Care Act and the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson decision have caused liberal Protestant denominations to reaffirm their commitment to reproductive healthcare, including birth control and abortion. That commitment has a long history – even if it is not a strictly feminist history.

Samira Mehta receives funding from the Henry Luce Foundation.

– ref. Protestant leaders once championed birth control – not to liberate women, but as part of ‘responsible parenthood’ – https://theconversation.com/protestant-leaders-once-championed-birth-control-not-to-liberate-women-but-as-part-of-responsible-parenthood-280980

May 6, 2026

Hongrie : les clés du triomphe électoral de Péter Magyar

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Renata Varga, Maitresse de conférences en sciences de l’information et de la communication, Université de Lille

La victoire écrasante du parti Tisza aux récentes élections législatives marque un tournant historique en Hongrie et la fin de seize ans d’hégémonie du Fidesz de Viktor Orban. Ce succès repose sur la capacité de Péter Magyar à fédérer un électorat hétérogène, grâce à une stratégie combinant mobilisation de terrain, communication numérique et récit politique mobilisateur. Son leadership hybride, mêlant incarnation personnelle et crédibilité programmatique, a permis de transformer une dynamique d’opposition en majorité constitutionnelle.

La victoire du parti Tisza (Respect et liberté) aux législatives du 12 avril 2026 face au Fidesz de Viktor Orban a été sans appel. Porté par une participation record de 79,56 %, Tisza a obtenu une majorité constitutionnelle de 141 sièges sur 199, tandis que l’alliance Fidesz-KDNP s’effondrait à 52 sièges. Ce mandat exceptionnel lui confère la légitimité nécessaire pour réviser la Constitution, démanteler le système illibéral et rétablir les conditions d’un fonctionnement démocratique fondé sur l’équilibre des pouvoirs.

Ce résultat est d’autant plus remarquable que le Fidesz semblait indétrônable. Le système électoral avait été conçu pour favoriser son maintien au pouvoir ; les médias, sous son contrôle, diffusaient la propagande gouvernementale, dénigrant systématiquement l’opposition ; enfin, le Fidesz fonctionnant en mode « parti-État », les ressources financières publiques ont été massivement mobilisées en sa faveur durant la campagne. À l’inverse, Tisza, formation récente, ne disposait d’aucun financement public.

Agréger un vote anti-régime

Cette large victoire s’explique par la rencontre, au moment opportun – dans un contexte de crise politique et morale –, entre, d’une part, une forte attente de l’électorat d’opposition et, d’autre part, l’ambition, le talent et l’engagement hors norme de Péter Magyar, président du parti Tisza.

Magyar est parvenu, en à peine deux ans, à construire ex nihilo un parti-mouvement et à fédérer un électorat d’opposition hétérogène autour d’un objectif commun de changement de régime.

Ce ralliement s’est opéré au prix d’une mise entre parenthèses des clivages idéologiques traditionnels. Malgré un positionnement revendiqué à droite, son succès tient avant tout à sa capacité à agréger, dans le contexte d’un régime illibéral, des électeurs aux orientations diverses, y compris de gauche, tout en refusant toute alliance avec les anciens partis d’opposition. Un choix stratégique qui s’est révélé payant.

Au-delà de cette dynamique, Magyar a su enrôler dans son projet de transformation politique des citoyens désireux de changement et prêts à construire une véritable « communauté Tisza », avec 50 000 bénévoles-activistes implantés localement. Il s’est aussi entouré d’une excellente équipe de campagne.

Un travail de terrain intense

La principale force de Péter Magyar réside dans sa capacité de mobilisation et d’occupation de l’espace public. Pendant près de deux ans, il a sillonné le pays, multipliant les déplacements et les rencontres locales. Il est allé chercher des voix aussi bien dans les grandes villes que dans les zones rurales, y compris dans les bastions historiques du Fidesz, sans hésiter à s’exposer dans des contextes hostiles.

La vieille camionnette à plateau de Tisza, une Ford Transit customisée à la bombe aux couleurs nationales sur laquelle il sautait pour prononcer ses discours dans les villages, est devenue légendaire. Cette présence continue et son accessibilité lui ont permis de construire une relation de proximité avec l’électorat.

L’intensité de son travail se mesure à la cadence de ses meetings en fin de campagne. Durant le dernier mois, il en a tenu 108, dont 27 durant les cinq jours précédant l’élection, atteignant jusqu’à sept événements par jour – certains, dès 7 heures du matin.

