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September 25, 2025

In swipe at Trump, Brazil’s Lula tells UN that organized crime is not terrorism

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Thiago Rodrigues, Professor de Relações Internacionais, Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF)

Much of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s address at the opening of the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly was expected.

Condemnation of U.S. interventionism against Brazil and Israeli action in the Gaza Strip have long been part of the rhetoric of the veteran leftist leader. So too has been the need to fight global hunger and speak up for global environmental initiatives.

But, besides those expected major themes, Lula’s speech also embarked on new territory, noticeably on the issue of organized crime and terrorism. “It is worrying to equate crime with terrorism,” Lula noted.

That was a direct reference to U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to equate Latin American organized crime groups with terrorist organizations.

Such conflation has been part of Trump’s agenda since the very first day of his second administration. On Jan. 20, 2025, he signed an executive order that ordered the inclusion of Latin American organized crime groups on the list of designated terrorist organizations.

As a result, entities like Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua, Ecuador’s Los Choneros, Mexico’s Cartel de Sinaloa and El Salvador’s Mara Salvatrucha now share space with Boko Haram and the Islamic State group on the State Department’s list of “Foreign Terrorist Organizations.”

Just rhetoric?

The association between drug trafficking and terrorism is not new in U.S. foreign policy. In the 1980s, groups like Sendero Luminoso in Peru and the Medellín Cartel in Colombia were classified as “narco-terrorists” because they fought their own governments using weapons funded by cocaine trafficking.

Ronald Reagan’s administration presented narco-terrorism as a serious threat to American safety. He sent the Army to combat international trafficking and exhorted Andean countries to turn their military into anti-narcotics troops.

The policy left a strong legacy in countries like Colombia, Peru and Mexico, where armies were converted into a de facto military super-police.

In the process, they lost the capacity to act as effective national defense forces.

After the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the relationship between drug trafficking and terrorism was updated. Islamic fundamentalist groups like al-Qaida were accused by the U.S. Department of State of financing their operations through heroin and other drug trafficking.

With the support of a frightened society, President George W. Bush’s government built an anti-terrorist legal and institutional framework that gave the state exceptional powers to repress anyone it deemed to be a “terrorist.”

And in the post-9/11 world, being a “terrorist” held serious consequences in regard to how U.S. authorities could, and would, treat you.

Terrorists were arrested without formal charges. They were tortured and detained in unknown places for an indefinite period of time. Their assets and property were confiscated, their bank accounts interdicted and their resources absorbed by the authorities without accountability.

Today, when Trump extends the classification of “terrorist” to transnational organized crime groups, the tacit understanding is it allows any Latin American accused of international drug dealing to be treated outside the rules of a democratic state of law. That includes to be captured outside the U.S. with no access to any diplomatic aid, to be sent to Guantánamo or to simply disappear.

Geopolitical pressure

Since the 1970s, the so-called “war on drugs” has been an instrument of U.S. diplomatic and geopolitical pressure. It was used to blackmail governments in Latin America, align repressive policies with U.S. guidelines and justify the presence of military personnel, intelligence and military bases in the region, among other forms of intervention.

Since 2001, the “war on terror” has served similar purposes around the world, but with little impact in Latin America. Now, the new classification for Latin American criminal organizations synchronizes the “war on drugs” with the “war on terror.”

More than rhetoric, the U.S. State Department’s updated list allows the government to reinforce the interventionism in Latin America at a particularly sensitive time.

The U.S. is facing a serious domestic political crisis and an unprecedented global challenge posed by China’s consistent and vertiginous rise as a world economic and military power.

The Chinese economic and commercial presence in Latin America poses a concrete threat to the hegemony that the U.S. established on the continent.

Brazil and Mexico – the region’s largest economies – are making Trump’s trade pressure instruments, such as tariffs, much less effective than expected.

In this context, Trump has deployed a military naval force near the Venezuelan coast, reactivating accusations that the regime led by Nicolás Maduro is a “narco-state.”

Trump accuses Maduro of being the head of a group called the Cartel de los Soles, supposedly formed by high-ranking military personnel. The only sources claiming that such a cartel exists are the U.S. itself and voices linked to the ultra-right Venezuelan opposition in exile. However, the accusation is serious and influences U.S. public opinion.

In the same vein, the U.S. government has just “decertified” Gustavo Petro’s Colombia from its list of countries partnering Washington’s effort to fight transnational drugs trafficking – a move that could lead to economic sanctions and cuts in credit lines, loans and military aid.

Following the drug money

Arguing against this logic of unilateral U.S. action, Lula, in his U.N. address, emphasized multilateral cooperation to combat international drug trafficking. And the focus, in his point of view, must be to go after the economic assets of organized crime groups, and their money laundering strategies.

The mention of money laundering refers to the recent actions taken by the Brazilian Federal Police and other local authorities that uncovered huge money laundering schemes from drug trafficking organizations in Brazil’s largest city, São Paulo.

The scheme was carried out through financial institutions, gas stations, hotels and many other “regular” businesses. The initiatives were considered successful because they led to the arrest and indictment of organized crime financial operators, and not the usual low-level streets dealers – who are invariably poor, and Black.

Lula’s talk of international cooperation likely referred to the inauguration of the Center for International Police Cooperation in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. The center is an initiative to coordinate intelligence efforts in the fight against crimes in the Amazon. It brings together representatives of nine Brazilian states and security forces from eight Pan-Amazon countries – and France, on behalf of French Guiana.

The inclusion of the issue of organized crime in Lula’s speech at the U.N. can be seen as an additional front in his opposition to the government of Trump. Like environmental issues, the issue of organized crime is both an internal and international problem for Brazil.

Thiago Rodrigues não presta consultoria, trabalha, possui ações ou recebe financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que poderia se beneficiar com a publicação deste artigo e não revelou nenhum vínculo relevante além de seu cargo acadêmico.

– ref. In swipe at Trump, Brazil’s Lula tells UN that organized crime is not terrorism – https://theconversation.com/in-swipe-at-trump-brazils-lula-tells-un-that-organized-crime-is-not-terrorism-266125

September 25, 2025

Even a brief government shutdown might hamper morale, raise costs and reduce long-term efficiency in the federal workforce

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gonzalo Maturana, Associate Professor of Finance, Emory University

A sign indicates the closing of federal services during the government shutdown in 2013. AP Photo/Susan Walsh

As the federal fiscal year draws to a close, an increasingly familiar prospect is drawing near in Washington, D.C.: a possible government shutdown. And for federal workers, it couldn’t come at a worse time.

In the fractious and polarized political landscape of the United States, Democrats and Republicans have come to rely on short-term, stopgap funding bills to keep the government operating in the absence of elusive longer-term budget deals.

