For 80 years, the president’s party has almost always lost House seats in midterm elections, a pattern that makes the 2026 congressional outlook clear

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Robert A. Strong, Senior Fellow, Miller Center, University of Virginia

Who will be in the majority in Congress after the midterm elections? Douglas Rissing/iStock/Getty Images Plus

Now that the 2026 midterm elections are less than a year away, public interest in where things stand is on the rise. Of course, in a democracy no one knows the outcome of an election before it takes place, despite what the pollsters may predict.

Nevertheless, it is common for commentators and citizens to revisit old elections to learn what might be coming in the ones that lie ahead.

The historical lessons from modern midterm congressional elections are not favorable for Republicans today.

Most of the students I taught in American government classes for over 40 years knew that the party in control of the White House was likely to encounter setbacks in midterms. They usually did not know just how settled and solid that pattern was.

Since 1946, there have been 20 midterm elections. In 18 of them, the president’s party lost seats in the House of Representatives. That’s 90% of the midterm elections in the past 80 years.

Measured against that pattern, the odds that the Republicans will hold their slim House majority in 2026 are small. Another factor makes them smaller. When the sitting president is “underwater” – below 50% – in job approval polls, the likelihood of a bad midterm election result becomes a certainty. All the presidents since Harry S. Truman whose job approval was below 50% in the month before a midterm election lost seats in the House. All of them.

Even popular presidents – Dwight D. Eisenhower, in both of his terms; John F. Kennedy; Richard Nixon; Gerald Ford; Ronald Reagan in 1986; and George H. W. Bush – lost seats in midterm elections.

The list of unpopular presidents who lost House seats is even longer – Truman in 1946 and 1950, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1966, Jimmy Carter in 1978, Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in both 2010 and 2014, Donald Trump in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2022.

Exceptions are rare

There are only two cases in the past 80 years where the party of a sitting president won midterm seats in the House. Both involved special circumstances.

In 1998, Clinton was in the sixth year of his presidency and had good numbers for economic growth, declining interest rates and low unemployment. His average approval rating, according to Gallup, in his second term was 60.6%, the highest average achieved by any second-term president from Truman to Biden.

Moreover, the 1998 midterm elections took place in the midst of Clinton’s impeachment, when most Americans were simultaneously critical of the president’s personal behavior and convinced that that behavior did not merit removal from office. Good economic metrics and widespread concern that Republican impeachers were going too far led to modest gains for the Democrats in the 1998 midterm elections. The Democrats picked up five House seats.

The other exception to the rule of thumb that presidents suffer midterm losses was George W. Bush in 2002. Bush, narrowly elected in 2000, had a dramatic rise in popularity after the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The nation rallied around the flag and the president, and Republicans won eight House seats in the 2002 midterm elections.

Those were the rare cases when a popular sitting president got positive House results in a midterm election. And the positive results were small.

An electronic vote tally with a close vote of 217 to 214 to pass a bill.
The final – and close – tally of the House of Representatives’ vote on President Donald Trump’s tax bill on July 3, 2025.
Alex Wroblewski / AFP via Getty Images

Midterms matter

In the 20 midterm elections between 1946 and 2022, small changes in the House – a shift of less than 10 seats – occurred six times. Modest changes – between 11 and 39 seats – took place seven times. Big changes, so-called “wave elections” involving more than 40 seats, have happened seven times.

In every midterm election since 1946, at least five seats flipped from one party to the other. If the net result of the midterm elections in 2026 moved five seats from Republicans to Democrats, that would be enough to make Democrats the majority in the House.

In an era of close elections and narrow margins on Capitol Hill, midterms make a difference. The past five presidents – Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden – entered office with their party in control of both houses of Congress. All five lost their party majority in the House or the Senate in their first two years in office.

Will that happen again in 2026?

The obvious prediction would be yes. But nothing in politics is set in stone. Between now and November 2026, redistricting will move the boundaries of a yet-to-be-determined number of congressional districts. That could make it harder to predict the likely results in 2026.

Unexpected events, or good performance in office, could move Trump’s job approval numbers above 50%. Republicans would still be likely to lose House seats in the 2026 midterms, but a popular president would raise the chances that they could hold their narrow majority.

And there are other possibilities. Perhaps 2026 will involve issues like those in recent presidential elections.

Close results could be followed by raucous recounts and court controversies of the kind that made Florida the focal point in the 2000 presidential election. Prominent public challenges to voting tallies and procedures, like those that followed Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of victory in 2020, would make matters worse.

The forthcoming midterms may not be like anything seen in recent congressional election cycles.

Democracy is never easy, and elections matter more than ever. Examining long-established patterns in midterm party performance makes citizens clear-eyed about what is likely to happen in the 2026 congressional elections. Thinking ahead about unusual challenges that might arise in close and consequential contests makes everyone better prepared for the hard work of maintaining a healthy democratic republic.

The Conversation

Robert A. Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. For 80 years, the president’s party has almost always lost House seats in midterm elections, a pattern that makes the 2026 congressional outlook clear – https://theconversation.com/for-80-years-the-presidents-party-has-almost-always-lost-house-seats-in-midterm-elections-a-pattern-that-makes-the-2026-congressional-outlook-clear-271605

Nigeria’s former election umpire has been appointed an ambassador: why this is a red flag

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Onyedikachi Madueke, Teaching Assistant, University of Aberdeen

The Nigerian Senate confirmed the appointment of the immediate past chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as an ambassador in December 2025. This has resurfaced concerns about electoral integrity in the country.

Mahmood Yakubu stepped down as head of the electoral commission just three months prior to the ambassadorial appointment.

As a political scientist with published research on the electoral commission and electoral integrity in Nigeria, I argue that even though the president has a right to make the appointment under Section 171 of the constitution, it is still troubling. There are a number of reasons.

Firstly, it raises questions about institutional neutrality and public trust. It looks like a reward for the way elections were administered.

Yakubu’s tenure as chairman included the controversial 2023 general elections. Questions were raised about the commission’s credibility following logistical failures, technological breakdowns and delayed transmission of results. Though the courts ultimately upheld the declared outcomes, the election’s legitimacy remains hotly debated among citizens, civil society and scholars.

The same electoral umpire has been appointed to a prestigious diplomatic role less than three years after conducting an election that returned the appointing authority to power.

Secondly, it undermines public confidence at a time of rising political disengagement. Nigeria’s democracy is facing a legitimacy challenge driven by civic disillusionment, youth disengagement, and declining trust in institutions. Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election, roughly 26% of registered voters, was one of the lowest in the country’s democratic history.

