Category: English

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ruth Patrick, Professor in Social Policy, University of Glasgow

New government statistics released today show the reach of the two-child limit. There are 1,665,540 children in England, Scotland and Wales living in households affected by the two-child limit, an increase of over 35,000 from the same time in 2024.

The two-child limit restricts means-tested child benefits to the first two children in a household, subject to some exceptions.

Its sister policy, the benefit cap, affects over 115,000 households, including 300,000 children. It routinely pushes families into deep poverty, far below the standard poverty line of 60% of median income.

The benefit cap places a limit on the total amount a household can receive if no-one in the household earns a minimum amount, again subject to some exceptions linked to receipt of disability benefits.

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Over the past five years, we have been part of a team of academic researchers investigating the impact of both policies on families with three or more children. We’ve found that these policies drive up poverty, creating deprivation and hardship. This in turn causes sustained and severe harm to children and their families.

The two-child limit and benefit cap leave many families living with extreme financial insecurity. They harm parental mental health, as mothers and fathers struggle to try and make an inadequate income stretch to meet the needs of their children.

In addition, these policies do not fall evenly across the population when looking at ethnicity. Overall, 70% of the families affected by the two-child limit are white, as are 66% affected by the benefit cap. But our new analysis shows that children from an ethnic minority are up to three times as likely as white children to be affected by the two-child limit. They are also up to four times as likely to be affected by the benefit cap.

Alongside administrative statistics, we have analysed household survey data, published today as a policy brief. We find that one in five children from Pakistani families and one in four children from Bangladeshi families are now affected by the two-child limit.

Rising poverty

Our analysis also indicates that these policies are contributing to very high and rising levels of poverty. We estimate that 66% of Bangladeshi children, 60% of Pakistani children, and nearly half (48%) of black children live in poverty. This compares to one in four (24%) white children living below the poverty line – still far too many.

This new analysis provides us with better understanding of where the damage done by both policies is falling. It’s an important reminder of how the two-child limit and benefit cap directly conflict with ambitions not only to act on child poverty, but also to reduce systematic inequalities linked to ethnicity.

Scrapping the two-child limit would give larger families access to benefits they currently miss out on – but it would not have any effect on smaller families living in poverty, so isn’t the only policy solution needed.

Nonetheless, analysis by the Resolution Foundation has shown that getting rid of the two-child limit – which would cost £1.4 billion – is by far the most cost-effective way to reduce the number of children living in poverty. Spending £1.4 billion in other ways – for example by increasing benefits for all families – would make less difference to child poverty than if the two-child limit were ended.

It’s also important to keep in mind the impact on the depth of poverty. Larger families tend to be living further below the poverty line. Scrapping the two-child limit will make a big difference in many households, even if they are not lifted out of poverty as a result.

Labour came into government on a manifesto of “change”, and Keir Starmer has promised to be “laser-focused” in his commitment to drive down poverty.

Labour have already said that they want to get rid of the two-child limit, arguing that they just need to find the money to do so. The government has established a child poverty taskforce, due to report in the autumn, and made a first concrete policy commitment with the extension of free school meals provision for families in England. But there is no alternative to serious action on social security benefits if significant progress is to be made.

Ruth Patrick receives funding from a range of funders including Nuffield Foundation, AFFT, Trust for London, The Robertson Trust and the Centre for Impact on Urban Health. She is a member of The Labour Party.

Kitty Stewart has received funding from the Nuffield Foundation and from LSE for the research reported in this article.

– ref. Over 1.6 million children live in families made poorer by the two-child limit on benefits – new data – https://theconversation.com/over-1-6-million-children-live-in-families-made-poorer-by-the-two-child-limit-on-benefits-new-data-260449

Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Sweeney, Professor, Lancaster Law School, Lancaster University

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are refusing to implement a government plan to move hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into a what it calls a “humanitarian city” in Rafah on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt. Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, chief of the IDF general staff said the plan was not part of the military’s operational plan for destroying Hamas and freeing the remaining hostages.