With the parties currently wide apart over the terms of even a short-term budget resolution, the government is set to shut down on Oct. 1, 2025, barring an 11th-hour deal that appears far off. If the shutdown does happen, it would mark another difficult moment this year for a federal workforce that has so far shed more than 300,000 jobs. This is largely due to ongoing Trump administration efforts to downsize parts of the federal government and restructure or largely eliminate certain government agencies with the stated aim of increasing efficiency.

With a government shutdown, hundreds of thousands of federal employees would be furloughed – sent home without pay until funding resumes.

As a team of financial economists who study labor markets and public sector employment and have examined millions of federal personnel records spanning such government shutdowns in the past, we have found that the consequences reach far beyond the now-familiar images of closed national parks and stalled federal services. Indeed, based on our study of an October 2013 shutdown during which about 800,000 federal employees were furloughed for 16 days, shutdowns leave an enduring negative effect on the federal workforce, reshaping its composition and weakening its performance for years to come.

What happens to workers

Millions of Americans interact with the federal government every day in ways both big and small. More than one-third of U.S. national spending is routed through government programs, including Medicare and Social Security. Federal workers manage national parks, draft environmental regulations and help keep air travel safe.

Whatever one’s political leanings, if the goal is a government that handles these responsibilities effectively, then attracting and retaining a talented workforce is essential.

Yet the ability of the federal government to do so may be increasingly difficult, in part because prolonged shutdowns can have hidden effects.

When Congress fails to pass appropriations, federal agencies must furlough employees whose jobs are not deemed “excepted” – sometimes commonly referred to as essential. Those excepted employees keep working, while others are barred from working or even volunteering until funding resumes. Furlough status reflects funding sources and mission categories, not an individual’s performance, so it confers no signal about an employee’s future prospects and primarily acts as a shock to morale.

Importantly, furloughs do not create long-term wealth losses; back pay has always been granted and, since 2019, is legally guaranteed. Employees therefore recover their pay even though they may face real financial strain in the short run.

A cynical observer might call furloughs a paid vacation, yet the data tells a different story.

An empty hallway in the U.S. Capitol. — An American flag is seen inside the U.S. Capitol Building on Sept. 23, 2025, ahead of a looming government shutdown.
Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Immediate consequences, longer-term effects

Using extensive administrative records on federal civilian workers from the October 2013 shutdown, we tracked how this shock to morale rippled through government operations. Employees exposed to furloughs were 31% more likely to leave their jobs within one year.

These departures were not quickly replaced, forcing agencies to rely on costly temporary workers and leading to measurable declines in core functions such as payment accuracy, legal enforcement and patenting activity.

Further, we found that this exodus builds over the first two years after the shutdown and then settles into a permanently lower headcount, implying a durable loss of human capital. The shock to morale is more pronounced among young, female and highly educated professionals with plenty of outside options. Indeed, our analysis of survey data from a later 2018-2019 shutdown confirms that morale, not income loss, drives the exits.

Employees who felt most affected reported a sharp drop in agency, control and recognition, and they were far more likely to plan a departure.

The effect of the motivation loss is striking. Using a simple economic model where workers can be expected to value both cash and purpose, we estimate that the drop in intrinsic motivation after a shutdown would require a roughly 10% wage raise to offset.

Policy implications

Some people have argued that this outflow of employees amounts to a necessary trimming, a way to shrink government by a so-called starving of the beast.

But the evidence paints a different picture. Agencies hit hardest by furloughs turned to temporary staffing firms to fill the gaps. Over the two years after the shutdown we analyzed, these agencies spent about US$1 billion more on contractors than they saved in payroll.

The costs go beyond replacement spending, as government performance also suffers. Agencies that were more affected by the shutdown recorded higher rates of inaccurate federal payments for several years. Even after partial recovery, losses amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars that taxpayers never recouped.

Other skill-intensive functions declined as well. Legal enforcement fell in agencies that became short of experienced attorneys, and patenting activity dropped in science and engineering agencies after key inventors left.

Official estimates of shutdown costs typically focus on near-term GDP effects and back pay. But our findings show that an even bigger bill comes later in the form of higher employee turnover, higher labor costs to fill gaps, and measurable losses in productivity.

Shutdowns are blunt, recurring shocks that demoralize the public workforce and erode performance. These costs spill over to everyone who relies on government services. If the public wants efficient, accountable public institutions, then we should all care about avoiding shutdowns.

After an already turbulent year, it is unclear whether an upcoming shutdown would significantly add to the strain on federal employees or have a more limited effect, since many who were considering leaving have already left through buyouts or forced terminations this year. What is clear is that hundreds of thousands of federal employees are likely to experience another period of uncertainty.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Even a brief government shutdown might hamper morale, raise costs and reduce long-term efficiency in the federal workforce – https://theconversation.com/even-a-brief-government-shutdown-might-hamper-morale-raise-costs-and-reduce-long-term-efficiency-in-the-federal-workforce-265723

September 25, 2025

Nicolas Sarkozy condamné à 5 ans de prison : une normalisation démocratique ?

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Vincent Sizaire, Maître de conférence associé, membre du centre de droit pénal et de criminologie, Université Paris Nanterre – Université Paris Lumières

L’ancien président de la République Nicolas Sarkozy a été jugé coupable d’association de malfaiteurs dans l’affaire du financement libyen de sa campagne présidentielle victorieuse de 2007. Condamné notamment à cinq ans de prison, il sera convoqué le 13 octobre pour connaître la date de son incarcération. Cet événement inédit dans l’histoire de France s’inscrit dans une évolution des pratiques de la magistrature qui s’est progressivement émancipée du pouvoir politique. Elle couronne le principe républicain, proclamé en 1789, mais longtemps resté théorique, d’une pleine et entière égalité des citoyens devant la loi.

Le 25 septembre 2025, Nicolas Sarkozy a été reconnu coupable d’association de malfaiteurs par le tribunal correctionnel de Paris, qui a considéré qu’il avait tenu un rôle actif dans la mise en place d’un dispositif de financement de sa campagne électorale de 2007 par les dirigeants libyens. Comme on pouvait s’y attendre, cette décision a immédiatement suscité l’ire d’une large partie de la classe politique.

Que l’on conteste la décision en soutenant qu’elle est injuste et infondée, cela est parfaitement légitime dans une société démocratique, à commencer pour les principaux intéressés, dont c’est le droit le plus strict – comme, d’ailleurs, de faire appel du jugement. Mais, dans le sillage de la décision rendue dans l’affaire des assistants parlementaires du Front national, cette condamnation est aussi l’occasion, pour une large fraction des classes dirigeantes, de relancer le procès du supposé « gouvernement des juges ».