Thirdly, it reflects a weakening of institutional checks and legislative oversight. Despite widespread objections, the Senate approved the nomination with minimal dissent. A weak or compliant legislature reduces the institutional safeguards that protect elections from political capture.

Nigeria must strengthen electoral governance. This should include cooling off periods for electoral commission officials, stronger Senate oversight, protected institutional autonomy, and sustained civic re-engagement.

Impartiality and the perception of political reward

Electoral commissions thrive on perceived impartiality as much as on legal independence.

In a region where democratic norms are weakening as seen in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea and others, the perception that electoral officials may receive political rewards, especially if they manipulate the electoral institution to favour a candidate, can further erode trust. It sends a signal, intended or not, that electoral umpires can swiftly take on political roles.

This may influence future behaviour within the electoral commission. It becomes harder to preserve the principle of neutrality.

Ebbing trust in elections

Many Nigerians already believe that the electoral umpire is compromised. A 2023 report revealed that some senior electoral officials were politically affiliated with the ruling party.

A 2023 Afrobarometer report showed that 76% of Nigerians expressed a lack of trust in the commission.

In a recent paper, my colleague and I identified constraints on the commission. These included corruption, lack of adherence to its rules, and lack of independence.

Yakubu’s appointment risks deepening cynicism and feeding narratives of elite collusion.

For a democracy already struggling with fractured trust, where young people question whether voting makes a difference, this symbolic gesture may accelerate disengagement. When citizens lose faith in elections, they may turn to protest or apathy. Worse, they might support anti-democratic alternatives such as military intervention. It’s a trend already visible in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger.

Weakening checks and balances

The Senate’s role in the affair raises equally troubling concerns.

Rather than exercising its constitutional role as a check on executive appointments, the Senate appeared to align seamlessly with the president’s preferences. Most of the nominees were only asked by the Senate to bow and go.

This pattern of legislative passivity, common in Nigeria across all tiers of government, mirrors broader regional trends. Parliaments, whether in Togo, Benin or Senegal, have gradually ceded oversight functions to executives.

When political institutions become less independent, electoral oversight becomes more fragile.

A weak or compliant legislature reduces the institutional safeguards that protect elections from political capture.

The confirmation thus symbolises a gradual erosion of institutional balance. It’s a worrying sign in a region where democratic backsliding is accelerating.

What should be done

Reforms are essential.

In the US and Australia, revolving door laws exist to prevent former senior officials who occupied critical positions of trust from using their positions for political gains. They typically observe a cooling-off period before moving into a role that may risk a conflict of interest.

This norm exists to insulate institutional decisions from the prospect of political favour.

Nigeria currently lacks such a safeguard. Introducing a four- to six-year interval before former electoral commission chairs and commissioners could accept political or diplomatic appointments would bring Nigeria in line with international best practice.

Secondly, politically affiliated individuals must not be appointed to any position in the commission. This reform would protect both the individuals and the institution from allegations of political alignment.

Third, the Senate must reassert its constitutional role. It must subject sensitive appointments to genuine debate, ethical screening, and public interest review.

A credible, independent review, focusing on election logistics, technological failures, communication lapses and institutional pressures, would demonstrate a commitment to learning from past shortcomings. Transparency is the antidote to suspicion.

Preserving electoral integrity requires not only laws but also norms, perceptions and trust.

Across west African states, contested electoral processes and the fear that election administrators may align with political incumbents are increasingly widespread.

Nigeria, often viewed as a democratic anchor, cannot afford to reinforce this troubling pattern.

The Conversation

Onyedikachi Madueke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Nigeria’s former election umpire has been appointed an ambassador: why this is a red flag – https://theconversation.com/nigerias-former-election-umpire-has-been-appointed-an-ambassador-why-this-is-a-red-flag-273529

Ethiopian women and safety: why some switch their ethnic identity when they start working

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Monica Beeder, Lecturer, University of Southampton

For women entering the formal labour market in Ethiopia, taking a job can expose them to new public spaces and risks. Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

For many women in Ethiopia, getting their first formal job doesn’t just change their income; it can change how they describe who they are in everyday public interactions.

In a country where ethnicity shapes access to opportunities, safety and political rights, this shift is far from small.

That is the provocative finding of our recent study: formal employment can cause women to switch their self-reported ethnicity. We are a team of political scientists and development economists who study labour markets, gender and ethnic identity in Ethiopia. We studied this issue in a recent research project.

We used data from a unique field experiment with 27 firms across five Ethiopian regions, where job offers were randomised among qualified female applicants. This means the firms had more qualified applicants than positions, so eligible women were selected through a lottery system for job offers. We then tracked both women who received a job offer and those who didn’t over multiple survey rounds spanning roughly three years, collecting information on their employment status, earnings, working conditions, daily mobility and commuting patterns, household characteristics, and how they reported their ethnic identity.

What we found was striking. In our full sample of 891 women, around 8% changed their stated ethnicity at some point over the time we followed them. While this may sound like a small share, switching ethnic identity is rare and socially consequential, making this level of change substantial in context.

Women who received a job offer were 4.3 percentage points more likely to switch their stated ethnicity than those who did not. In the comparison group – women who were not offered a job – about 6% changed their stated ethnicity over time. Among women offered a job, this figure rose to around 10%. When we account for who actually took up the job, the effect is even larger.

To some readers, this may sound like a technical result. But in a country where ethnicity shapes politics, social opportunity and daily survival, it is explosive.

Changing one’s ethnic label is not a trivial act. It carries implications for family, community and belonging.

So, why would a job make someone change something so fundamental?

For women entering the formal labour market in Ethiopia, even at low wages, taking a job can reshape their daily routines and expose them to new public spaces and risks. These shifts in mobility and visibility create pressures that women who stay at home may never face.

As they navigate these new environments, some find themselves adjusting not just their schedules, but also how they present and even report their ethnic identity.

By showing that formal employment can lead to ethnic reidentification, our study reveals identity as a living, shifting facet of social life rather than a fixed badge.

As Ethiopia and other African countries pursue industrialisation, labour-market expansion and social mobility, we must pay attention: economic transformation may come with unexpected, and deeply personal, consequences.

Being vulnerable

Our in-depth interviews with women in the two cities with the highest switching in our sample – Dire Dawa in east-central Ethiopia and Hawassa in the southern region – reveal a striking mechanism.

Employment meant commuting through areas where ethnic and, in some cases, ethno-religious tensions were high.