Army reservists have reportedly also complained that the plan amounts to a war crime. In my view as an expert in international law, they are correct. Forcibly relocating a population is prohibited, even in war. It is also a crime against humanity and could even amount, under certain circumstances, to genocide.

There is some important historical context to consider before examining the legal issues at play.

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The prosecution of crimes against humanity first took place at the Nuremberg trials of surviving senior Nazis after the second world war. By that time the idea of war crimes was clearly established – but they tended to concern what you should not do to the enemy civilian population.

The problem was that the worst atrocities of the Nazis were committed against their own people – the German Jews (and many, many others too). The idea of crimes against humanity was created to fill this gap, and was used to prosecute the surviving masterminds of the Holocaust.

Conditions for a ‘crime against humanity’

Crimes against humanity are a category that contains several separate crimes. If the right conditions are there, you might talk about “the crime against humanity of murder” or the “crime against humanity of rape”. The conditions are that the underpinning crime takes place against a backdrop of a “widespread or systematic” attack on a civilian population.

The attack does not have to include a literal armed attack: apartheid, for example, was established as a crime against humanity in 1973 in response to the policies of the South African government. It is also not necessary that there is an armed conflict for a particular crime to be a crime against humanity.

Within the category of crimes against humanity is included “deportation and forcible transfer” (see article 7 of the Rome statute of the International Criminal Court).

This is what the Israeli government’s plan for moving Palestinians into a “humanitarian city” would appear to amount to. If the plan stopped at leaving Gazan Palestinians in Rafah then it would be “forcible transfer”, and if they were relocated to another country it would be “deportation”.

Coercion is key to the crime of forcible transfer. It’s fanciful to think that every single Gazan civilian would want to move to Rafah in circumstances where they would be security-checked on entry and thereafter forbidden from leaving.

How could a liveable city, with all the infrastructure needed, even be created? What of the dentists, doctors, teachers, lawyers, mechanics, entrepreneurs and anyone else who was able to make an honest living? Will they really be given a place to carry out their work?

Ethnic cleansing

The term “ethnic cleansing” is sometimes used to describe what is being proposed by the Israeli government. I dislike the term, and it has no meaning in law. It became a commonly used term during the 1990s conflict in the former Yugoslavia when ethnic Serbs, and in some instances ethnic Croats, expelled hundreds of thousands of people of any other ethnicity out of the territory that they held.

For this practice, the president of the former Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milošević, and a string of Bosnian Serb and Bosnian Croat leaders were charged with crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

Milošević died before the ICTY could deliver a verdict in his case, but many others were found guilty. The actions of the Bosnian Serb forces in the town of Srebrenica were even found by the ICTY to have been an act of genocide, because they were not just expelling non-Serbs but wiping them out: at one point in July 1995 they killed around 8,000 men and boys in just a few days.

A lot would depend on the conditions in which the Palestinians would live in the “humanitarian city”. If they were deprived of sufficient food and medical supplies in a way that could only be seen as intended to lead to their deaths, then that too could be held to qualify as an act of genocide.

Justice and accountability

It is clear to me that the forced relocation of Gazans to a “humanitarian city” would violate international law. What is not so clear cut is how to hold its instigators to account.

There are already arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his former defence minister, Yoav Gallant. But there is no international police force and so the ICC relies on participating states to arrest suspects on its behalf. Hungary welcomed Netanyahu in April this year, while announcing it would withdraw from the ICC.

In the same way, Netanyahu flew to Washington DC this week to meet with Donald Trump, but was not arrested because the US doesn’t recognise the ICC. During his visit, Netanyahu announced he would be nominating Trump for the Nobel peace prize.

South Africa has also sought to hold the state of Israel to account at the International Court of Justice, alleging the crime of genocide. The court has yet to rule, saying only that it is plausible that acts of genocide might occur in Gaza.

Since Hamas launched its vicious attack on Isreal on the October 7 2023, there has been constant violence and massive loss of life in the region. However, the proposed “humanitarian city” is not, in my view, a lawful route to peace and stability. As for anyone actually facing justice for the many atrocities that we have seen, an international consensus in favour simply doesn’t exist. And, in the current climate, there’s little sign that it will exist any time soon.