Certes, la condamnation peut paraître particulièrement sévère : 100 000 euros d’amende, cinq ans d’inéligibilité et surtout, cinq ans d’emprisonnement avec un mandat de dépôt différé qui, assorti de l’exécution provisoire, oblige le condamné à commencer d’exécuter sa peine de prison même s’il fait appel.

Toutefois, si on les met en regard des faits pour lesquels l’ancien chef de l’État a été condamné, ces peines n’apparaissent pas disproportionnées. Les faits sont d’une indéniable gravité : organiser le financement occulte d’une campagne électorale avec des fonds provenant d’un régime corrompu et autoritaire, la Libye, (dont la responsabilité dans un attentat contre un avion ayant tué plus de 50 ressortissants français a été reconnue par la justice), en contrepartie d’une intervention pour favoriser son retour sur la scène internationale…

Alors que la peine maximale encourue était de dix ans de prison, la sanction finalement prononcée ne peut guère être regardée comme manifestement excessive. Mais ce qui est contesté, c’est le principe même de la condamnation d’un responsable politique par la justice, vécue et présentée comme une atteinte intolérable à l’équilibre institutionnel.

Si l’on prend le temps de la mise en perspective historique, on constate pourtant que les jugements rendus ces dernières années à l’encontre des membres de la classe dirigeante s’inscrivent, en réalité, dans un mouvement d’émancipation relative du pouvoir juridictionnel à l’égard des autres puissances et, en particulier, du pouvoir exécutif. Une émancipation qui lui permet, enfin, d’appliquer pleinement les exigences de l’ordre juridique républicain.

L’égalité des citoyens devant la loi, un principe républicain

Faut-il le rappeler, le principe révolutionnaire proclamé dans la nuit du 4 au 5 août 1789 est celui d’une pleine et entière égalité devant la loi, entraînant la disparition corrélative de l’ensemble des lois particulières – les « privilèges » au sens juridique du terme – dont bénéficiaient la noblesse et le haut clergé. Le Code pénal de 1791 va plus loin encore : non seulement les gouvernants peuvent voir leur responsabilité mise en cause devant les mêmes juridictions que les autres citoyens, mais ils encourent en outre des peines aggravées pour certaines infractions, notamment en cas d’atteinte à la probité.

Les principes sur lesquels est bâti le système juridique républicain ne peuvent être plus clairs : dans une société démocratique, où chaque personne est en droit d’exiger non seulement la pleine jouissance de ses droits, mais d’une façon générale, l’application de la loi, nul ne peut prétendre bénéficier d’un régime d’exception – les élus moins encore que les autres. C’est parce que nous avons l’assurance que leurs illégalismes seront sanctionnés effectivement, de la même façon que les autres citoyens et sans attendre une bien hypothétique sanction électorale, qu’ils et elles peuvent véritablement se dire nos représentantes et représentants.

Longtemps, cette exigence d’égalité juridique est cependant restée largement théorique. Reprise en main et placée dans un rapport de subordination plus ou moins explicite au gouvernement, sous le Premier Empire (1804-1814), la magistrature est demeurée sous l’influence de l’exécutif au moins jusqu’au milieu du XX^e siècle. C’est pourquoi, jusqu’à la fin du siècle dernier, le principe d’égalité devant la loi va se heurter à un singulier privilège de « notabilité » qui, sauf situations exceptionnelles ou faits particulièrement graves et médiatisés, garantit une relative impunité aux membres des classes dirigeantes dont la responsabilité pénale est mise en cause. Il faut ainsi garder à l’esprit que la figure « du juge rouge », popularisée dans les médias à la fin des années 1970, vient stigmatiser des magistrats uniquement parce qu’ils ont placé en détention, au même titre que des voleurs de grand chemin, des chefs d’entreprise ou des notaires.

La donne ne commence à changer qu’à partir du grand sursaut humaniste de la Libération qui aboutit, entre autres, à la constitution d’un corps de magistrats recrutés sur concours, bénéficiant à partir de 1958 d’un statut relativement protecteur et d’une école de formation professionnelle spécifique, l’École nationale de la magistrature. Ce corps se dote progressivement d’une déontologie exigeante, favorisée notamment par la reconnaissance du syndicalisme judiciaire en 1972. Ainsi advient une nouvelle génération de juges qui, désormais, prennent au sérieux la mission qui leur est confiée : veiller en toute indépendance à la bonne application de la loi, quels que soient le statut ou la situation sociale des personnes en cause.

C’est dans ce contexte que survient ce qui était encore impensable quelques décennies plus tôt : la poursuite et la condamnation des notables au même titre que le reste de la population. Amorcé, comme on l’a dit, au milieu des années 1970, le mouvement prend de l’ampleur dans les décennies suivantes avec la condamnation de grands dirigeants d’entreprises, comme Bernard Tapie, puis de figures politiques nationales, à l’image d’Alain Carignon ou de Michel Noir, députés-maires de Grenoble et de Lyon. La condamnation d’anciens présidents de la République à partir des années 2010 – Jacques Chirac en 2011, Nicolas Sarkozy une première fois en 2021 – achève de normaliser cette orientation ou, plutôt, de mettre fin à l’anomalie démocratique consistant à réserver un traitement de faveur aux élus et, plus largement, aux classes dirigeantes.

Procédant d’abord d’une évolution des pratiques judiciaires, ce mouvement a pu également s’appuyer sur certaines modifications du cadre juridique. Ainsi de la révision constitutionnelle de février 2007 qui consacre la jurisprudence du Conseil constitutionnel suivant laquelle le président de la République ne peut faire l’objet d’aucune poursuite pénale durant l’exercice de son mandat, mais qui permet la reprise de la procédure dès la cessation de ses fonctions. On peut également mentionner la création, en décembre 2013, du Parquet national financier qui, s’il ne bénéficie pas d’une indépendance statutaire à l’égard du pouvoir exécutif, a pu faire la preuve de son indépendance de fait ces dernières années.

C’est précisément contre cette évolution historique qu’est mobilisée aujourd’hui la rhétorique de « la tyrannie des juges ». Une rhétorique qui vise moins à défendre la souveraineté du peuple que celle, oligarchique, des gouvernants.

Vincent Sizaire ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Nicolas Sarkozy condamné à 5 ans de prison : une normalisation démocratique ? – https://theconversation.com/nicolas-sarkozy-condamne-a-5-ans-de-prison-une-normalisation-democratique-266101

September 25, 2025

Why the EU has no choice but to respond to Donald Trump’s bullying on tech regulation with a coercion investigation

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesco Grillo, Academic Fellow, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University

Back in November 2023 – a time when it wasn’t even clear that Donald Trump would be allowed to run in the upcoming presidential primaries – the European Union approved a tough new “anti-coercion instrument”.