Stratégie numérique efficace

La présence sur le terrain de Magyar a été amplifiée par une utilisation intensive des réseaux socionumériques, l’autre pilier de sa stratégie de communication. Maîtrisant les codes propres à ces plateformes, il s’est adressé efficacement à des publics différenciés, notamment aux jeunes.

Magyar s’est principalement appuyé sur ses comptes officiels, en particulier sur son compte Facebook – réseau largement dominant en Hongrie –, dont il assurait lui-même la gestion. Sa chaîne YouTube centralisait ses contenus vidéo, avec un recours fréquent aux formats en direct. En parallèle, son activité sur TikTok visait à toucher un public jeune et à construire une image plus informelle, proche des codes des influenceurs ; certaines de ses vidéos y ont dépassé le million de vues.

La diffusion en direct de ses meetings a donné à voir, en temps réel, l’ampleur de la mobilisation et l’enthousiasme suscité par le mouvement. Cette mise en visibilité a renforcé la dynamique militante, contribuant à transformer une présence locale en phénomène politique de portée nationale.

Cette stratégie numérique s’est révélée d’une efficacité redoutable. Magyar s’est imposé comme l’acteur le plus actif du paysage politique en ligne durant les deux années qui ont précédél’élection. Cela a favorisé la mobilisation des sympathisants de Tisza, dont l’activité s’est développée de manière largement organique, avec un niveau très élevé d’interactions et d’engagement.

Un récit symbolique rassembleur

Issu des rangs du Fidesz, Magyar maîtrise les codes et les ressorts de la communication de ses adversaires, qu’il s’est attaché, au cours de sa campagne, à retourner contre eux. Il a aussi élaboré un récit symbolique puissant, capable de concurrencer le récit dominant.

Son discours repose largement sur un usage stratégique des métaphores, empruntant à des registres variés pour dénoncer les dérives politiques et morales des représentants du pouvoir. Orban a ainsi été qualifié de « Don Corleone », de « vieil empereur », ou encore de « drôle de maître du palais carmélite [qui] se pavane dans son domaine à dix milliards de forints » (le forint est la monnaie nationale hongroise, NDLR), autant d’images destinées à frapper les esprits et à désacraliser la figure du pouvoir.

Le recours au folklore hongrois constitue un élément central de son récit. Il mobilise la figure de Döbrögi, un seigneur féodal cruel et cupide, pour incarner une élite prédatrice qui opprime le peuple. En miroir, il s’est identifié à Lúdas Matyi, le jeune berger rusé qui finit par triompher de l’injustice.

À l’instar d’Orban, Magyar puise dans la mémoire collective pour structurer son discours. Toutefois, là où Orban construit un récit fondé sur la menace, la peur et la défense d’une souveraineté assiégée, Magyar propose une narration tournée vers l’espoir et l’avenir. Cette opposition se traduit également dans le symbolisme architectural où les citoyens sont décrits comme des bâtisseurs plutôt que comme des soldats. La transformation politique est présentée comme un processus collectif, progressif, mais aussi comme un mouvement puissant et inéluctable.

Un leadership hybride

La force de Magyar tient à la nature hybride de son leadership. Son mouvement s’est d’abord construit autour d’une forte centralisation et d’une personnalisation assumée de la politique : durant de longs mois, sa campagne a pris la forme d’un véritable one-man-show, faisant de lui l’incarnation même du parti Tisza, au point que son image en est devenue indissociable.

Cependant, cette personnalisation ne s’est pas limitée à une posture de chef charismatique. Magyar a su lui adjoindre une crédibilité politique et institutionnelle, s’imposant comme figure d’autorité et se présentant comme un homme d’État en devenir. À côté de son récit symbolique, il a ancré sa campagne dans les réalités concrètes du pays, en mettant en lumière les dysfonctionnements affectant la vie quotidienne des Hongrois.

Ses déplacements sur le terrain ont joué un rôle central dans cette stratégie. Durant la canicule, il s’est rendu dans des hôpitaux, thermomètre à l’appui, pour dénoncer les conditions de travail du personnel soignant et l’état catastrophique du système de santé. En plein hiver, il a distribué du bois de chauffage aux populations les plus précaires. Il a également multiplié les visites dans des orphelinats afin d’alerter sur les défaillances de la protection de l’enfance, pourtant érigée en priorité par le gouvernement Fidesz.