James Sweeney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Plans to relocate Gazans to a ‘humanitarian city’ look like a crime against humanity – international law expert – https://theconversation.com/plans-to-relocate-gazans-to-a-humanitarian-city-look-like-a-crime-against-humanity-international-law-expert-260727

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Hough, Lecturer Sport & Exercise Physiology , University of Westminster

As with many competitions, competitors in the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 tournament face a gruelling match schedule. There are typically only three or four days between matches during the group stage of international tournaments – with some teams even facing tighter turnarounds depending on scheduling.

This congested fixture schedule places a significant physical demand on players, increases injury risk and makes it challenging to sustain peak physical performance. This is why recovery strategies are put into action from the moment the match ends so players are in peak condition for the next match.

The first recovery strategy happens as soon as players arrive in the changing room. There will be a buffet-style food selection with plenty of carbohydrate and protein-based snacks to begin refuelling. Players also typically consume a “recovery” drink. This consists of carbohydrates to restore muscle glycogen (which our body uses for energy), and around 20-30 grams of protein to aid muscle repair.

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Over the following days, players will follow a meticulously-planned diet with the correct balance of carbohydrates, protein, fats and nutrients (such as the polyphenols found in tart cherry juice) to support muscle repair and adaptation.

Sweat loss during matches – particularly in summer tournaments – leads to significant dehydration. Players typically sweat around 1.5 litres or more during a match. Immediately after a match, players are given isotonic drinks to replace the water and electrolytes (specifically sodium) they’ve lost through sweating.

To estimate fluid loss, players’ post-match weight is recorded to guide how much they should drink. A one kilogram reduction in body weight corresponds to roughly one litre of fluid lost through sweating. To re-hydrate, players drink around 1.5 litres per kilogram of weight lost.

Physical recovery

Some players might perform around 10-15 minutes of low-intensity aerobic activity immediately following the match – such as cycling. This light activity maintains blood flow to the muscles, which might reduce the feeling of muscle soreness in the following days, although the evidence for this is inconclusive.

Players often use cold water immersion (ice baths) to reduce inflammation, swelling and muscle soreness. This involves standing or sitting in cold water (which is between 10–15°C) for around 10–15 minutes. Players may also take ice baths in the days between matches. Although there’s debate over whether ice baths speed up recovery, it remains a widely accepted practice in elite sport where rapid recovery is prioritised.

Another option involves alternating between hot water (around 36°C) and cold water – a practice known as contrast water therapy. Contrast water therapy causes the blood vessels to constrict in the cold water, then dilate in the hot water. This practice may enhance blood flow, reduce swelling and decrease muscle soreness.

Players often wear compression garments for several hours post-match and overnight. These garments enhance blood flow and reduce swelling. They’re also shown to reduce pain and muscle soreness.

Recently, inflatable compression leg sleeves have become popular among athletes. These boots inflate and deflate cyclically to promote blood flow and lymphatic drainage. This works similar to a sports massage or contrast water therapy, helping clear inflammatory proteins from the body. This may reduce swelling and decrease the severity of muscle soreness.

Sleep also plays a crucial role in a player’s physical and mental restoration between tournament matches. Players are encouraged to get eight to ten hours of quality sleep per night. Some players even take a 20-90 minute nap in the early afternoon to increase alertness, improve mood and potentially improve performance.

Good sleep hygiene can help players get a good night’s sleep even despite hectic tournament schedules. This involves ensuring their bedroom is cool and dark and minimising screen time before bed.

Preparing for the next match

The day after a match, players will perform a recovery session incorporating some sort of light activity – such as cycling, dynamic movements in the swimming pool and foam rolling (a type of self-massage that uses a foam cylinder to apply pressure to different muscles).

Although light activity does not accelerate muscle recovery, it can offer psychological benefits – such as reducing the feeling of muscle soreness and stiffness. Players may also undergo targeted physiotherapy and massage to reduce muscle soreness, increase mobility and ease pain.