This stated: “Economic coercion exists where a non-EU country applies or threatens to apply a measure affecting trade or investment in order to prevent or obtain the cessation, modification or adoption of a particular act by the EU or a Member State, thereby interfering in the legitimate sovereign choices of the EU or a Member State”.

At the time, the threats were all coming from Russia, which stood accused of interfering in election campaigns, and undermining trust in liberal democracy.

Yet that regulation now seems a perfect fit for the US under a president who is threatening “substantial additional tariffs” against countries he deems to be imposing unfair laws against tech companies. Europe, where those digital regulations were literally invented, is now the clear target of Trump’s ire. Although I would argue that the EU’s approach to regulating in this area has some serious problems, it should not risk bowing to US pressure. The union would lose credibility if it showed that it does not believe in its own rules.

In just eight years, European institutions have approved ten laws in the digital space. The legislation spans 591 articles and covers 1,091 pages. This would have been a monumental effort, with each regulation stemming from the work of potentially hundreds of lawyers, experts and policymakers. That’s even before the EU’s three different institutions (commission, parliament, and council) all had their say.

The problem, though, is that the more articles you have regulating interconnected activities, the more likely you are to find contradictions among them. Paradoxically, the firms that may be more damaged by the necessity to comply tend to be European start-ups, which are generally too small to afford the fees needed to pay lawyers who can help them make sense of such complex legislation.

Added to this is the fact that the phenomena we are trying to govern is extremely radical and unprecedented (especially large language model artificial intelligence). We therefore don’t yet know what the impact of digital change will be and whether the regulations in place are the right ones. Indeed, it’s almost inevitable that such detailed regulation contains what will eventually turn out to be mistakes as circumstances change.

But while EU digital regulation is far from perfect, the bloc cannot allow a third party to bully its way to changing the rules. EU regulation is suboptimal but it is not targeting “incredible American tech companies”, as Trump suggests.

True, elements of the Digital Service Act only apply to “very large platforms” (with over 45 million users in the EU), but while the majority of the 19 giants meeting this threshold are American, the list also includes three Chinese, one Canadian and three European companies.

In fact, some of the comments made by the US president arguably meet the description of actions that the Anti-Coercion Instrument is designed to sanction.

Fighting fire with fire

Trump has put in the bluntest terms that “digital taxes, legislation, rules or regulations are all designed to harm, or discriminate against, American technology”. He has said: “unless these discriminatory actions are removed, I, as President of the United States, will impose substantial additional Tariffs”. This is “threatening a measure affecting trade or in order to obtain the cessation of a particular act by the Union”. Not to open a case to investigate the US on these points would send a dangerous message that competitors (or former allies) can meddle in European sovereign affairs.

The activation of countermeasures would require a qualified majority at the European Council which would not be impossible to reach: 55% of the member states (15 out of 27 would be enough) representing 65% of the population (the sum of Germany and France is one third of the total). In any case, even if a qualified majority is not reached, the exercise is still worthwhile. It would be helpful to know which member states are still serious about being part of a (sovereign) union and which of them would rather go for a union “à la carte”. This latter option is not, logically, good enough for times that require the EU to react quickly to crises.

Trump has taken a similar approach to the EU’s renewable energy policy, calling for member states to dismantle their wind turbines.

The times in which we are living will soon force Europe into a make or break decision. This is what Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister and author of the report currently guiding the EU’s competitiveness, hinted saying recently when he said: “we have been reminded, painfully, that inaction threatens not only our
competitiveness but our sovereignty”. Europe cannot afford to give the impression that it has lost faith in its ability to be free.

Francesco Grillo is affiliated with Vision, the Italian think tank.

– ref. Why the EU has no choice but to respond to Donald Trump’s bullying on tech regulation with a coercion investigation – https://theconversation.com/why-the-eu-has-no-choice-but-to-respond-to-donald-trumps-bullying-on-tech-regulation-with-a-coercion-investigation-265618

September 25, 2025

Vanishing waters in a warming world

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, The Conversation

In some places, the Caspian Sea has already retreated 50km. S. Melkin / shutterstock

This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage was first published in our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter, Imagine.

Around the world, rivers and lakes that sustained civilisations for millennia are vanishing before our eyes. The Caspian Sea – the world’s largest inland body of water – has shrunk dramatically in just a few decades. The Ganges nourishes hundreds of millions of people across India and Bangladesh, yet is drying at a rate scientists say is unprecedented in the past thousand years.

Climate change isn’t solely to blame for the woes of the Caspian or the Ganges, of course. In nearly all cases, what’s going on is some combination of human and climate factors. But there is a trend.

Let’s start with rivers.

Writing in 2022, Catherine E. Russell, then of the University of Leicester, notes that:

“The Loire in France broke records in mid-August for its low water levels, while photos circulating online show the mighty Danube, Rhine, Yangtze and Colorado rivers all but reduced to trickles.”

In her analysis of why rivers worldwide are running dry, she points out that:

“climate change is altering where freshwater is found: such that, in general, places with plenty are getting more while places with little are getting less.”

She says this is making rivers more “flashy”: prone to breaking records for both high and low water levels. The flashiness is exacerbated by humans extracting water and putting rivers in concrete straitjackets.

So what we’re seeing isn’t just a series of droughts. These drying rivers represent a structural change in how water is moving through the land, driven by climate change but also decades of overuse and engineering decisions.

This is particularly apparent in the Ganges, India’s largest and longest river. There, “stretches of river that once supported year-round navigation are now impassable in summer. Large boats that once travelled the Ganges from Bengal through Varanasi now run aground where water once flowed freely.”

That’s according to Mehebub Sahana, a rivers expert at the University of Manchester, who has written about a new study that puts the current drying in historical context. Scientists in India, writes Sahana, gathered 1,300 years of flow data and say the river and its wider system of tributaries has never faced dry spells as severe as it has in the past decade.

Sandbanks on the shores of the Padma River (the local name for the Ganges) in Bangladesh. Dams upstream in India have meant there is less water flowing into the Padma.
Pavel Vatsura / shutterstock

As the world warms, Sahana notes, “the monsoon which feeds the Ganges has grown increasingly erratic”. But there are other factors at play: “Water has been diverted into irrigation canals, groundwater has been pumped for agriculture, and industries have proliferated along the river’s banks. More than a thousand dams and barrages have radically altered the river itself.”

In Sahana’s words, this results in “a river system increasingly unable to replenish itself”.

To save the Ganges, India will have to extract less groundwater and irrigation water. Upstream India and downstream Bangladesh will have to better coordinate their efforts. And major funding and political agreements “must treat rivers like the Ganges as global priorities”.