Ce double registre – symbolique et pragmatique – constitue l’une des clés de son succès. D’un côté, Magyar projette un imaginaire collectif fondé sur la justice et la reconstruction ; de l’autre, il propose une offre politique structurée, élaborée avec l’appui d’experts et formalisée dans un programme détaillé, qui a contribué à rassurer. Ainsi, la victoire de Tisza s’explique par l’habileté communicationnelle de Péter Magyar et sa capacité à articuler incarnation personnelle, ancrage dans le réel et projection collective – symbolique d’une Hongrie heureuse et apaisée.

Action politique et popularité

Dès le lendemain des élections du 12 avril, Magyar s’est attelé à la tâche sans répit : conférences de presse internationales, interviews offensives dans les médias pro-Fidesz, échanges avec des dirigeants étrangers, négociations pour débloquer les fonds européens et constitution du futur gouvernement. Parallèlement, il multiplie les gestes symboliques de rupture : la séance inaugurale de l’Assemblée nationale et sa prise de fonction sont fixées au 9 mai, Journée de l’Europe, marquée par le retour symbolique du drapeau européen au Parlement.

Son usage stratégique des réseaux sociaux – auprès de ses 1,4 million d’abonnés sur Facebook – reste crucial avant sa prise de fonction officielle. Jonglant avec plusieurs figures de leader, il alterne habilement les registres. Il mêle annonces politiques et pression sur le pouvoir sortant, avec des appels à la démission du président de la République et d’autres figures clés ainsi que des alertes sur les destructions massives de documents dans les ministères et les transferts de fonds à l’étranger des oligarques proches d’Orban.

Il partage aussi des contenus plus personnels, comme un selfie à la salle de sport pour inciter les citoyens à l’activité physique à l’approche de l’été. Enfin, il excelle dans l’humour viral : lors d’une visite officielle au palais Sándor, apercevant Orban sur un balcon adjacent, il mime un geste iconique de Martin Scorsese et intitule la vidéo « Absolute Cinema », créant un mème devenu instantanément culte.

Dix jours après le scrutin, une enquête de l’Institut Medián révèle une avance importante de Tisza sur le Fidesz : un écart de 40 points, confirmant la popularité de Magyar, la confiance accordée au parti Tisza et l’ampleur du basculement politique en Hongrie.

Renata Varga ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Hongrie : les clés du triomphe électoral de Péter Magyar – https://theconversation.com/hongrie-les-cles-du-triomphe-electoral-de-peter-magyar-281822

May 6, 2026

The method in Iran’s madness? Closure of Strait of Hormuz echoes a centuries-old Danish play − and is a tragedy for the world order

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Vivek Krishnamurthy, Associate Professor of Law, University of Colorado Boulder

Vessel movements in the Strait of Hormuz are seen on a ship-tracking website. AFP via Getty Images

More than two months into the war in Iran, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz – the key waterway through which more than a third of the international trade in oil and gas passes – remains perilous and uncertain. Underscoring the uncertainty, on May 3, 2026, the Trump administration launched Project Freedom to help stranded ships through the strait. Yet the next day, at least two ships came under fire from Iran.

Iran began blocking the strait to navigation on Feb. 28, after the United States and Israel launched a military campaign against the country. By mid-March, Tehran was demanding tolls of up to US$2 million per vessel. In response, the U.S. imposed what President Donald Trump declared to be a “complete” maritime blockade on Iran and subsequently threatened punishing economic sanctions on any entity that pays Iran’s tolls.

Following Iran’s lead, other nations are now contemplating using their own leverage over crucial choke points closer to their shores. Indonesia floated a proposal to charge tolls on vessels transiting the Strait of Malacca, before walking it back. China has also issued warnings against foreign military vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait.

These events have prompted commentators to warn of the end of a golden era of navigational freedom that the U.S. has underwritten for more than a century. But as an expert on international law, I know that attempts by nations to weaponize their leverage over crucial geographic choke points at sea and on land are nothing new. In fact, they go back at least six centuries.

The Danish roots of sea tolls

From the early 15th century until 1857, Denmark required ships passing through the narrow straits connecting the North Sea to the Baltic Sea to stop at the port city of Helsingør — or Elsinore, as Shakespeare styled it in “Hamlet” — and pay a toll before proceeding.