Recovery time varies between players and the level of fatigue they experience. Fatigue will be influenced by the player’s age and their match demands – with players who run a greater distance or perform more sprints and changes of direction typically taking more time to recover between matches.

Players’ fatigue is monitored between matches using various methods – including GPS data, biochemical markers of inflammation and muscle damage, and wellness questionnaires. This data is used to individualise training and recovery.

Players showing elevated fatigue might perform light technical drills, tactical walkthroughs of different plays and strategies the player might use on the field and mobility-focused gym work to maintain sharpness without causing more fatigue. Whereas players whose fatigue levels have returned to close to normal will resume normal training.

Performing on the world stage with the weight of national pride brings intense pressure. Players must contend with media scrutiny coupled with the expectations of coaches and fans. These factors can disrupt sleep and trigger a biological stress response, which may impair recovery.

So to help manage mental stress, teams schedule structured downtime, encouraging players to connect with family or engage in hobbies that promote mental recovery and psychological detachment from football. Sports psychologists may also support players during tournaments, providing mental skills training and helping players develop strategies to cope with stress and pressure.

Paul Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Women’s Euro 2025: what players do to recover between matches — and how they prepare for their next game – https://theconversation.com/womens-euro-2025-what-players-do-to-recover-between-matches-and-how-they-prepare-for-their-next-game-260248

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clodagh Harrington, Lecturer in American Politics, University College Cork

Acclaimed author Michael Lewis wrote a book about the first Trump administration entitled The Fifth Risk, outlining the consequences when people who don’t understand how the government of a vast, complex and multifaceted nation works are put in charge of said government.

The bestseller was more gripping and fascinating than any work of fiction. It outlined the realities that followed Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign promises to shrink the federal bureaucracy. In it, Lewis quotes lawyer Max Stier, who he describes as the American with the greatest understanding of how his nation’s government worked. Stier offers the truism that “the basic role of governments is to keep us safe.”

You might deduce that this means those in charge during, and ahead of, emergencies should know what to do and how to do it. And, they have to want to do it. In the case of Trump term one, there was often evidence that some or all of these three elements were lacking. Evidently, planning for distant risk was not something that Trump and his team were interested in prioritising.

Fast forward to July 2025, and US headlines are filled with images of devastating flash floods in which more than 100 Texans, many of them children, lost their lives. In Kerr County, outside of San Antonio, water levels of the Guadalupe River rose to what was considered a once in a “100-year catastrophe”. Nobody saw it coming, or at least not to the extent that it did. Despite official warnings, the result was one of the worst natural disasters ever faced by the state.

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Days earlier, Trump’s “big beautiful bill” was passed in the Senate with a tight 51:50 majority. Republican Texas senator Ted Cruz was among the supporters of a bill which will cut funding for the National Weather Service (NWS) by 6.7% in 2026. These come on the back of earlier resource reductions to the NWS and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).

Within days of the Texas floods, Democrats were calling for an investigation into whether previous budget cuts might have affected capacity for flood preparedness in Kerr County.

Read more:
How Donald Trump’s economic policies, including uncertainty around tariffs, are damaging the US economy

For the bereaved, talk of culpability will hardly bring solace. And any immediate political blame game presents as unseemly in the middle of so much personal tragedy. But a New York Times article reported that “some experts say that staff shortages might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate response”. Such speculative language does not offer clarity or reassurance, and even the often brash president has thus far refrained from finger pointing.

Nonetheless, uncomfortable conversations are necessary, as it is clear that slashing federal funding does not serve the nation well. Trump already had budget cutting form, as his first-term efforts to slash NOAA and related programme funding demonstrated.

In 2017, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was also targeted for staff and funding reductions. This came along with the appointment of EPA chiefs who appeared uninterested in prioritising the climate crisis. More recently, the controversial spending cuts agency the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), headed by Elon Musk, included NOAA in its sights.