‘A relatively new phenomenon’

Something similar is happening with lakes.

While at Keele University, the geographer Antonia Law looked at the climate-related threat to lake wildlife.

She notes there has already been a “staggering decline” in freshwater species diversity since the 1970s, but that “climate change [now] threatens to drive even deeper losses”.

“Lake heatwaves – when surface water temperatures rise above their average for longer than five days – are a relatively new phenomenon. But by the end of this century, heatwaves could last between three and 12 times longer and become 0.3°C to 1.7°C hotter. In some places, particularly near the equator, lakes may enter a permanent heatwave state. Smaller lakes may shrink or disappear entirely, along with the wildlife they contain, while deeper lakes will face less intense but longer heatwaves.”

Needless to say, this is not great news for any person or animal that relies on those lakes. That’s particularly the case as “unlike those living elsewhere, most lake animals cannot simply move to another habitat once their lake becomes uninhabitable”. Many lakes, says Law, are on course for “a sweltering, breathless and lifeless future”.

That’s the case even for the biggest lake (sort of) of all: the Caspian Sea.

Here’s Simon Goodman, an ecologist at the University of Leeds who has tracked the seals in the Caspian for more than two decades:

“Once a haven for flamingos, sturgeon and thousands of seals, fast-receding waters are turning the northern coast of the Caspian Sea into barren stretches of dry sand. In some places, the sea has retreated more than 50km. Wetlands are becoming deserts, fishing ports are being left high and dry, and oil companies are dredging ever-longer channels to reach their offshore installations.”

Goodman says variations in the Caspian Sea level were once linked to agricultural irrigation (the same thing that caused the Aral Sea to disappear a few hundred miles to the east), but “now global warming is the main driver of decline”.

That’s because rising temperatures are disrupting the water cycle. Rivers and rainfall are bringing less water, while the hotter sun is evaporating more water than ever. With no link to the wider oceans (aside from a single canal, which is also drying up), the Caspian just can’t keep up.

As things stand, Goodman says, the decline could eventually reach 18 metres, “which is about the height of a six-storey building”. “Even an optimistic ten-metre decline would uncover 112,000 square kilometres of seabed – an area larger than Iceland.”

The five countries around the Caspian Sea have recognised the danger. The world does not need another Aral Sea. But Goodman fears “the rate of decline may outstrip the pace of political cooperation”.

There are many more stories like these. We’ve looked at the Ganges and the Caspian Sea, but this could easily have been a newsletter about Lake Victoria, the world’s second largest freshwater lake, or about drying rivers in Europe making it harder to generate nuclear power (pushing up energy prices in the UK), or about the complete disappearance of Bolivia’s second largest lake.

In all these cases, it’s worth remembering that once a river runs dry or a lake shrivels up, it’s not just water that disappears: it’s entire ecosystems and ways of life.

– ref. Vanishing waters in a warming world – https://theconversation.com/vanishing-waters-in-a-warming-world-266001

September 25, 2025

Why some people are purposefully having their legs broken by cosmetic surgeons

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Spear, Professor of Anatomy, University of Bristol

Limb lengthening surgery creates an intentional fracture in order to encourage new bone growth. Pixel-Shot/ Shutterstock

Would you willingly have your legs broken, the bone stretched apart millimetre by millimetre and then spend months in recovery – all to be a few centimetres taller?

This the promise of limb-lengthening surgery. A procedure once reserved for correcting severe orthopaedic problems, it has now become a cosmetic trend. While it might sound like a quick fix for those hoping to make themselves taller, the procedure is far from simple. Bones, muscles, nerves and joint all pay a heavy price – and the risks often outweigh the rewards.

Limb lengthening is not new. The procedure was pioneered in the 1950s by Soviet orthopaedic surgeon Gavriil Ilizarov, who developed a system to treat badly healed fractures and congenital limb deformities. His technique revolutionised reconstructive orthopaedics and remains the foundation of current practice today.

While the number of people undergoing cosmetic limb-lengthening surgery each year still remains relatively small, the procedure is growing in popularity. Specialist clinics in the US, Europe, India and South Korea report increasing demand – with procedures costing tens of thousands of pounds.

Reports suggest that in some private clinics, cosmetic cases of limb-lengthening surgery now outnumber medically necessary ones. This reflects a cultural shift, where people are willing to undergo a demanding, high-risk medical procedure to meet social ideals about height.

Surgeons begin by cutting through a bone – usually the femur (thigh bone) or tibia (shin bone). To ensure the existing bone stays healthy and that new bone can grow, surgeons are careful to leave intact its blood supply and periosteum (the soft issue that covers the bone).

Traditionally, the cut bone segments were then connected to a bulky external frame which was adjusted daily to pull the two ends apart. But more recently, some procedures have adopted telescopic rods placed inside of the bone itself.

These devices can be lengthened gradually using magnetic controls from outside the body – sparing patients the stigma of an external frame and reducing the risk of infection. However, they’re not suitable for all patients – especially children – and are considerably more expensive than external systems.

A digital drawing depicting a leg bone with a metal frame screwed into it. — The device is gradually adjusted each day to encourage bone growth.
Love Employee/ Shutterstock

Regardless of whether the device sits outside or within the bone, the process is the same. After a short healing period, the device is adjusted to separate the cut ends very gradually, usually by about one millimetre per day. This slow separation encourages the body to fill the gap with new bone – a process called osteogenesis. Meanwhile, the muscles, tendons, blood vessels, skin and nerves stretch to accommodate the change.

Over weeks and months this can add up to a gain of five to eight centimetres in height from a single procedure – the limit most surgeons consider safe. Some patients undergo operations on both the femur and tibia, aiming to gain as much as 12–15 centimetres in total. However, complication rates rise sharply with each centimetre of additional growth. Complications include joint stiffness, nerve irritation, delayed bone healing, infection and chronic pain.

Intense pain

The underlying challenge of limb-lengthening surgery is the same: the body must constantly repair a bone that is being pulled apart.

When a bone breaks, a blood clot rapidly forms around the fracture. Bone cells (ostoblasts) create a callus (soft cartilage) that stabilises the break. Over weeks, osteoblasts replace this cartilage with new bone that gradually remodels to restore strength and shape.

In limb-lengthening surgeries, however, the fracture is continuously pulled apart. This means the body’s repair process is constantly interrupted and redirected, generating a column of delicate new bone where hardening is delayed.

The process is intensely painful. Patients often require strong painkillers. Physiotherapy is also essential to maintain movement. Yet, even when the surgery succeeds, people may still be left with weakness, altered gait or chronic discomfort.

There’s also the psychological burden that comes alongside the procedure. Recovery can take a year or more – much of it spent with restricted mobility. Some patients report depression or regret, particularly if the modest gain in height does not deliver the hoped-for improvement in confidence.