At their peak, these Sound Dues generated nearly 10% of Danish national revenues. The Sound Dues rankled the maritime powers of the day, but Denmark could easily enforce them thanks to the narrowness of the Øresund Strait, which is less than 3 miles wide at Helsingør.

Ultimately, they were ended not through war but through diplomacy, led in large part by a rising maritime power with a strong interest in open sea-lanes: the United States.

Seeking to increase its trade with Prussia, in 1843 the administration of President John Tyler advised Denmark of the United States’ refusal to pay the Sound Dues because they lacked any basis in international law. Rumors swirled that the U.S. was willing to back up its refusal to pay with force.

After years of uncertainty, the fate of the Sound Dues was resolved by the Copenhagen Convention of 1857. Denmark agreed to abolish the tolls forever in exchange for a one-time, lump-sum payment from the major trading nations. The principle of free navigation of the world’s oceans has largely prevailed since then, in part as a result of subsequent U.S. efforts to exercise these freedoms against those who would restrict them.

How the law developed

The Danish settlement reflected a broader body of law – the law of transit – that had been evolving alongside an international system of sovereign states for centuries.

Its core principle is that when convenience dictates or necessity requires, a country must allow the people, goods and vessels of other nations to pass through its territory for a journey that begins and ends elsewhere. The principle has deep roots in American and international legal history: Thomas Jefferson invoked it when negotiating with Spain, which then controlled Louisiana, to secure the United States’ right to navigate the Mississippi River.

Free transit guarantees have been a feature of every major international order since the Congress of Vienna ended the Napoleonic wars in 1815. Yet in each case, those guarantees have come under pressure as the order that produced them weakened.

Before World War I, restrictions on transit rights multiplied across Europe. The League of Nations, a precursor to today’s United Nations, made strengthening transit rights its first priority in the 1920s. But these arrangements fell apart as fascism rose across Europe and Asia and regimes from Nazi Germany to Imperial Japan denounced their international legal obligations.

The post-World War II order reaffirmed transit rights – through the law of the sea, trade agreements and the laws governing civil aviation – and for decades they held.

The International Court of Justice clarified the governing legal principle for international straits in its very first case, decided in 1949: Any body of water useful to international navigation between two open seas is open to the vessels of all nations.

The U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, concluded in 1982, reaffirmed this rule in holding that countries may not charge tolls on vessels passing through straits within their waters. Although neither Iran nor the U.S. has ratified the convention, the U.S. accepts its provisions on navigational freedom as binding on all countries.

Iran’s levying of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz violates the core legal principle that nations may not exploit advantages of geography to bilk foreigners who need to traverse their land or maritime territory. Yet the American and Israeli military campaign that provoked Iran’s response likewise violates the U.N. Charter’s rules on the use of force.

Such issues are not just limited to the Strait of Hormuz. Indeed, trade law, security commitments and the norms against the unilateral redrawing of borders are all under strain.

Seen in this larger context, China’s warnings against military passage through the Taiwan Strait and Indonesia’s trial balloon over the Malacca Strait are not isolated provocations. They are symptoms of the same underlying condition: an international order losing the shared commitment that has often made its rules enforceable.

In January 2026, Trump told The New York Times that he did not need international law and that his own moral judgment was the only constraint on American foreign policy. Around the same time, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the American-led international order was “fading.”

The Strait of Hormuz is where those trend lines are now colliding – to the detriment of billions of people around the world, and to the idea of an international order based on law rather than the naked exercise of power.

Vivek Krishnamurthy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. The method in Iran’s madness? Closure of Strait of Hormuz echoes a centuries-old Danish play − and is a tragedy for the world order – https://theconversation.com/the-method-in-irans-madness-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-echoes-a-centuries-old-danish-play-and-is-a-tragedy-for-the-world-order-281961

May 6, 2026

Les « world models », lorsque l’intelligence artificielle apprend à comprendre le monde

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Julien Perez, Maître de conférences – IA et apprentissage machine, EPITA

Les systèmes d’intelligence artificielle générative, qui parlent si bien, ne comprennent pas encore le monde. De nouvelles méthodes physiques ou statistiques comme les world models, ou « modèles de monde », permettraient de les doter d’une forme de sens commun, qui leur servirait à mieux simuler la réalité et de mieux interagir avec elle.