Women told us they felt far more vulnerable on the road than at home, especially if their own ethnicity placed them on the “wrong” side of a local conflict.

As one respondent explained, the decision to switch was driven by practical concerns about personal safety rather than a deeper change in how they saw themselves.

Some women did not adopt the local majority’s identity but switched to a third, more neutral group, one not involved in conflict.

Whether this was possible depended on their appearance, religion and language skills. As several women explained, speaking the correct language allowed them to “pass”, meaning they were perceived as belonging to a safer group while out in public. We cannot say how common this strategy was across all women in our study, but the interviews confirm patterns we also observe in our quantitative data of women switching to a third, neutral ethnicity to navigate local conflicts.

This makes sense in a country experiencing repeated waves of violence. In 2022, more than 40% of all conflict-related deaths worldwide occurred in Ethiopia.

In this kind of context, identity is not static; it becomes a resource.

Our findings challenge common assumptions across economics, the social sciences, and policy. While scholars have long recognised that ethnic identity can be fluid, it is often still treated as something relatively stable in practice, rooted in ancestry or birth.

What our evidence shows is the strategic side of this fluidity. Ethnicity can be consciously adjusted in response to economic conditions, mobility and the risks women face in public spaces.

In other words, identity is not only socially constructed. It can also shift in response to the pressures and incentives created by the work environment.

The protections needed

This raises uncomfortable questions about the global garment industry, which has progressively shifted production from Europe to Asia and is now beginning to extend manufacturing activities to parts of Africa as global value chains are reconfigured in search of lower production costs. Ethiopia has encouraged this growth by developing large industrial parks.

But unlike in long-established manufacturing hubs, there are few safety nets, transport protections or policies designed around local ethnic dynamics.

When women must alter their identity to feel safe on the commute to a low-wage job, something is clearly missing.

Our findings show that when these global industries arrive without adapting to local realities, the burden falls disproportionately on women.

It is not a sign of progress when a woman has to change her identity, even temporarily, to commute safely to a low-paid job. If anything, it calls for a more honest debate about what industrialisation should look like, and what protections are needed for the workers it relies on.

This also raises more profound questions about belonging and dignity. Is changing your ethnic identity an act of personal agency – or a sign of social pressure and insecurity? What does it say about everyday life when your safety depends on how you present yourself while travelling to work?

Imagine having to change the language you speak on the bus – or even the surname you give when introducing yourself – just to avoid trouble on your way to work.

While not all women faced situations this extreme, the very possibility of needing such strategies illustrates the pressures created by moving through tense public spaces.

The Conversation

The research team received funding from the Norwegian Research Council to collect data for this study.

ref. Ethiopian women and safety: why some switch their ethnic identity when they start working – https://theconversation.com/ethiopian-women-and-safety-why-some-switch-their-ethnic-identity-when-they-start-working-271325

Getting into university is only the first hurdle for students from rural South Africa. Here’s what comes next

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Hellen Agumba, Senior lecturer, University of Johannesburg

As universities in South Africa prepare to admit a new group of students, thousands of young people from rural parts of the country hope for a life-changing opportunity.

In 2023, public universities enrolled 258,778 first-time students. Demand is intense; for example, the University of Johannesburg received 358,992 applications for just 10,500 first-year spaces in 2025.

A substantial proportion of these new students come from economically disadvantaged backgrounds. The National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS) is often the only key to unlocking post-school education. The scheme supports students from families earning less than R350,000 a year (about US$21,000) and has a target of 850,000 students. It is supposed to cover fees, accommodation, a living allowance, transport and learning materials.

Yet for many rural students, this key fails to turn the lock.

The number of students from rural areas who secure university placements cannot be determined. Neither the Council on Higher Education nor the Department of Higher Education systematically tracks students’ geographic origins. But what research does show is that students from rural areas face challenges beyond financial constraints.




Read more:
How place of birth shapes chances of going to university: evidence from 7 African countries


My research on higher education access and learning experiences, particularly among marginalised students, has explored the reasons and consequences.

The conversation around financial aid rightly focuses on administrative crises: devastating payment delays and operational failures that erode trust. These are human catastrophes. But I’ve found that for rural students, these problems are only the tip of the iceberg. Beneath lies a deeper web of challenges.

Financial aid is crucial but it cannot compensate for systemic disadvantages that begin long before students reach campus and persist throughout their studies.

My research, involving in-depth interviews with rural students, shows the “hidden costs” they bear. Their struggle begins with limited access to information. This constrains their educational choices. Then they may not feel really comfortable to participate in the classroom and make social connections. And their financial situation influences both academic performance and social belonging.

Even when rural students graduate, many describe feeling they have survived higher education rather than thrived in it.

The experiences they shared with me reveal how these challenges interconnect throughout their university journey. Their stories also point to ways of improving rural students’ participation in higher education.

Listening to rural students

My qualitative study consisted of in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with 18 rural students (10 of them female), aged 19-25 at a university in Johannesburg. All participants came from former homeland areas across four provinces – the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Mpumalanga – a pattern reflecting apartheid’s enduring geographic legacy. They were studying fields ranging from education to engineering; 13 of the 18 were first-generation university students, and all were Black African. Their demographic profile was typical of deeply rural students accessing higher education through programmes like NSFAS.

The deliberate selection criteria and consistency of their experiences reveals systemic patterns.

One of the participants, Philip (all names have been changed) from Limpopo, described the sheer physical distance of his home from university:

I pass Polokwane (a city 320km from Johannesburg) and go deep to the rural villages until Giyani (a small town over 150km further on) … then from Giyani I have to catch a taxi to my village … you are far away from universities.

While urban students attend open days to learn about the courses on offer and careers, those in remote villages are left in the dark. As one participant, Terry, observed:

During open day for UJ (University of Johannesburg) … it’s mostly model C schools.“ (These are better resourced high schools which were reserved for white learners during apartheid.) I have never seen someone (there) from rural background.

This isolation limits career awareness to visible rural professions like teaching and nursing.

Sef’s story is telling:

I didn’t know anything about the courses offered … I only know teaching and these professions that you see in the village.

After a costly false start, she found her path to engineering only through a chance family conversation.

In South Africa, many students scrape together a registration fee, gambling that full funding will materialise. And without guidance on accommodation deadlines, they might arrive in the city to find university residences full and be forced into expensive or unsafe private housing.

Jane explained:

We will come and look for accommodation in February … When we get there, we find that the residence is already full.

While universities technically provide accommodation information, it is often buried in lengthy online registration documents that assume students have reliable internet access and familiarity with university processes.