Read more:
Why Texas Hill Country, where a devastating flood killed dozens, is one of the deadliest places in the US for flash flooding

Yale University’s Center for Environmental Communication said that while there was no clear evidence that budget cuts had affected weather forecasting in the Texas case, Trump’s planned additional cuts would affect some of NOAA’s key flash flood forecast tools. This includes the Flash project, which improves accuracy, timing and specificity of warnings, such as those that occurred in Texas on July 4. It also said that the weather service had lost many of its most senior staff, which would increase the risks associated with weather-related tragedies.

Cuts and the climate

Across the board, Doge has targeted other agencies that the public rely on in a crisis, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), where plans to reduce staffing by about 20% are currently coming into effect. With responsibility for managing natural and climate-fuelled disasters from hurricanes to floods, the agency has become busier in recent years as disasters have evolved from seasonal to perennial.

Rob Moore, the director of flooding solutions at the Natural Resources Defense Council, an influential environmental body, argued that “America’s disaster safety net is unraveling.”

There are likely to be more floods, and other nature-based catastrophes with multiple probable causes and features. While outright prevention may not always be possible, governmental risk and disaster management can help to preclude the devastation seen on July 4 in Texas.

The problem with responding to long-term risk with short-term or inadequate solutions is that one day, an existential threat could arrive for which the US will not be ready. The danger may not even be as overwhelming as a global pandemic or nuclear threat. It could be as mundane as a local river overflowing. For those who lost their loved ones in Texas, there is nothing distant about their anguish.

A country with the world’s largest economy does not have to cut federal bureaucracy corners. Wasting tax dollars is never a vote winner, but funding vital emergency services like Fema and the National Weather Service is a fundamental feature of an advanced democracy. As is investing in the technology and personnel to do all possible to predict flash floods. Trump would do well to remember this as he meets the bereaved in Kerr County.

Clodagh Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s budget cuts are adding to risk in life-threatening floods and emergencies – https://theconversation.com/trumps-budget-cuts-are-adding-to-risk-in-life-threatening-floods-and-emergencies-260710

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexandra Makin, Third Century Research Fellow, Manchester Metropolitan University

The Bayeux tapestry is set to return to the UK for the first time in almost 1,000 years. One of the most important cultural artefacts in the world, it is to be displayed at the British Museum from September 2026.

Its significance for history is unquestioned – but you may not think of the Bayeux tapestry as a work of art. Sure, you may recognise it from your history lessons or political campaigns. Maybe you like embroidery and textiles or know about it because of the modern versions it inspired – think the Game of Thrones tapestry or the Great Tapestry of Scotland. Perhaps you are an early medievalist and use it as comparative evidence.

For me, this now famous wall hanging is undoubtedly art, created with great skill. What fascinates me as a textile archaeologist is how early medieval people saw and understood the tapestry.

First, let’s contextualise it a little. The hanging is not a woven tapestry but an embroidery, stitched in wool threads on nine panels of linen fabric that were then sewn together. It was made in around 1070, probably in England. Nobody knows how big it originally was, but it now measures 68.3 metres long by approximately 70cm high.

Starting at the end of Edward the Confessor’s reign (1042-1066), the tapestry’s comic book narrative tells a vivid, very modern story of the struggle for power and the English throne – and the brutal means William of Normandy (1028-1087) used to get it.

This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.

It follows the highs and lows of Harold Godwinson, Edward the Confessor’s brother-in-law, who became king after Edward’s death in 1066, and his eventual downfall at the Battle of Hastings.

The end of the hanging, and therefore the story, is now missing but it was probably the triumphal coronation of William. It would have provided a mirror in symmetry to the first scene, which depicts an enthroned Edward.

Sensory archaeology of the tapestry

Today, the hanging is famous because it is the only surviving example of its kind. But documentary sources from early medieval England demonstrate that this type of wall hanging was a popular way for families to depict their stories and great deeds.