Muscles and tendons are also forced to lengthen beyond their natural capacity, which can lead to stiffness. Nerves are especially vulnerable. Unlike bone, they cannot regenerate across long distances. Healthy nerves can stretch by perhaps 6–8% of their resting length – but beyond this, the fibres begin to suffer injury and become impaired.

Patients often experience tingling, numbness or burning pain during lengthening. In severe cases, nerve damage may be permanent. Joints, immobilised for months, are at risk of stiffening or developing arthritis because of changes to how force and weight are distributed.

The rise of cosmetic limb-lengthening illustrates a broader trend in aesthetic surgery – where increasingly invasive procedures are offered to people without medical need. In theory, almost anyone could gain a few centimetres of height. But in practice, it means months of broken bones, fragile new tissue, exhausting physiotherapy and the constant risk of complications.

For those with medical need, the benefits can be life-changing. But for those seeking only to add a little height, the question remains whether enduring months of pain and uncertainty is really worth it.

Michelle Spear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why some people are purposefully having their legs broken by cosmetic surgeons – https://theconversation.com/why-some-people-are-purposefully-having-their-legs-broken-by-cosmetic-surgeons-265015

September 25, 2025

Not all diabetes is about sugar – understanding diabetes insipidus

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

Diabetes mellitus – known to many as type 1 and type 2 diabetes – gets all the attention with its rising global prevalence and connection to lifestyle and autoimmunity. Meanwhile, its lesser-known relative – diabetes insipidus – more quietly affects hundreds of thousands of people worldwide, but is an altogether different condition, unrelated to blood sugar.

Both forms share the same defining symptom: excessive urination. The word diabetes comes from ancient Greek meaning “passing through”, which perfectly captures what happens to newly affected patients.

In the more-familiar diabetes mellitus, sugar builds up in the blood because the body either doesn’t make enough insulin or can’t use it properly. When this happens, extra sugar enters the urine, and that sugar pulls water out of the body along with it.

People with diabetes may notice that they need to urinate more often and in larger amounts than usual. Sometimes, the urine can even have a sweet smell. Legend has it that Hippocrates, the “father of medicine”, used to taste his patients’ urine to make the diagnosis. Thankfully, we now use dipstick tests instead.

Diabetes insipidus is very different from diabetes mellitus. It has nothing to do with blood sugar. Instead, the problem is with a hormone called arginine vasopressin (AVP), also known as anti-diuretic hormone (ADH), which normally helps the body control how much water it keeps or loses.

This chemical messenger, produced by the pituitary gland at the base of your skull, acts like your body’s water conservation system. When you need to hold on to fluid – say, when you’re dehydrated – AVP tells your kidneys to reabsorb water rather than letting it escape in urine.

When this system breaks down, the results are dramatic. Without enough AVP, or when the hormone fails to function properly, your kidneys lose their ability to conserve water. No matter how much you drink, you remain perpetually thirsty and dehydrated, producing large volumes of pale, diluted urine. It’s a frustrating cycle that affects around 2,000 to 3,000 people in the UK alone.

The most common culprit is AVP-deficiency (formerly called central diabetes insipidus), where the problem lies in AVP production itself. It’s actually made in a brain region called the hypothalamus before being transported to the pituitary gland, from where it is released.

Brain tumours can damage this delicate system, as can head injuries or brain surgery. Genetics sometimes plays a role, and neurological infections like syphilis or tuberculosis can also disrupt hormone production. In some cases, however, doctors are unable to identify a clear cause.

Pregnancy brings its own unique version called gestational diabetes insipidus. The growing placenta produces an enzyme that breaks down AVP in the bloodstream before it can do its job. Fortunately, this rare condition typically resolves after birth.

For AVP-deficiency, treatment is more straightforward. Patients can take desmopressin, a synthetic version of AVP available as tablets, injections, or even a nasal spray. This replacement therapy effectively restores the body’s ability to conserve water.

Things get trickier with AVP-resistance (formerly called nephrogenic diabetes insipidus), where the kidneys themselves fail to respond to AVP.

Sometimes present from birth, this form can also develop later due to kidney damage from electrolyte imbalances or certain medications. Lithium, commonly used to treat bipolar disorder, is one such example. Since the problem is the kidneys’ inability to respond to AVP, different medications are used. Low-salt diets and careful attention to staying hydrated are also key.

When thirst goes wrong

Perhaps most puzzling is dipsogenic diabetes insipidus, where the brain’s thirst centre goes haywire.

Also located in the hypothalamus, this control centre can be damaged by tumours, trauma, or infections, leading to an insatiable urge to drink water. The excessive fluid intake then suppresses AVP production, creating a vicious cycle. Dangerously, it can dilute blood sodium levels, causing headaches, confusion and even seizures.

The symptoms of this condition sometimes overlap with psychogenic polydipsia, where mental health disorders – particularly schizophrenia – drive compulsive water drinking. The consequences can be severe, as seen in one documented case where a young patient suffered complications after consuming an astounding 15 litres of water per day.

These extreme examples of pathological water intake stand alongside wellness trends promoting excessive hydration as part of a healthy lifestyle. NFL quarterback Tom Brady has famously recommended drinking around two gallons daily – nearly eight litres.

Tom Brady wearing a football helmet. — Tom Brady recommends drinking two gallons of water a day.
Steve Jacobson / Shutterstock.com

While we’re often told to drink more water to avert dehydration, constipation, kidney stones and the like, there’s clearly a dangerous level. Sustained or unexplained high water consumption is not only toxic to the body but may be a sign of an underlying health problem.

Diabetes insipidus reminds us that the term “diabetes” encompasses more than blood sugar problems. This other diabetes may be less common, but for those affected, the consequences of leaving the condition untreated may prove severe. Anyone experiencing persistent excessive thirst, water consumption, and urination should seek medical attention promptly. The cause may turn out to be sugar, hormones, or something else entirely.

Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Not all diabetes is about sugar – understanding diabetes insipidus – https://theconversation.com/not-all-diabetes-is-about-sugar-understanding-diabetes-insipidus-265108

September 25, 2025

Donald Trump hints at leaving Europe to defend Ukraine alone

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

Tuesday was an extraordinary day at the United Nations in New York. Taking the stage to address the general assembly of world leaders, the US president, Donald Trump, told the gathering: “Your countries are going to hell.” In 57 astonishing minutes at the podium, he questioned the purpose of the UN itself which, he said, had offered nothing but “empty words” to solve the many conflicts raging in the world.

Worse, it was “funding an assault on western countries and their borders” via its support for uncontrolled migration. The UN had also, he claimed, fallen for the massive “con job” of climate change.