Read more:
South African students still don’t feel safe on campus: how protection can be stepped up


The result is a financial strain from day one. For students like Kate, who was mugged commuting from distant, off-campus housing, the consequences are academic and psychological:

At the end of the year, I didn’t pass that well and as a result I lost my sponsor.

Upon arrival, they face a second battle: cultural and geographic alienation. They enter a space privileging urban, middle-class norms. Participants spoke of being teased for their accents and dress.




Read more:
How class and social capital affect university students


As Ann from the Eastern Cape put it:

Nobody cares … you get to know people from other tribes, people from other races … some of things they do you don’t understand.

Language becomes a profound barrier to participation. Philip shared:

I would want to participate … but eish! English … I’m not confident enough.

The curriculum itself can feel alienating, with examples drawn from unfamiliar urban contexts. Terry, an engineering student, noted:

Sometimes they teach about some events you have never heard of … that’s where they kill us.




Read more:
Universities need to take note of the gap between expectations and experience


It takes more than cash

This brings us back to NSFAS. Its administrative failures hit rural students hardest.

For a student who barely registered, a delayed allowance is a crisis. It means missing lectures, relying on food parcels, and impossible choices between education and supporting families.




Read more:
South Africa’s university students face a crisis: nearly a third go hungry


Ann described the strain:

Since January we’re still waiting … Sometimes I don’t have money to come to school. I have to miss lectures.

The funding, when it comes, doesn’t cover the true cost. It ignores higher travel costs, expensive data to compensate for remoteness, and the burden of unexpected private accommodation.




Read more:
Distance learning changes lives, but comes with its own challenges


The higher education system has focused too long on the narrow goal of access: getting students through the gate. True equity is about ensuring they can thrive as peers inside. The current student financing model is a blunt remedy: it provides cash but leaves the underlying structures of exclusion untouched.

How to change it

My research suggests some steps that could help rural students.

Fix the fundamentals with rural students in mind: Students need a competent, reliable financial aid scheme. Payment timelines must be guaranteed, with emergency support for rural students during delays.




Read more:
South Africa’s student debt trap: two options that could help resolve the problem


Early outreach: Universities and government must take information to deep rural areas through mobile career services and application support long before final high school exams that determine university entrance.

Fund the full experience: Bursary calculations must be nuanced to cover the real, higher costs borne by rural students, including travel, data and safe accommodation.

Create culturally inclusive campuses: Universities must actively combat assumptions that rural students are “underprepared” or “lacking” essential skills. They can do this through staff training, peer mentorship, and curricula that value different kinds of knowledge.




Read more:
We asked university students to tell their own stories in photos: here’s why


The dreams of rural students are stifled by a system blind to their reality. Ensuring timely funding is the bare minimum. They need a system that doesn’t just let them in but truly welcomes them and sets them up for success.

The Conversation

Hellen Agumba received funding from the National Research Fund (NRF). The grant was awarded for her PhD Studies.

ref. Getting into university is only the first hurdle for students from rural South Africa. Here’s what comes next – https://theconversation.com/getting-into-university-is-only-the-first-hurdle-for-students-from-rural-south-africa-heres-what-comes-next-271532

‘We got lazy and complacent’: Swedish pensioners explain how abolishing the wealth tax changed their country

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Miranda Sheild Johansson, Senior Research Fellow in Social Anthropology, UCL

‘A country of rich people’: a superyacht with helicopter on board heads into Stockholm’s harbour. M-Production/Shutterstock

For much of the 20th century, Sweden enjoyed a justifiable reputation as one of Europe’s most egalitarian countries. Yet over the past two decades, it has transformed into what journalist and author Andreas Cervenka calls a “paradise for the super-rich”.

Today, Sweden has one of the world’s highest ratios of dollar billionaires, and is home to numerous “unicorn” startup companies worth at least US$1 billion (£742 million), including the payment platform Klarna and audio streaming service Spotify.

The abolition of the wealth tax (förmögenhetsskatten) 20 years ago is part of this story – along with, in the same year, the introduction of generous tax deductions for housework and home improvement projects. Two decades on, the number of Swedish homes that employ cleaners is one marker of it being an increasingly two-tier country.

As part of my anthropological research into the social relationships that different tax systems produce, I have been working with pensioners in the southern suburbs of Sweden’s capital, Stockholm, to learn how they feel about the decreasing levels of taxation in their later lives.

This trend has been coupled with a gradual shrinking of the welfare state. Many of my interviewees regret that Sweden no longer has a collective project to build a more cohesive society.

“Us pensioners can see the destruction of what we built, what was started when we were small children,” Kjerstin, 74, explained. “I was born after the end of the war and built this society through my life, together with my fellow citizens. [But] with taxes being lowered and the taking away of our social security … we’re not building anything together now.”

Sweden’s gini coefficient, the most common way to measure inequality, has reached 0.3 in recent years (with 0 reflecting total equality and 1 total inequality), up from around 0.2 in the 1980s. The EU as a whole is at 0.29. “There are now 42 billionaires in Sweden – it’s gone up a lot,” Bengt, 70, told me. “Where did they come from? This didn’t used to be a country where people could easily become this rich.”

But like other pensioners I met, Bengt acknowledged his peer group’s role in this shift. “I belong to a generation that remembers how we built Sweden to become a welfare state, but so much has changed. The thing is, we didn’t protest this. We didn’t realise we were becoming this country of rich people.”

Opposite of the American dream

Wealth taxation was introduced in Sweden in 1911, with the amount due based initially on a combination of wealth and income. Around the same time, some of the first moves towards the Swedish welfare state were made – notably, the introduction of the state pension in 1913.

The term used to describe this, folkemmet (“the people’s home”), denoted comfort and security for all in equal measure. It was arguably the ideological opposite of the American dream – its aims not exceptionalism but reasonable living standards and universal services.

After the second world war, the wealth tax – now separated from income – was raised again in several steps up to a historical high of a 4% marginal rate for wealthy individuals in the 1980s, although actual tax burden is is less clear due to complex exemption rules. But total revenues generated from the tax were still relatively low. As a share of Sweden’s annual GDP, it never exceeded 0.4% in the postwar period.

By the end of the 1980s, the political winds were starting to change in Sweden, in line with the shift to privatisation of public services and deregulation of financial markets in several European countries, including the UK under Margaret Thatcher, and the US.