A good example is the Byrhtnoth wall hanging, which Æthelflæd, the wife of an Anglo-Saxon Ealdorman of Essex Byrhtnoth, gave to the church in Ely after he was killed in 991. We know that the Normans also understood these storytelling wall hangings because Abbot Baudri of Bourgueil (c. 1050-1130) expertly incorporated such a device in a poem he wrote to honour Adela of Blois (c. 1067-1137), the daughter of William the Conqueror and Matilda (c. 1031-1083).

The Bayeux tapestry was, therefore, an obvious way to tell people about the downfall of the English and the rise of the Normans. But this is not all. The early medieval population of Britain loved riddles, multilayered meanings and hidden messages. Evidence survives in pieces like the gold buckle from the 7th-century Sutton Hoo ship burial, the early 8th-century Franks Casket and the 10th-century Book of Exeter. So it is not surprising that people today have argued for hidden messages in the Bayeux tapestry.

While these concepts are interesting, so much emphasis has been placed on them and the role the embroiderers played in creating them, that other ways of early medieval viewing and understanding have been ignored.

Early medieval society viewed its world through the senses. By using sensory archaeology, a theoretical approach that helps researchers understand how past societies interacted with their worlds through sight, touch, taste, smell and sound, we can imagine how people encountering the Bayeux tapestry would have connected with and understood it.

Art historian Linda Neagley has argued that pre-Renaissance people interacted with art visually, kinaesthetically (sensory perception through bodily movement) and physically. The Bayeux tapestry would have been hung at eye level to enable this. So if we take expert in Anglo-Saxon culture Gale Owen-Crocker’s idea that the tapestry was originally hung in a square with certain scenes facing each other, people would have stood in the centre. That would make it an 11th-century immersive space with scenes corresponding and echoing each other, drawing the viewer’s attention, playing on their senses and understanding of the story they thought they knew.

If we imagine ourselves entering that space, we move from a cooler, stone-hewn room into a warmer, softer area, encased in linen and wool, their smell tickling our noses. Outside sounds would be deadened, the movement of people softened, voices quietened. People would move from one scene to another, through the open doors of the stage-like buildings where the action inside can be seen and watched, boldly or surreptitiously. The view might be partially blocked by others and their reactions and gesticulations as they engaged with and discussed what they saw.

The bright colours of the embroidery would have made a kaleidoscope of colour, a blur that defined itself the closer people got to the work. The boldness and three-dimensionality of the stitching helped to draw them into the action while any movement of the hanging brought the imagery alive.

Here are the main characters in the room with you, telling you their story, inviting you to join them on their journeys of victory or doom.

As onlookers discussed what they saw, or read the inscriptions, they interacted with the embroidered players, giving them voice and enabling them to join the conversation. If the hanging formed part of a banquet then the smell of food, clanking of dishes and movement of the fabric and stitchwork as servants passed would have enhanced the experience. The feasting scenes dotted throughout the hanging would be echoed in the hall.

I believe the Bayeux tapestry was not simply an inanimate art object to be viewed and read from the outside. It was an immersive retelling of the end of an era and the start of something new. When you entered its space you became part of that story, sensorially reliving it, keeping it alive. To me, this is the true power of this now famous embroidery.

Beyond the canon

As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Alexandra Makin’s suggestion:

The ITV series Unforgotten, now in its sixth season (with a seventh on the way) gripped me from the start. It follows a team of British police detectives as they track down the killers of people whose bodies have been recently found, but who were murdered years before.

As they do, we, the viewer, are given access to the characters’ often emotional stories. We are brought into their sphere and experience their pain, distress, happiness, horror. We get unrivalled access, eventually, to the motives for their seemingly strange actions. As with the Bayeux tapestry, we are swallowed up in their worlds. This is achieved by Chris Lang’s fabulous writing, the cinematography and the exquisite acting.

Together these elements make a whole, opening a window, immersing you in a world full of powerful sensory engagements. For me, this is classic art in the making.

Alexandra Makin undertakes unpaid consultancy work for the Bayeux Tapestry Museum.

