‘Hamnet’ is making audiences break down in tears – and upending beliefs about male grief

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jeanette Tran, Associate Professor of English, Drake University

Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s film ‘Hamnet.’ Focus Features

Did you cry during “Hamnet”?

On social media, many viewers shared the overwhelming emotions elicited by the film, which has been nominated for eight Academy Awards.

One viewer commented on Reddit that the movie was an “out of body experience.” Another posted on X that it left them “covered in tears” and “ugly crying the entire drive home.” New York Times columnist Sarah Wildman wrote that the film left her “sobbing in my seat.”

In “Hamnet,” which director Chloé Zhao adapted from Maggie O’Farrell’s 2020 novel of the same name, William Shakespeare’s youngest son, Hamnet, dies of the bubonic plague at the age of 11. The film traces the profound impact this loss has on his family, while also suggesting that Hamnet’s death influenced the genesis of Shakespeare’s tragic masterpiece “Hamlet.”

But as critics debate whether “Hamnet” constitutes “grief porn” or is instead a brilliant field guide for how to move through the dark woods of sorrow, I found the film so compelling due to how the characters themselves grieve.

Much like Shakespeare’s “Hamlet,” “Hamnet” critiques the notion that grieving is somehow unmanly.

A mother mourns

“Hamnet” offers an intimate portrait of Shakespeare’s personal life, though aspects of the story are highly fictionalized.

In the film, Shakespeare and his wife, commonly known as Anne but renamed Agnes in “Hamnet,” fall in love, bear three children and suffer through the tragic death of 11-year-old Hamnet.

The couple’s marriage is tested by the contrasting ways they grieve Hamnet’s death. Agnes believes Shakespeare, who is in London writing plays when Hamnet dies, fails to grieve their son appropriately because of his desire to return to London so shortly after Hamnet’s death. At the same time, the film suggests Agnes would prefer to stay in the family’s dilapidated home forever because it tethers her more closely to Hamnet’s memory.

In a feminist move, the film notably centers Agnes, who’s been an afterthought in popular memory: She’s largely known for Shakespeare bequeathing her his “second best bed.”

Her perfect love for her children is made palpable through her vigilant care for them – in health, sickness and death.

And yet, “Hamnet” would not be “Hamnet” without Shakespeare and the way his failure to grieve affects Agnes. Agnes losing her son is the film’s central tragedy. But the second tragedy is her loss of faith in her husband, who suddenly strikes her as cold and overly career driven.

How could a man capable of writing poetry with such emotional depth be so clueless about how to grieve their dead son? For Agnes, this is no man at all.

Then and now, expressions of grief are often gendered.

In her 1996 study “Telling Tears in the English Renaissance,” literary scholar Marjory E. Lange explains how in Shakespeare’s time, men who cried might be perceived as being dramatic and weak for appropriating a female form of expression; those who shed tears in public – to borrow a contemporary term – could be accused of “sadfishing” for attention, even if they were genuinely overcome with emotion.

And in her monograph “Masculinity and Emotion in Early Modern English Literature,” literary scholar Jennifer Vaught also notes that men during Shakespeare’s life were expected to be stoic in their grief.

But Vaught complicates the idea that male weeping was universally frowned upon back then. She points to how emotion routinely serves as a springboard for virtuous action in the era’s literature. For example, in Shakespeare’s tragicomic romance “The Winter’s Tale,” King Leontes’ tears facilitate his evolution from jealous, abusive monarch to loving husband and father. Without this grief-induced transformation, the reunion with his wife and daughter – whom he believed were dead – would never have been possible.

To grieve or not to grieve?

Zhao’s “Hamnet” and Shakespeare’s “Hamlet” each explore the anxiety men can feel about expressing grief. But they also find ways to show how that grief can be both beautiful and productive.

In “Hamlet,” Hamlet’s uncle, Claudius, challenges his masculinity due to his overwrought grieving style.

Hamlet’s grief is essentially the polar opposite of how Shakespeare’s is portrayed in “Hamnet”: When Hamlet enters the stage, he’s wearing an inky black coat, which symbolizes his ongoing mourning of his dead father. His mother, Gertrude, has moved on after just two months and has married her dead husband’s brother, Claudius.