One recurrent criticism of Sweden’s wealth tax was that it was regressive, taxing middle-class wealth (mainly housing and financial assets) while exempting the wealthiest people who owned large firms or held high-up positions in listed companies. Another criticism was that the wealth tax drove tax avoidance, especially in the form of capital flight to offshore tax havens.

While a wealth tax might appear to signal their country’s commitment to socioeconomic equality, my interviewees said it wasn’t something they really thought about much until it was abolished in 2006 by Sweden’s then-rightwing government, following the axing of inheritance tax a year earlier by the previous social democratic government.

“When the wealth tax was abolished,” Marianne, 77, told me, “I wasn’t thinking about millionaires being given a handout, because … we didn’t have lots of rich aristocrats who owned everything. Abolishing the wealth and inheritance tax seemed like a practical thing, not so political.”

Marianne and other pensioners I talked to all told a story of the welfare state having been built through communal effort, as opposed to it being a Robin Hood project – of taking from the rich to give to the poor. This notion of the Swedish welfare state as having been built by equals, by an initial largely rural and poor population, arguably distracted these pensioners from questions of wealth accumulation.

While Sweden still taxes property and various forms of capital income, in hindsight, many of my elderly interviewees now regard the abolition of the wealth tax “on their watch” as a crucial step in reshaping Swedish society away from a social democracy welfare state towards something new – a place of billionaires and increased social disintegration.

“I think about my children, my two daughters who are working and have young families,” Jan, 72, told me. “As children, they were provided for by the welfare state, they went to good schools and had access to football and drama class and the dentist – but now I worry that society is going to get worse for them.”

As with others I spoke to, Jan showed regret at his own role in this change. “I now think that is partly my fault,” he said. “We got lazy and complacent, thought the Swedish welfare state was secure, didn’t worry about abolishing the wealth tax, didn’t think it was going to change anything … but I think it has.”

‘A society that is more humane’

My research suggests the impacts of wealth taxes, or absence of them, are not only about fiscal revenue streams and wealth redistribution. They have wider social ramifications, and can be foundational to people’s vision of society.

Only three European countries currently levy a whole wealth tax: Norway, Spain and Switzerland. In addition, France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands impose wealth taxes on selected assets, but not on an person’s overall wealth.

In Sweden at least, the question today isn’t just whether wealth taxes work or not, but about what kind of society they project – one of folkhemmet, or a paradise for the rich.

“Tax was just natural [when] I grew up in the 1950s,” Kjerstin recalled. “I remember thinking when I was in second grade, that I will always be taken care of, that I didn’t ever have to worry.”

Reflecting on how different living in Sweden feels today, she said: “Now people don’t want to pay tax – sometimes even I don’t want to pay tax. Everyone is thinking about what they get back and how to get rich, instead of about building something together.”

“I don’t think you can say: ‘I pay this much in taxes and therefore I should get the same back.’ Instead, you should pay attention to the fact that you live in a society that is more humane, where everyone knows from second grade they’ll be taken care of.”

Names of research participants have been changed.

The Conversation

Miranda Sheild Johansson receives funding from UK Research And Innovation.

ref. ‘We got lazy and complacent’: Swedish pensioners explain how abolishing the wealth tax changed their country – https://theconversation.com/we-got-lazy-and-complacent-swedish-pensioners-explain-how-abolishing-the-wealth-tax-changed-their-country-272041

Why we love literary anniversaries

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amy Wilcockson, Research Fellow, English Literature, Queen Mary University of London

Last year marked 250 years since the birth of the English novelist Jane Austen. The Conversation celebrated this important literary milestone with a series of articles and a dedicated podcast, Jane Austen’s Paper Trail. This special year saw a variety of high-profile celebratory events across the country, from regency balls and film screenings, to special tours and literary talks.

But literary anniversaries are not just limited to famous and well-loved authors, however significant. Many dates pass us by unmarked, despite the fact that we are in the midst of a golden era of key dates of literary significance.

The 2020s has been a decade of major Romantic-period milestones, including the bicentenaries of the deaths of the poets John Keats (2021), Percy Bysshe Shelley (2022), and Byron (2024). Last year’s Austen anniversary was particularly notable because the writer was so widely and enthusiastically celebrated.

Yet it also was the centenary year of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s jazz-age classic The Great Gatsby, alongside Virginia Woolf’s modernist favourite Mrs Dalloway. Brideshead Revisited by Evelyn Waugh, George Orwell’s Animal Farm and Nancy Mitford’s The Pursuit of Love all turned 80, while children’s classic The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe by C.S. Lewis celebrated its 75th birthday.

Celebrating in 2026

In 2026 there is another slew of big anniversaries, marking the tercentenary of Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels, and 200 years since the ever-relevant Mary Shelley’s The Last Man (her 1826 novel about the near extinction of humanity after a global plague) was first released.

A.A. Milne’s Winnie-the-Pooh first indulged in his favourite “hunny” in 1926, and it was the start of Agatha Christie’s reign as queen of crime, as the immensely popular The Murder of Roger Ackroyd captured the public imagination.

Fifty years later her last novel, Sleeping Murder, was published posthumously, after her death on January 12 1976. Special re-issues of Christie’s books, new audiobook recordings, lectures, conferences, Netflix adaptations, and even a major British Library exhibition have been organised to celebrate some of these momentous literary milestones.

Anne Rice’s Interview with a Vampire, which reshaped the genre with a more complex, nuanced portrayal of the archetypal character, also celebrates 50 years since its 1976 publication.

But why do we celebrate literary anniversaries? Why do museums, academics and the public rush to commemorate our favourite authors? And why do some authors receive more celebration than others?

First, literary anniversaries are significant as they create a shared sense of heritage and a feeling of unity within communities and cultures. As Shakespeare scholars Monika Smialkowska and Edmund G.C. King observed when considering the Bard’s many anniversary celebrations: “Each event has also been an occasion for the community commemorating him to celebrate itself.”

In 2016, when British and global audiences commemorated the 400th anniversary of Shakespeare’s death, gala concerts, special coins and exhibitions were the tip of the iceberg. Shakespeare represents to many the pinnacle of British culture and many believe his plays are vital as they allow us to examine ourselves and our place in the world.

General historical events don’t seem to capture the public imagination in the same way. And of course, major authors like Shakespeare and Austen become universal. They are not just a symbol of British culture, their fame and embodiment of “Britishness” have gone global. Shakespeare has been recognised by and claimed as a part of American, European, African and wider global contexts.

For instance, the Jane Austen Society of Aotearoa New Zealand celebrated its tenth anniversary last year. Marking anniversaries allow us to build connections not just with the time period or world that the author has built, but with fellow enthusiasts through shared interests in particular genres, texts and authors. We celebrate not just the writers, but our own personal, national and global networks and cultures too.