He saved his choicest accusations for later when he took to his TruthSocial platform to accuse UN staff of deliberately sabotaging an escalator which malfunctioned as he and the first lady were riding it to the assembly chamber and his teleprompter which stopped working as he began his speech.

David Curran researches UN peacekeeping programmes at Coventry University. His impression was that Trump sounded as if he was pitching to replace the UN with a series of US-dominated bilateral relationships, when he offered “the hand of American leadership and friendship to any nation in this assembly that is willing to join us in forging a safer, more prosperous world”.

Curran’s main concern, listening to the speech, was that the US president’s attitudes could prove contagious. “Trump’s perspectives on sovereignty, climate change and migration may embolden other political leaders who want to push similar agendas,” he writes. “It has the danger of going beyond rhetoric.”

But later, while an astonished world was checking the transcript of his speech to see if they’d heard him right, Trump announced on TruthSocial that: “Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form.”

To many people, initially at least, it sounded as if Trump had decided to take a stand on the side of Ukrainian national sovereignty. He’d just been chatting with the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. And it’s long been said about the US president that he often repeats the talking points of the last person he has spoken with.

But there was something about the way Trump framed his Truth Social message. Particularly the words “Good luck to all!” with which he signed off. Richard Whitman and Stefan Wolff believe this is a strong hint that the US president is preparing to walk away from the war in Ukraine.

He has signally failed to solve the war “in 24 hours” as he promised on the campaign trail. And for all his talk of how with the help of Nato Kyiv could repel the Russian invader, he committed the US to nothing beyond selling arms to the rest of Nato to give to Ukraine.

This, they believe, leaves Ukraine and the “coalition of the willing” scrambling to develop and fund a coherent defence strategy at a time when – as we’ve seen in the past few weeks – Russia has been testing Nato’s European defence capability with multiple incursions into Nato airspace.

“Europeans also need to keep the US engaged as much as possible, literally by buying Trump off, because they currently lack critical capabilities that will take time for them to develop themselves,” they write. “And while building better defence capabilities for themselves they will need to keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia to keep it from losing the war.”

Dystopian vision

Zelensky made his own speech to the UN this week. And it made for headlines as stark as those that greeted Trump’s UN address the previous day. Zelensky outlined a dystopian vision of the way wars will increasingly be fought, based on what is happening in his country.

He spoke of areas “stretching for dozens of kilometres where nothing moves, no vehicles, no life. People used to imagine that [scenario] only after a nuclear strike – now it’s [a] drone reality.”

He warned of a coming nightmare marriage of drone technology and artificial intelligence (AI) producing drones operating in autonomous swarms. And he pointed to a world where the capability to build new and more dangerous weapons was no longer something confined to states, but something that would be within the capability of terrorists or criminal groups.

Mark Lacy researches the changing character of war and international politics at Lancaster University. He worries that the world is already seeing increasingly sophisticated tactics to harness developments in technology and worries that the ability to regulate or counter them is lagging behind.

But more worrying still is the increased potential that as leaders such as Putin play with the possibilities of brinkmanship by testing his adversaries’ defences in the way he has been doing recently, the idea of a mistake tipping over into open war becomes more possible.

Uncertain future for a Palestinian state

In his UN speech, the US president also had some harsh words to say about the countries that have recently recognised the state of Palestine. It was essentially another stick to beat the UN with, but he heaped all the blame for the conflict on Hamas. Clearly Hamas must bear its share, but Trump had nothing to say about the conduct of the war by the Netanyahu government in Israel.

Whatever Trump says, the recognition of Palestinian statehood, in the past week, by the UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta and Andorra is an important moment, setting up increased moral pressure on Israel and its (diminishing list of) allies.

Nils Mallock of King’s College London has been in the region recently, conducting fieldwork on the West Bank. He considers what an independent Palestinian state might look like.

Mallock and his fellow researchers have mapped the growth of settlements on the West Bank since 2014 and found they have grown by an average of 72%. Not only that, but their number has greatly increased, despite the fact that under the Oslo accords signed by Yitshak Rabin and Yasser Arafat in 1993, these settlements are illegal.

Malloch observes that the West Bank already “resembles a fragmented archipelago more than a cohesive state territory”. Add to this the massive development project which stretches pretty much from East Jerusalem across the width of the Palestinian enclave and an independent state based on the territory becomes difficult to imagine.

As for governance, Malloch believes that the Palestian people’s options are unenviable. An ageing and corrupt Palestinian authority on the one hand and what remains of Hamas on the other. “Whoever eventually leads a unified Palestine will inherit decades of failed self-governance, deep public scepticism, and Israel undoubtedly attempting to intervene in this process,” he concludes.

Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

– ref. Donald Trump hints at leaving Europe to defend Ukraine alone – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-hints-at-leaving-europe-to-defend-ukraine-alone-266098

September 25, 2025

Twilight at 20: the theology of Stephenie Meyer’s vampire trilogy

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Madeleine J. Meyer, Postgraduate Researcher, Theology and the Arts, University of St Andrews

The vampires of Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight saga are undoubtedly unique. Never before had vampires been described as having sparkling, diamond-like skin in the sunlight, for example. But Meyer’s Twilight novels, the first of which turns 20 this year, also drew on a long vampiric tradition, with spiritual themes that were just as relevant 200 years ago as they are now.

Vampires in the Victorian era stood as a symbol of their time. They represented the questions of a society faced with the tension between new scientific discoveries and the spiritualist movement – a desire to unite the material to the immaterial, the immanent to the transcendent.

Decades later, the Twilight saga sought to answer the same questions for its own generation of readers. Just before the book was published in 2005, the cultural historian Christopher Partridge noted the rise of alternative spirituality in the west and a return to thinking of our existence as both physical and spiritual. Though institutional religion may have lost its former foothold in society, many began identifying as spiritual but not religious.

Twilight reflects this paradigm shift that resists limiting our perception of reality to just what we see with our eyes or comprehend with our intellect. By introducing modernised vampires to Forks, a mundane Washington town, Meyer was participating in a widespread desire to find a spiritual reality in our day-to-day lives – or to re-enchant the world.

This article is part of a mini series marking 20 years since the publication of Stephenie Meyer’s first Twilight novel.

Many Victorian vampires – such as the unnamed female vampire in Le Fanu’s Spalatro (1843) and Robert Louis Stevenson’s Olalla (1885) – share certain qualities with Meyer’s sparkly vampires. They occasionally show mercy to humans, sacrifice relationships with their loved ones to keep them safe, and reflect on how they exist as spiritual creatures in a physical reality.