Claudius is quick to chastise Hamlet for his “unmanly grief.” He acknowledges that “tis sweet and commendable” that Hamlet mourns his father, but to persist in grief amounts to a weakness of heart, reason and faith. Why mourn death when it is so common and perhaps even willed by God? Instead of crying, Claudius suggests Hamlet profess, “This must be so.”

“Hamlet” reveals how grieving men are held to different standards than women, and that these fluctuating standards can be contradictory and confusing.

It isn’t that Zhao’s Shakespeare doesn’t feel Hamnet’s loss with the same profundity that Agnes does; he just can’t express it in the same manner. In the same way Claudius suggests Hamlet must move on because the kingdom needs governance, Shakespeare insists on getting back to work to fulfill his artistic calling, provide for his family and, in a surprising twist, grieve his son.

‘Hamlet’ as a vehicle for grief

The satisfying resolution of the film reveals that Shakespeare has been living in deplorable conditions in London.

Agnes believed he was enjoying the trappings of his budding celebrity. But the small, disheveled room above the theater where he sleeps and writes suggests he has been mourning in private. He channels his private grief into his very public play “Hamlet,” which, when performed before Agnes, reads as a coded articulation of his love for her, their dead son and the playwright’s endless well of sorrow.

The play cleverly allows the deceased Hamnet to live on perpetually through the character Hamlet.

At the film’s start, Zhao cites literary scholar Stephen Greenblatt’s finding that Hamnet and Hamlet were the same name and entirely interchangeable, which makes Hamnet’s death and the birth of “Hamlet” feel inevitable. Zhao invites viewers to imagine that the character of Hamlet grieves openly in a way that Shakespeare does not have the courage or capacity to do. Though Claudius ridicules Hamlet for his emotional vulnerability, his grief drives him to avenge his father and emerge as a hero.

Even the most open-minded readers may fall into the trap of emasculating Hamlet, simply because he begins the play by visibly grieving.

I’ll sometimes ask my students or colleagues to tell me what they think Hamlet looks like, and their descriptions often play into anti-masculine stereotypes: The Hamlet of their imagination is usually slim, slight and a bit wan, much like actor David Tennant, who played Hamlet in the Royal Shakespeare Company’s 2008 production. Franco Zeffirelli’s casting of Mel Gibson as Hamlet in his 1990 film adaption of Shakespeare’s play created a stir because it went so clearly against type.

Now I hope reading Shakespeare’s “Hamlet” alongside Zhao’s “Hamnet” can instill an appreciation for manly grief, one that expands the possibilities of who Hamlet can be.

It has become trendy to say real men cry. But Zhao’s film suggests they can also create emotionally devastating art that invites audiences to cry with and for them.

The Conversation

Jeanette Tran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘Hamnet’ is making audiences break down in tears – and upending beliefs about male grief – https://theconversation.com/hamnet-is-making-audiences-break-down-in-tears-and-upending-beliefs-about-male-grief-277474

We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jennifer B. Nuzzo, Professor of Epidemiology and Director of the Pandemic Center, Brown University

The U.S. eliminated measles in 2000, but the disease is once again circulating around the country. Marina Demidiuk/iStock via Getty Images Plus

In the three decades between 1993 and 2024, measles in the U.S. was relatively rare – a few hundred cases each year, at most. But suddenly, the disease has become so entrenched in American life that it sometimes fails to make headlines when a new outbreak erupts.

As of March 2026, measles has been continuously circulating around the U.S. for more than a year, starting with an outbreak in Texas that lasted from January to August 2025. Before that outbreak was declared over, an outbreak on the Utah and Arizona border began in August and is ongoing. An outbreak in South Carolina began in September, drastically increased in January 2026, and continues.

Thirty states have had measles cases this year; 47 have seen cases since the start of 2025. Health officials across the U.S. have confirmed 1,300 infections already this year as of March 6, putting the country on track to surpass 2025’s numbers, which were the highest in 35 years.

We study outbreak preparedness and response at Brown University’s Pandemic Center, and we view the return of measles in the U.S. as a grim signal of what’s to come.

Low levels of vaccination across the country mean measles outbreaks will continue to occur, needlessly hospitalizing and killing the unvaccinated. But beyond these harms, the disease’s resurgence serves as a serious warning about the country’s capacity to manage infectious disease threats of all kinds.