Nostalgia and literary tourism

Literary anniversaries are also a prime example of nostalgia – of thinking that a place, event or period from the past is preferable to the present. Rituals such as anniversary celebrations are the physical embodiment of this feeling.

This is why enthusiasts dress up in the costumes of the Regency period or in military attire – to transport themselves back to a less complex time, perhaps. By reading an author’s books, visiting their house, and seeing the quills and pens with which they wrote, visitors are similarly invited to step back into the past and into the writer’s world.

It is no surprise then that literary museums put on huge events to mark particularly important author milestones. Literary tourism is growing, with Travel Weekly noting that Austen tourism in particular is – obviously – popular at the moment.

While final visitor figures have not yet been released, a spokesperson for the Jane Austen’s House museum stated that they expected to have surpassed their usual annual 40,000 visitors in 2025.

These anniversaries are of course a global draw, with entire marketing campaigns built around significant dates. For example, 2017 was not only coined by Visit Britain as a Year of Literary Heroes, but an interactive Magical Britain campaign and map were also launched to celebrate 20 years since the the first Harry Potter book.

Anniversaries of popular books and authors boost the local and national economy as visitors flood to visit locations from the author’s writings, as well as their birthplaces, homes and graves.

But why do some authors stick in the public imagination more than others? Author and academic H.J. Jackson notes in her book on Romantic reputations that recognition usually begins with a collected edition of the author’s work, before interest develops into biographies, translations and adaptations. The texts become taught in schools, societies are named in the author’s honour, and then finally anniversary celebrations commence to celebrate their great achievements.

According to Jackson, authors need to win over different audiences to be successful and gain worldwide renown. Given their solid and wide-reaching appeal, I have little doubt we will still be celebrating Keats, Austen, Orwell and Christie in a hundred years’ time.


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The Conversation

Amy Wilcockson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Why we love literary anniversaries – https://theconversation.com/why-we-love-literary-anniversaries-273375

Humans returned to British Isles earlier than previously thought at the end of the last ice age

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adrian Palmer, Senior Lecturer, Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London

The return of humans to the British Isles after the end of the last ice sheet, which covered much of the northern hemisphere, happened around 15,200 years ago – nearly 500 years earlier than previous estimates.

This movement of people coincided with a sharp rise in summer temperatures in southern Britain, research by our group shows.

These environmental conditions allowed humans to migrate back up into Britain – then still connected to the European mainland. They were hunting herds of reindeer and horses, which were migrating northwards into ecosystems that supported their preferred food for grazing.

After the end of the last ice age, the climate in north-west Europe shifted from cold to warm conditions on at least two occasions, with changes in temperature thought to have occurred over decades.

Our latest research addresses the first of these transitions in the Late Upper Palaeolithic period (14,000 to 11,000 years ago). In areas such as north-west Europe, including where the British Isles are today, humans successively abandoned and then returned to areas at the abrupt transitions between cold and warm periods.

Broadly, evidence of humans from fossil records showed them migrating to where the environmental conditions supported their survival.

Reasons for repopulation

The repopulation of the British Isles after the last ice age is an excellent period to explore the relationships between climate and environment, and the reappearance of humans in this region.

In previous studies, the evidence has been somewhat difficult to read due to uncertainty of the dating methods and incomplete records of environmental and climate conditions. The traditional view had been that the north-west European climate warmed from ice-age temperatures around 14,700 years ago, and humans reoccupied Britain at that time.

However, revised preparation techniques in the early 2000s for the dating of human remains and associated artefacts showed the earliest appearance of humans occurred prior to the warming of 14,700 years ago.

This finding was difficult to understand, as it coincided with what were then considered cold glacial climates that would have been unlikely to support the resources people needed to survive in Britain.

Summer climate record from Llangorse Lake, Wales

A graphic showing showing summer temperatures in the British Isles after the last Ice Age.
Graph shows the timing of returns to British Isles of reindeer and humans after the last ice age, and related temperatures in Llangrose Lake.
Author’s own illustration

Our study used new calibrations of radiocarbon ages that confirmed the age of those human remains to between 15,200 and 15,000 years ago. So, if humans really were present in the British Isles, could they have survived in cold climates – or was our picture of past environments at this time incorrect?

Clearer insight came from Llangorse Lake (Lake Syffadan) in south Wales, where the lake sediments spanning the last 19,000 years record the abrupt climate change in detail. In addition, the lake’s location lies close to the cave in the Wye Valley where the earliest British evidence for human remains after the ice age were found.

By extracting fossil pollen, chironomids (non-biting midges) and chemical analysis of the lake sediments, an unexpected picture of the climate emerged – one that showed previous climate reconstructions for the region were incorrect.

The chironomids were used to reconstruct summer temperature, and this showed the climate warmed in a different pattern than has been identified in other parts of north-west Europe and Greenland. An abrupt temperature shift from 5–7°C to 10–14°C occurred at 15,200 years in Britain – 500 years earlier than previous evidence had suggested.

Just prior to this climate warming, the presence of human prey, such as reindeer and horses, is more consistently detected in southern Britain around 15,500 years ago. These animals were exploiting the newly available grazing grounds, with people tracking the herds northwards and enduring the moderately warmer summer climatic conditions.

Examining archaeological records along with environmental and climatic archives allows more precise reconstructions of when humans were able to repopulate previously inhospitable regions. This is helped by re-evaluating old radiocarbon dates of human evidence in the landscape, and by generating more precise environmental records from the time – including more precise timings of the transitions from cold to warm periods.

This provided us with a fuller picture of human responses to changes in temperature (and their impact on the environment) in the Late Upper Palaeolithic period. Human survival was the driver of these movements, and following prey into new areas was important. But only a relatively small change in summer temperatures was required to enable this migration.

Our research provides better understanding of human behaviour and resilience to climate change after the last ice age around 15,000 years ago. But understanding these environmental triggers from the past helps create new perspectives on human responses to them even now.

These basic factors have not gone away. The response observed in this study might provide clues on future human behaviour as our polar regions warm and glaciers melt, showing how the potential for human migration could be increased.

The Conversation

Adrian Palmer receives funding from Natural Environment Research Council. He is affiliated with Royal Holloway, University of London and Quaternary Research Association.

ref. Humans returned to British Isles earlier than previously thought at the end of the last ice age – https://theconversation.com/humans-returned-to-british-isles-earlier-than-previously-thought-at-the-end-of-the-last-ice-age-271242

Can you really lose weight by cutting gluten from your diet, as Matt Damon claims?