In this way Meyer’s vampires question what it means to be human from a theological perspective, just as Victorian vampire stories did. Meyer’s brilliance was to take an archaic mythos, introduced it to the 21st century, and find that it still stands. She exchanged the vampires’ creepy castles for a contemporary open-floor plan home, and audiences still flocked. Her vampires are ever ancient and ever new, participating in trying to answer age-old human questions.

Twilight follows the Victorian vampire tradition by exploring humanity through inhumanity. One of the most frequent themes in the saga is vampire Edward Cullen’s concern for his soul. He follows in the footsteps of his adopted father, fellow vampire Carlisle, by feasting on animals rather than humans because he doesn’t want to be a monster. The Cullens believe that by indulging in their thirst for human blood, vampires diminish their soulful existence.

‘This is the skin of a killer, Bella.’ Edward shows his sparkly skin in the film adaptation of Twilight.

This is as ancient a human concern as any. Are we more than just flesh and blood, possibly creatures with souls? And if we are, what does it mean to be human?

The protagonist of the Twilight saga, schoolgirl Bella Swan, is the primary point through which Meyer illustrates what it means to be human. Throughout the saga, Bella is torn between two worlds – human and inhuman. In Bella’s actions, the defining point for humanity is identified as selfless love. In each book, she makes the choice to put herself in danger for her loved ones’ sake. This is echoed in the Cullen coven’s desire to sacrifice their instincts by refusing to take innocent lives. In doing so, both Bella and Edward function humanely, even in their biological differences.

Myths survive because they cut to the heart of human existence. The vampire is immortal in literature across cultures because it says something that a systematic analysis of humanity or the world cannot.

What we receive in myth, as author C.S. Lewis noted, is not a statement on reality, but reality itself. When we hear a myth, we experience reality in a way that opens the spiritual senses, opening us up to experiencing the universal through a particular.

Twenty years on from Twilight’s original publication and 200 years since the Victorians drooled over their own sexy undead, we’re still talking about vampires. Meyer’s vampires endure because they tell us something of what it means to be human.

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Madeleine J. Meyer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Twilight at 20: the theology of Stephenie Meyer’s vampire trilogy – https://theconversation.com/twilight-at-20-the-theology-of-stephenie-meyers-vampire-trilogy-263590

September 25, 2025

Parental leave reform needs to consider small and medium businesses

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Norman, Associate Professor at Leeds University Business School, University of Leeds

The UK government announced a landmark review of parental leave in July 2025. This responds to widespread concern about failings within the current policy framework.

Much of the discussion centres on calls for longer, better-paid paternity leave. The statutory entitlement is just two weeks paid at a low flat rate (£187.18 per week in 2025) or 90% of average weekly earnings, whichever is lower.

Eligible fathers can opt for shared parental leave of up to 50 weeks of leave and up to 37 weeks of pay – paid at the same statutory rate. However, this is reliant on the mother giving up some of her maternity leave entitlement so is rarely taken up.

It is important for fathers to have the opportunity to take longer leave than the statutory two weeks. Evidence suggests that early paternal involvement in childcare lays the foundations for sustained, hands-on fathering.

However, it is unclear whether small- and medium-sized workplaces can adapt to even modest changes to the current parental leave system, particularly if there are enhancements to the length of paternity leave.

Challenges for small businesses

Discussions about parental leave reform and its implications often focus on large organisations. But small- and medium-sized enterprises – defined as having fewer than 250 employees – account for 60% of UK employment. They make up over 99% of all businesses.

We are carrying out research exploring the transition to parenthood in UK small- and medium-sized enterprises, in collaboration with two charities: Working Families and the Fatherhood Institute. This research includes a survey of 2,000 small- and medium-sized enterprises and 2,000 employees, as well as 160 interviews, which involved talking to the same employers and employees two or three times over two years.

The UK government acknowledges the current unruly state of leave and pay entitlements, which “were never designed to operate as a single system”.
In line with previous work carried out by one of us (Bianca Stumbitz), our preliminary findings suggest small and medium businesses experience distinct pressures. These are related to this complexity along with their small size and limited resources.

Pregnant woman in hijab at desk with laptop — Small and medium sized businesses are often committed to their employees’ transition to parenthood.
Pixel-Shot/Shutterstock

For example, some of these businesses have minimal knowledge of what the entitlements are. Some find the parental leave policies too complex. And some struggle to find appropriate and affordable cover for staff who take up leave.

Nevertheless, many small- and medium-sized enterprises are committed to supporting their employees in their parenting journeys. Even small workplaces sometimes manage to voluntarily enhance pay entitlements. In most cases, though, they cannot afford to do this and not at equivalent levels as some larger employers. However, they often try to be supportive in other ways. In particular, this may be through offering increased flexibility to allow parents to better reconcile work and care.

Policy reforms should account for the specific challenges that parental leave poses to smaller organisations. These include the management of staff absences if employees take extended periods of leave. The redistribution of work can overburden remaining staff, especially if roles are skilled or specialist.

Employers are generally supportive of extended leave for parents. But it is clear that it needs to be provided in a way that does not harm smaller workplaces with scarce resources.

Preliminary findings from our study suggest that the small employers’ relief scheme (which allows some small and medium enterprises to claim back 108.5% of parental leave pay instead of the usual 92%) is underused. This is mostly due to small business owners’ lack of awareness of the scheme. Take-up of the programme could be increased through targeted awareness-raising campaigns, raising the eligibility threshold and reduced administrative complexity.

Flexibility in when and how parental leave is taken can be helpful for both employers and employees in small- and medium-sized organisations. This would enable employees to take leave in blocks, rather than an extended period of time, which may be easier for some employers to manage.

It is crucial that the UK’s parental leave scheme is overhauled, including more targeted and better paid parental leave entitlements for fathers. However, if reform is to be truly inclusive, small- and medium-sized businesses must not be an afterthought. They must be at the heart of the conversation.

What needs to change?

Changes to paternity leave could have positive and significant implications for families, gender role equality, workplaces and economic wellbeing. Research and international evidence suggests that leave should be longer, well paid and offered to fathers on a “use it or lose it” basis.

For this to work for small and medium enterprises and their employees, the government needs to provide bespoke support and resources to help businesses manage and meet their responsibilities. This could include improved small employer relief entitlements to help to cover statutory pay for parental leave.

We are always looking to hear about workplace initiatives on parental leave – and are producing a toolkit to help employers and employees in small- and medium-enterprises navigate some of these challenges.

Helen Norman receives funding from the Economic Social Research Council (ESRC).

Bianca Stumbitz receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

Emma Banister receives funding from the Economic Social Research Council (ESRC).

– ref. Parental leave reform needs to consider small and medium businesses – https://theconversation.com/parental-leave-reform-needs-to-consider-small-and-medium-businesses-262366