Imaginez un enfant qui, après avoir vu une balle rouler derrière un canapé, sait instinctivement qu’elle continue d’exister et peut anticiper l’endroit précis où elle réapparaîtra. Cette capacité fondamentale, que la psychologie appelle la permanence de l’objet, constitue un socle de l’intelligence humaine. Nous ne nous contentons pas de réagir aux images qui frappent notre rétine ; nous simulons en permanence le futur dans notre esprit.

Aujourd’hui, l’intelligence artificielle tente de franchir ce cap décisif. Après l’ère des modèles capables de générer du texte, comme ChatGPT, ou des images, comme Midjourney, une nouvelle frontière se dessine avec les world models (« modèles de monde »). L’enjeu est de taille : il s’agit de doter les machines d’une forme de sens commun physique, spatial et logique pour qu’elles cessent d’imiter… et commencent enfin à comprendre.

Ces modèles montrent d’ores et déjà des résultats prometteurs en laboratoire ou dans des environnements simulés. Néanmoins, leur maturité reste limitée et leur déploiement réel est encore restreint aujourd’hui.

Pourquoi les IA actuelles restent-elles en partie limitées ?

Les systèmes d’IA les plus célèbres aujourd’hui sont des modèles génératifs, à l’instar de Claude ou de ChatGPT. Ceux-ci excellent à prédire le mot suivant dans une phrase ou le pixel suivant dans une image, en s’appuyant sur des corrélations statistiques monumentales.

À partir de cette idée de base, les premières preuves mesurables de raisonnement et de bon sens fonctionnel ont été observées dans l’histoire de l’intelligence artificielle (IA). Cependant, comme le soulignent régulièrement des chercheurs du domaine, tels que Yann Le Cun, directeur scientifique d’AMI Labs ou Fei-Fei Li, directrice scientifique de Worldlabs, ces modèles n’ont pas de représentation interne cohérente de la réalité physique.

C’est ce qui explique notamment leurs fameuses hallucinations : un modèle de langage peut affirmer avec une assurance totale qu’un œuf de vache est un ingrédient de cuisine classique, simplement parce qu’il manipule des concepts sans comprendre pleinement les contraintes biologiques du monde réel. Pour dépasser ce stade de « perroquet stochastique » (« stochastique » désignant un phénomène ou un modèle qui intègre le hasard de manière structurée, comme un calcul de probabilités où l’imprévu devient une donnée clé), l’IA doit intégrer une architecture capable de modéliser les causes et les effets.

Cette ambition n’est pas nouvelle, mais elle bénéficie aujourd’hui d’un alignement technologique inédit. Dès 1943, le neuroscientifique Kenneth Craik suggérait déjà que le cerveau humain fonctionne en construisant des modèles de petite échelle de la réalité pour anticiper les événements. Ainsi, lorsque l’on traverse la rue, notre cerveau imagine d’avance la trajectoire des voitures pour savoir quand il est sûr de passer.

Ce qui a changé depuis, c’est que nous disposons de la puissance de calcul et des cadres mathématiques suffisants pour tester cette hypothèse à l’échelle de machines complexes. L’intérêt pour ces modèles a notamment explosé après les travaux pionniers de David Ha et Jürgen Schmidhuber, en 2018. Ils ont montré qu’une IA pouvait apprendre à conduire dans un environnement virtuel en s’entraînant presque exclusivement dans ses propres « rêves ». Ces « rêves » correspondent à une simulation interne, créée par l’IA elle-même, qui lui permet de tester différentes stratégies sans interagir avec le monde réel.

L’architecture des modèles de monde

Ces auteurs ont introduit la notion de « modèle de monde » : une représentation interne et structurée d’un environnement qui permet à un agent d’anticiper les conséquences de ses actions. Le modèle virtuel synthétise l’information observable pour construire une version abstraite et manipulable du monde réel, facilitant la planification, la simulation et la prise de décision, même dans des situations complexes ou incertaines. Sur le plan technique, un modèle de monde repose sur une mécanique de compression de l’information et de prédiction.

Plutôt que de se contenter d’identifier des objets comme « chat » ou « balle » après apprentissage, un modèle de monde apprend à représenter le monde de manière plus riche et structurée.

Dans un premier temps, le système observe d’énormes quantités de données et en extrait une représentation compacte des dynamiques essentielles, par exemple la trajectoire d’un objet, la rigidité d’une surface ou les interactions spatiales entre plusieurs éléments (la patte du chat qui joue avec la balle). Cette abstraction ne se limite pas à des labels : elle capture des régularités physiques et logiques du monde.