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Guy Guppy, Lecturer in Performance Nutrition and Exercise Physiology, Kingston University

When Matt Damon recently credited his weight loss to going gluten-free, it reignited a familiar debate about this divisive dietary approach. But while The Odyssey star’s claims have sparked discussion, the science behind weight loss tells a far more nuanced story than simply cutting out a single protein.

Gluten is a naturally occurring protein found in grains such as wheat, barley and rye, which means it’s commonly consumed in everyday foods like bread, pasta and cereal. For most people, gluten doesn’t cause any health problems.

But for those with coeliac disease – which affects about 1% of people – avoiding it is essential. This autoimmune condition triggers an immune response to gluten, damaging the small intestine’s lining, impairing nutrient absorption.

Then there’s gluten intolerance, or non-coeliac gluten sensitivity, a condition associated with symptoms like bloating and reflux. People with this condition also commonly experience problems beyond the digestive system, including headaches and skin rashes.

Despite growing numbers of people reporting such symptoms, gluten intolerance remains hotly debated in terms of its causes and management. Currently, the only recommended approach is to adopt a gluten-free diet.

For everyone else – those without coeliac disease or gluten intolerance – avoiding gluten-rich foods may be unnecessary and potentially problematic.

Foods high in gluten, such as bread, pasta and cereal, don’t just provide carbohydrates, they’re also excellent sources of fibre and B vitamins.

Removing these foods may inadvertently contribute towards nutrient deficiencies. Yet the market for gluten-free products continues to surge, with projections suggesting it will reach US$13.7 billion (£10.2 billion) by 2030.

Given that Damon didn’t disclose any medical condition when discussing his weight loss goals, the likely explanation for his results lies in his overall diet and behaviour rather than gluten itself. Research published in Nutrients found no significant differences between gluten-free and gluten-rich diets in body fat or body weight among healthy adults.

Mechanics, not magic

The weight loss many people experience on gluten-free diets often comes down to mechanics rather than magic. Because gluten is in many energy-dense, carbohydrate-based foods, people eliminating it typically cut out items like pizza, fast food and pasta.

This carbohydrate restriction leads to a reduction in glycogen – the stored form of carbohydrate in the human body. When glycogen is stored, water is stored alongside it.

So when glycogen levels drop, water weight follows, creating the illusion of rapid fat loss. This phenomenon explains why people often see dramatic results in the first week or two of any new diet or exercise programme.

Beyond reduced carbohydrate intake, people following gluten-free diets often shift towards consuming more naturally gluten-free whole foods. This dietary restructuring often results in fewer calories being consumed overall.

A small preliminary study, published in Frontiers of Sports and Active Living, found that adhering to a gluten-free diet for six weeks led to significant reductions in body weight compared to a control diet. But these changes were probably the result of a calorie deficit and fluid loss, rather than any metabolic advantage from removing gluten.

There’s another factor at play. Wheat-based carbohydrates contain fermentable sugars called fructans, which are broken down by bacteria in the large intestine. This fermentation produces gas that can cause bloating, pain and changes in bowel movements. When these foods are removed, symptoms subside and the stomach can appear flatter – an aesthetic change that people may mistake for fat loss.

Gluten may have health benefits

Adopting a gluten-free diet that isn’t medically necessary could actually increase health risks. A large study published in the BMJ found an association between higher gluten intake and reduced heart disease risk.

Similarly, research has revealed a link between low gluten intake and increased type 2 diabetes risk.

The culprit behind these concerning links may well be the gluten-free products lining supermarket shelves. When gluten is removed from a product, it changes the texture and palatability of the food. To compensate, manufacturers add other ingredients to improve taste and consistency.

The result? Gluten-free products have been shown to contain significantly less protein, higher saturated fat, lower fibre and higher sugar than their conventional counterparts. Over time, this nutritional profile may lead to poor diets and hence poor health.

So while people may believe that going gluten-free causes weight loss, the reality is usually different. Subtle changes in diet structure and composition, alongside behavioural modifications, are typically the real reason.

The Conversation

Guy Guppy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Can you really lose weight by cutting gluten from your diet, as Matt Damon claims? – https://theconversation.com/can-you-really-lose-weight-by-cutting-gluten-from-your-diet-as-matt-damon-claims-273392

The Ukraine war has given rise to an ‘exorcism economy’ in Russia

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Santa Kravcenko, Lecturer in Management, University of Lancashire

“Please tell me where to go? A 14-year-old teenager has been possessed by a demon … we tried healers, but they couldn’t help … has anyone encountered this? Moscow region.” This is one of many similar pleas that have been circulating in Russia’s online communities in recent years.

According to reports in Russian media outlets such as Gazeta.ru, thousands of people in Russia are actively discussing exorcisms on social media. This is a spiritual ritual performed by a handful of Russian priests to expel spirits or demons from a person who is believed to be possessed.

Some people are travelling to well-known “exorcism destinations” such as Oryol Oblast about 400km south of Moscow. A priest there called Father Igor, the official exorcist of the local diocese, performs a ritual called otchitka. The ritual involves the priest reciting a set of prayers to help those deemed to be under the influence of spirits.

Other people are turning to the informal “exorcism economy”, which is offered by local mediums. Some have reported paying between 10,000 rubles (£98) and 20,000 rubles (£196) just for an initial consultation to determine whether they are truly possessed. Russia’s Orthodox Church warns that exorcism attempts should be left to members of the clergy.

An elderly woman prays in a Russian Orthodox church.
A woman prays in a Russian Orthodox church in Sochi, a city on Russia’s Black Sea coast, in May 2024.
fortton / Shutterstock

Exorcism is embedded in the Orthodox tradition, with exorcism prayers first brought into Russian religious practice in the 17th century by Archbishop Peter Mogila. However, exorcisms remained rare until the late Soviet period.

The most influential modern exorcist in Russia was Father German, a priest who began practising near Moscow in the 1980s. His reputation spread through word of mouth. Igumen Philaret, a man who knew Father German, described witnessing the following scene at one of his exorcisms:

One little boy was screaming terribly. He ripped away all his clothes and was rolling naked on the floor … ‘Mama, mama! Pull the tail out of my mouth!’ … Father sprinkled him with holy water … Then it became clear – as is often the cause of demonic possession in children – his mother had not repented of her abortions.