An eliminated disease returns

Measles’ return is no mystery: At its root is the falling vaccination rate.

Around 90% of the U.S. population has received the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles, mumps and rubella, and in some regions of the country, the rate is below 60%. Since about 2019-2020, that overall number has dropped below the 95% needed for herd immunity. It is necessary to keep that rate nationally, but maintaining herd immunity at the local level is equally important in order to prevent measles from finding pockets of unvaccinated communities.

Measles can have serious long-term health consequences.

Countries that remain free of continuous transmission for 12 months are deemed to have eliminated measles – a designation the U.S. achieved in 2000. The Pan American Health Organization was scheduled to decide in April whether the U.S. should lose that designation, but the organization postponed its meeting until November.

Current trends suggest that both the U.S. and Mexico, which has also been battling the disease, may lose this status – as Canada did in November 2025. All three countries have seen their vaccination rates fall below the 95% threshold, and their outbreaks may share epidemiological links.

A serious, long-term threat to US health

By any measure, the ongoing U.S. measles outbreaks signal that the disease has returned in a way that will have serious adverse health consequences. In 2025, three people died from measles in the U.S. That is more than in any year since the disease’s elimination 25 years ago.

Of the country’s 2,283 confirmed measles cases in 2025, 11% were sick enough to be hospitalized. In South Carolina, where most measles cases have been reported in 2026, hospitals don’t have to report when patients are admitted due to measles complications, so the actual number of hospitalizations due to measles could be much higher.

People who recover from measles can experience complications such as pneumonia, which can lead to death, or encephalitis, which can later lead to deafness or intellectual disabilities from the brain swelling. The virus can also affect the immune system, making people more susceptible to other infections over the long term, even ones they’ve had before.

In rare instances – though more likely if someone is infected as a child – measles patients can develop a progressive dementia known as subacute sclerosing panencephalitis, or SSPE, anywhere from two to 10 years after their infection. SSPE always leads to death. This past year, a school-age child in Los Angeles died of this condition years after being infected with measles as an infant, before they were old enough to be vaccinated.

Measles is an economic scourge

Recurring outbreaks of measles in the U.S. will mean high economic costs. Countries have pursued measles elimination in part because of the clear economic benefits of stopping domestic transmission of the virus.

Studies have found that the cost of containing measles outbreaks is often as much as tens of thousands of dollars per case. One outbreak in Washington state in 2018-2019, which involved 72 cases – a small outbreak compared with what states are reporting now – cost US$3.2 million for the public health response, medical expenses and productivity losses. The Common Health Coalition found that a sustained 1% drop in MMR coverage would cost the U.S. billions across health care systems and the economy.

A sign in front of a mobile health vehicle asks people not to enter if they are experiencing measles symptoms.
Controlling a measles epidemic, like the one in South Carolina that started in 2025, can cost millions of dollars.
Sean Rayford/Stringer, Getty Images News

An opening for infectious disease

As concerning as recent outbreaks of measles have been, they herald a larger systemic problem.

How a country controls measles can be viewed as a proxy for how well it would control many other diseases. That’s because the steps for stopping the spread are the same: deploying vaccines to prevent infections, detecting and isolating cases when they occur, identifying exposed contacts of infected people and making sure they stay home if they’re likely to be contagious, and treating sick people safely.

But besides measles, we’ve already seen infections that were once controlled, like whooping cough, that rose sharply in 2024 and remained high in 2025 compared with before the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s because controlling the spread of many infectious diseases depends on the public’s trust in the basic components of public health. Declining MMR vaccine coverage reveals underlying challenges in public support for vaccines. Public confidence in the current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is also eroding, according to polling from 2023 to early 2026 by the health policy organization KFF. Less than half of the people polled trust the government even “a fair amount” to provide reliable vaccine information.

These growing cracks in the country’s public health armor will complicate efforts to protect Americans from future disease threats – whether an outbreak, a pandemic or a biological attack.

The Conversation

Jennifer B. Nuzzo receives general research funding from the Gates Foundation, Wellcome, and NTI, to support general policy and practice research on infectious disease trends, science and practice. This support is not specific to the topic covered by this piece.