– ref. Bayeux tapestry set to return to the UK – in medieval times it was like an immersive art installation – https://theconversation.com/bayeux-tapestry-set-to-return-to-the-uk-in-medieval-times-it-was-like-an-immersive-art-installation-258438

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Divya Venkatesh, BBSRC Discovery Fellow, University of Oxford

Cambodia’s Ministry of Health recently confirmed the country’s twelfth human case of H5N1 avian influenza so far this year. The patient, a five-year-old boy from Kampot province, is currently in intensive care with severe respiratory symptoms.

The announcement, on July 3, came just days after a 19-month-old child in neighbouring Takeo province died from the same virus.

To date, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission. But the steady increase in cases has renewed attention to the risks posed by H5N1. This highly pathogenic bird flu virus spreads rapidly among poultry and occasionally jumps to humans – often with deadly consequences.

Since 2003, there have been at least 954 reported human infections globally, nearly half of them fatal, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Experts have long considered H5N1 a serious pandemic threat due to its high mortality rate and potential to evolve.

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The recent Cambodian cases are linked to the 2.3.2.1e lineage of H5N1 (previously known as 2.3.2.1c), a strain that has circulated for decades in poultry across Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. From 2005 to 2014, Cambodia saw sporadic but severe human infections – then almost a decade passed without new cases.

That changed in 2023 when six human cases were reported. The numbers have since climbed: ten in 2024, and now 12 in the first half of 2025. Of these recent infections, at least 12 – about 43% – have been fatal. A troubling pattern is also emerging: seven of this year’s cases occurred in June alone, according to the WHO’s latest Disease Outbreak News update.

Animal pandemic

Globally, however, a different H5N1 lineage – 2.3.4.4b – has dominated in recent years. This strain sparked a devastating wave of avian outbreaks starting in 2021, sweeping across continents and decimating wild bird and poultry populations. It also spread to mammals, leading scientists to label it an “animal pandemic”.

Although it no longer causes mass die-offs, 2.3.4.4b remains widespread and dangerous, particularly because of its capacity to infect mammals. It has been linked to about 70 human cases in the US alone, with only one death recorded so far, and is under investigation for suspected mammal-to-mammal transmission in species, including US dairy cattle and seals.

Influenza viruses are notoriously prone to genetic reassortment – a process by which two or more strains infect the same host and exchange genetic material. These events can sometimes generate new, more transmissible or deadly variants. In April 2024, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization reported the emergence of a reassortant virus in Vietnam. This new strain combines surface proteins from the long-standing 2.3.2.1e virus with internal genes from the globally dominant 2.3.4.4b.

Evidence suggests that this reassortant virus may be driving the rise in Cambodian human infections.

A 2024 study, which has not yet undergone peer review, found that the new virus carries genetic markers that could enhance its ability to infect humans – although it is not yet considered human-adapted. According to the study’s authors, this reassortant form has become the predominant strain found in poultry across the region in recent years.

So far, all confirmed human cases in Cambodia have been linked to direct contact with infected or dead poultry – often in small, rural backyards. This suggests that the country’s “one health” strategy, which aims to integrate human, animal and environmental health responses, is functioning as intended. Although some gaps clearly remain.

Food safety and food security remain serious concerns across much of Cambodia and south-east Asia. Limited veterinary oversight, informal poultry markets, lack of compensation for poultry losses due to disease, and poor biosecurity may offer the virus opportunities to persist and evolve – and potentially reach more people.

Since the COVID pandemic, advances in disease surveillance and reporting have made it easier to detect and confirm human infections, Dr Vijaykrishna Dhanasekaran, head of the Pathogen Evolution Lab at Hong Kong University, told me over email. However, he notes that surveillance remains heavily concentrated in urban areas and the commercial poultry sector, while rural settings and interactions with wild birds are poorly monitored.

Expanding surveillance to these overlooked areas will be vital, he says, if the world hopes to better understand – and prepare for – the next potential influenza pandemic.

Divya Venkatesh receives funding from BBSRC.

– ref. Child hospitalised as bird flu cases climb in Cambodia – https://theconversation.com/child-hospitalised-as-bird-flu-cases-climb-in-cambodia-260565