But what happened in the 1980s to spur the interest in exorcisms in Russia? According to some researchers, such as Pavel Nosachev of HSE University in Moscow, the emotional strain caused by the gradual collapse of the Soviet Union led people to “search for spirituality”.

As communist ideology waned, underground religious groups flourished and the Orthodox Church revived after decades of repression. Hypnotists and self-proclaimed psychic healers, such as Anatoly Kashpirovsky, also became prominent on television. A crisis in shared meaning produced a boom both in religious ritual and occult experimentation. This included exorcism.

Media reporting suggests that the business of “banishing demons” seen in present-day Russia is also reflective of a society under strain – but, in this case, one grappling with the effects of the war in Ukraine.

According to research on how humans cope with awareness of their death, religion works as a shield against existential anxieties. This can intensify during times of crisis, such as war. Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York, for example, church attendance increased worldwide and Bible sales soared.

The Russian Orthodox Church’s appointment of Vladimir Putin as “chief exorcist” in 2022 could also help explain why some Russians have been drawn into a fight with their inner demons. The Russian president’s appointment came after the Kremlin called for Ukraine to be “desatanised”.

‘Exorcism tourism’

The renewed interest in exorcism within Russia may represent a broader cultural response to political and personal instability – echoing the turbulence of the 1980s. But the country has also long nurtured an appetite for the paranormal.

Russian audiences have spent nearly two decades watching the popular television show, Battle of the Psychics. This show showcases the supposed paranormal abilities of self-proclaimed healers, witches and mediums in various competitive challenges. A recent episode even featured a live exorcism.

Just as Battle of Psychics spawned a multimillion-ruble industry of celebrity healers, Russia’s wartime exorcism surge reveals a similar monetisation of fear and uncertainty. What was once a localised ritual appears to be evolving into a structured commercial service – a phenomenon I call “exorcism tourism”.

As Nosachev observed in 2023: “Largely due to the connection with business – tours for otchitkas or donations for an exorcism session – this practice is now perceived as a commodity in a spiritual supermarket, which is characteristic of the consumer culture that has become a basis of the New Age.”

This commercialisation is visible in organised trips. Among the many adverts I have seen in recent years, a tour encouraging people “facing difficult life circumstances or physical and spiritual illnesses” to travel from Belarus to Russia “for exorcism” stands out.

The itinerary includes a consultation and private conversation with well-known “media exorcist” Father Gusev, as well as an application for an exorcism. Father Gusev fronts a rock band called “The Exorcist”, with the tour’s website claiming he has performed more than 15,000 exorcisms in 26 years.

In a country unsettled by war, uncertainty and spiritual volatility, Russia’s exorcism economy looks to be advancing. For some Russians, it seems that exorcisms offer not just a ritual but a sense of control amid everyday chaos.

The Conversation

Santa Kravcenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. The Ukraine war has given rise to an ‘exorcism economy’ in Russia – https://theconversation.com/the-ukraine-war-has-given-rise-to-an-exorcism-economy-in-russia-271037

La conversación docente: enseñar a estudiar eficazmente

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Eva Catalán, Editora de Educación, The Conversation

Kyryk Ivan/shutterstock, CC BY

Una de las frases más escuchadas en un aula podría ser: “¿Esto entra en el examen?”. La mayor preocupación de los estudiantes, desde el día “uno”, son las notas. Pero mientras los docentes y las clases se orientan a dar el contenido que “entra” en el examen, pocas veces se dedica tiempo a enseñar cómo aprenderlo.

Esto deja a muchos estudiantes perdidos, dedicando horas a tareas poco útiles o sencillamente contraproducentes. ¿Cuántas veces hemos sentido, o hemos oído aquello de “es que no me entra”? ¿Por qué a veces por más que lo intentemos no podemos aprendernos algo? La capacidad de concentración, por desgracia, no se enciende con un interruptor ni depende solo de la voluntad.

Noelia Valle, experta y divulgadora de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria, lo explica con el siguiente ejemplo: “Imagine intentar llenar una botella de agua con una manguera de bomberos a máxima potencia. La mayor parte del agua se derramaría y la botella seguiría medio vacía. Algo muy similar ocurre en nuestro cerebro cuando intentamos aprender por acumulación y por eso todos nos hemos descubierto alguna vez leyendo un texto una y otra vez sin ser capaz de retener nada.”

La frustración de hacer mal un examen, después de pasar muchas horas delante de unos apuntes o un libro, con la falsa impresión de haberlo “entendido” y aprendido todo, es una experiencia común a muchos estudiantes. Para enseñarles a estudiar, necesitamos entender cómo funciona el cerebro, cómo conseguimos acceder a contenido que hemos memorizado, de qué manera lograr que ese contenido no se olvide inmediatamente y esté accesible no sólo en el momento de “vomitarlo” en una hoja de examen, sino mucho después.

No se trata de pasar muchas horas delante de los apuntes. “El cerebro humano no aprende por acumulación, sino por integración”, nos explica esta investigadora y docente, en su interesantísimo artículo sobre la “carga cognitiva” y su papel en el funcionamiento de la memoria de trabajo, verdadera clave del éxito académico. Los docentes tienen un papel fundamental tanto en el material que presentan a sus alumnos como en la manera de ofrecérselo.

Otro fallo común es la “ilusión de conocimiento”: ese exceso de confianza que nos convence de que nos sabemos algo porque lo hemos escuchado en clase o lo hemos leído y lo hemos entendido. ¿A quién no le ha pasado alguna vez? ¿Y quién no ha escuchado a un docente desesperarse porque sus alumnos lo miran explicar pero no apuntan nada? “Total, está en los apuntes virtuales o en el libro”, ¿no?“ Pues no: tomar apuntes, especialmente a mano, es la base fundamental sobre la que construir ese estudio eficaz. No de cualquier forma, claro: la toma de apuntes también es una ciencia.

Otros factores influyen en la eficacia a la hora de estudiar: cuestiones fisiológicas (la disciplina, los descansos, la alimentación y el sueño) y emocionales: la sensación de autoeficiencia, la motivación, la perseverancia… Pero casi nada de esto se explica en clase. Dejamos que espontáneamente los estudiantes vayan descubriendo qué métodos les funcionan mejor, con el resultado que a menudo hasta en la educación superior muchos están todavía dedicando horas y horas a “hincar los codos” cuando podrían usar su cerebro de manera más eficiente.

The Conversation

ref. La conversación docente: enseñar a estudiar eficazmente – https://theconversation.com/la-conversacion-docente-ensenar-a-estudiar-eficazmente-273824