Andrea Uhlig does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. We study pandemics, and the resurgence of measles is a grim sign of what’s coming – https://theconversation.com/we-study-pandemics-and-the-resurgence-of-measles-is-a-grim-sign-of-whats-coming-275059

‘The Tibetan Book of the Dead’ is actually not just about death

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Jue Liang, Assistant Professor of Religious Studies, Case Western Reserve University

Tibetan fabric painting from the 17th or 18th century depicting a Bardo Cycle deity, representing transitional states between death and rebirth in Tibetan Buddhist belief. Dea/ V. Pirozzi/DeAgostini via Getty Images

You’ve seen it in bookstores – the metallic turquoise spine peeking out from the shelf under “Eastern Religions.” Or, perhaps, another of its more understated editions rendered in muted tones. It is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead,” arguably the most well-known Tibetan Buddhist text outside Tibet.

It was first translated by American anthropologist Walter Evans-Wentz in 1927. The book’s philosophy of death and rebirth as spiritual practice was adapted in 1964 by Timothy Leary, the founder of psychedelic studies, to guide psychedelic experiences. Actor Richard Gere narrated the audio version of the book in 2008, helping introduce it to a broad audience.

As someone who studies Tibetan Buddhism, I’m often asked: What is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead”?

Most famous book in Tibetan Buddhism

In the Princeton University series “Lives of Great Religious Books,” there are only two texts representing Buddhism. One is the “Lotus Sutra,” the most popular Buddhist scripture on universal compassion, flexible teaching methods and potential for Buddhahood for all beings; the other is “The Tibetan Book of the Dead.”

Originally, the book was not even called “The Tibetan Book of the Dead” – and this book is not just about death.

The full title of the original Tibetan text from the 14th century translates as “The Great Liberation by Hearing in the Intermediate States.” In Tibetan, it is shortened to “Bardo Thodrol,” which loosely translated to “liberation upon hearing.”

The English title took off with Evans-Wentz’s first translation. But Evans-Wentz translated only a part of the book, and the translation was based on oral commentary rather than the Tibetan text.

The first full translation was done in 2007 by scholar and translator of Tibetan Buddhism Gyurme Dorje. It has been endorsed through an introduction written by the Dalai Lama, the most recognized Tibetan Buddhist leader of our time.

The 11 chapters of the book teach one how to seize every opportunity to become enlightened, even in the least possible place. It all starts with the teaching of bardo.

The six ‘bardos’

The Tibetan word bardo means “intermediate state” or “the state of being in-between.” In its origin in Indian Buddhist teachings, the bardo, or “antarabhava” in Sanskrit, refers to the time period between the end of this life and the beginning of the next.

A painting shows a heavenly vision, with multiple deities seated in concentric circles around a central figure.
A 19th-century Tibetan paining of the bardo shows a vision of peaceful deities.
Musée Guimet via Wikimedia Commons

However, in the Tibetan text “Bardo Thodrol,” there are six bardos: the bardo of living, the bardo of meditative concentration, the bardo of dreams, the bardo of the time of death, the bardo of reality and the bardo of rebirth.

Here, the bardo is no longer limited to the time after death, but refers to meaningful life stages that provide opportunities to transform our consciousness and habitual ways of living.

The bardo of living, as its name suggests, is the time between birth and death in the current lifetime. However, there are other bardos while one is alive: the bardo of meditative concentration and the bardo of dreams.

The bardo of dreams provides a reminder of the illusory nature of things in the dream state; the bardo of meditative concentration is a time to cultivate insight into the nature of things as empty. It prepares one for the inevitable bardo of the time of death.

Bardo of death and enlightenment

Finally, reaching the end of one life, the bardo of the time of death and the bardo of reality occupy the center of attention in the text.

The text “Bardo Thodrol” first discusses physical and mental signs of impending death and how to postpone it. Practices for averting death are based on the theory that human lives exist due to the coming together of natural, supernatural, human and divine elements. Therefore, performing rituals that realign these elements might allow one to delay death temporarily. It also includes rituals and practices to be performed by others after death, so that the dead can still become enlightened in the afterlife.

The deathbed and post-death rituals include performing devotional prayers to peaceful and wrathful deities oneself. The rituals also include requesting others to read the “Bardo Thodrol” to the deceased and post-death meditation by the deceased on the same peaceful and wrathful deities. The text also suggests wearing amulets that bring blessings and aid the transference of consciousness.