Dans un second temps, le modèle peut simuler des scénarios futurs en utilisant cette représentation (la balle passe sous un fauteuil et le chat essaye de la dégager). Ainsi, si l’agent doté du modèle de monde précédemment décrit envisage une action, elle peut prédire ses conséquences avant même de l’exécuter, dans un environnement potentiellement incertain ou bruité.

Autrement dit, contrairement à la simple classification statistique « ceci est un chat », le modèle de monde apprend une sorte de mini-simulation interne du monde, qui combine perception, compréhension spatiale et logique, et capacité à anticiper.

Ici, l’approche reste statistique, similaire à l’apprentissage par renforcement, mais sans recours direct à des modèles physiques explicites ; elle se fonde uniquement sur les régularités observées dans les données (les balles qui roulent sous les objets en ressortent ou y restent coincées). Cette distinction entre approches statistique et physique devient importante lorsqu’on aborde des environnements complexes et incertains, où les prédictions doivent intégrer la variabilité naturelle du monde réel.

Plusieurs propositions récentes illustrent le potentiel de l’approche statistique des modèles de monde. Le modèle V-JEPA de Meta apprend, par exemple, à comprendre les interactions physiques complexes en regardant simplement des vidéos, sans aucun étiquetage humain. De son côté, Google DeepMind a récemment dévoilé Genie, une architecture capable de créer des mondes virtuels interactifs à partir d’une simple photographie, prouvant que la machine a assimilé auparavant les lois de la physique et de la perspective.

Des applications qui touchent la société

Les répercussions de cette technologie sont massives et dépassent largement le cadre de l’informatique théorique.

En robotique, par exemple, un agent équipé d’un modèle du monde pourrait apprendre à manipuler des objets fragiles ou à se déplacer dans un entrepôt encombré sans passer par des milliers d’heures d’essais physiques coûteux et risqués.

Dans le secteur des véhicules autonomes, des pionniers, comme Wayve, affirment utiliser des modèles du monde pour que les voitures anticipent les comportements difficiles à prévoir des piétons ou des autres conducteurs, là où les systèmes classiques se contenteraient de réagir avec un temps de retard.

Dans le domaine de la santé, les jumeaux numériques sont encore en phase d’exploration et servent à simuler comment une maladie pourrait évoluer en réponse à un traitement expérimental. Toutefois, ces modèles ne donnent pas des prédictions certaines : ils sont dits « probabilistes », ce qui signifie qu’ils reposent sur des calculs de probabilités. Autrement dit, ils estiment plusieurs évolutions possibles d’un patient (amélioration, stabilité, aggravation) et attribuent à chacune une chance de se produire, en fonction des données disponibles et de modèles statistiques. Par conséquent, ces simulations restent des estimations, et non des certitudes. Elles doivent donc être validées avec beaucoup de rigueur, en particulier lorsqu’elles concernent des traitements qui n’ont encore jamais été testés en conditions cliniques réelles.

Les progrès de l’IA nous amènent à repenser ce que signifie réellement « comprendre » et « anticiper » dans un monde complexe. À terme, explorer ces questions pourrait non seulement transformer la technologie, mais aussi notre manière d’appréhender la cognition et la créativité humaines.

Il est important de nuancer l’enthousiasme autour de ces modèles. En dépit des avancées, celles-ci demeurent pour l’instant à l’échelle de la recherche et du développement. Par exemple, dans la robotique et les véhicules autonomes, la majorité des applications sont encore à l’état de prototypes ou de pilotes contrôlés, souvent dans des environnements très structurés.

L’adoption à grande échelle nécessitera de surmonter des défis techniques et réglementaires majeurs, comme la robustesse face à des situations imprévues ou la sécurité dans des contextes réels complexes. Ainsi, ces modèles sont en phase d’expérimentation avancée, et non opérationnels partout et tout le temps – même si leurs perspectives restent très prometteuses.

Julien Perez est membre de bpifrance, directeur de la recherche en AI.

– ref. Les « world models », lorsque l’intelligence artificielle apprend à comprendre le monde – https://theconversation.com/les-world-models-lorsque-lintelligence-artificielle-apprend-a-comprendre-le-monde-281055