These rituals are grounded in the Buddhist and Hindu belief of “samsara”, or cycles of life and death. Here, the post-death period is not the end of all possibilities or a predetermined failure, but another opportunity for liberation in the next life.

Even the bardo of rebirth, where the yet-to-be-enlightened being enters another round of existence in samsara, is not the final point. Buddhists believe that previous interventions, such as prayers, rituals and meditative practice, could still be beneficial in providing better rebirths or positive karmic effects.

Some might see this death-focused meditation as a joyless outlook on life. But many have relied on the notion of the bardo for inspiration. Novelists George Saunders’ 2018 book “Lincoln in the Bardo” and Amie Barrodale’s 2025 “Trip” use the concept of bardo to narrate stories that matter for the living, showing that death is not the end for human relationships.

In “Lincoln in the Bardo,” Saunders, an American writer, imagines the bardo as a space explored by the protagonist, Willie Lincoln, the deceased 11-year-old son of President Abraham Lincoln. Willie finds himself wandering in that space – a cemetery – encountering all kinds of spirits, ghosts and unsettled souls.

In “Trip,” Barrodale, another American novelist, tells the story of a mother who, after her sudden death, travels around the world to search for her son, who was lost at sea with a stranger. Both novels unfold in the post-death realm, where spirits sometimes are believed to speak but are rarely seen.

Lessons from the ‘Bardo Thodrol’

This way of thinking about the process of life as a series of bardos are intended to teach two lessons. One, challenging times, such as death, do not have to be an end point. Rather, if we think of them as a step into something new, we might be able to seize the opportunity to transform ourselves.

The “Bardo Thodrol” teaches its practitioner to recognize the importance of now. It instructs:

Having obtained a previous human body, this one time
I do not have the luxury of remaining on a distracted path.

Two, we live in constantly shifting contexts that require us to adapt accordingly. While the bardo of living calls for “renouncing laziness,” the bardo of dreams invites one to leave behind the “corpse-like, insensitive sleep of delusion.”

In other words, one needs to recognize the appropriate time and place for different practices. For example, a time usually marked by slumber might be countered with diligence, while a time of dedicated attention could be harnessed for deeper reflection.

Even in the bardo of rebirth, where one might be discouraged by the prospect of death, people need to keep in mind that their good actions in past lives could still have a positive effect for the current situation.

Not everyone may believe in samsara, the notion that we live on for innumerable lifetimes. However, the teaching from the “Bardo Thodrol” still applies – the moment of uncertainty or finality is not a source of fear but an opportunity for profound transformation.

The Conversation

Jue Liang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. ‘The Tibetan Book of the Dead’ is actually not just about death – https://theconversation.com/the-tibetan-book-of-the-dead-is-actually-not-just-about-death-247174

As Iran war expands, some conservative Christians interpret the conflict through biblical prophecies

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Shalom Goldman, Professor Emeritus of Religion, Middlebury College

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran on March 7, 2026. Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

As the American and Israeli war with Iran unfolds, some American Christians are speaking of the conflict in biblical terms, mapping end-time prophecies on to current events in the Middle East.

In a sermon on March 1, 2026, for example, John Hagee, founder of Christians United for Israel, described the war as part of a divine plan. “Prophetically, we’re right on cue,” he said. Later, he prayed that “God Almighty is brought onto the battlefield and the enemies of Zion and the enemies of the United States can be destroyed before our eyes. Let God arise and let his enemies be scattered.”

Meanwhile, Christian singer and activist Sean Feucht referred to “the end-time open doors of what (God) is going to do in Iran when this regime is prayerfully removed.”

This type of apocalyptic thought has roots in the 19th century, when many American preachers turned toward more literal readings of the Bible. Those readings also emphasized the Bible’s account of God promising the “Holy Land” to Abraham and his descendants. But Christian Zionism’s influence on politics has grown over the past half-century, as I write about in my book “Zeal for Zion.” Today, that mindset seems to be moving into the halls of the American government and the military.

End of an age

“Dispensationalism” is a Protestant idea that human history is divided into different ages, or dispensations, that each unfold God’s plan for the world. Churches that embrace it, which tend to be evangelical, believe that the current dispensation is coming to an end. But that time can be ushered in only by great suffering, a period known as “Jacob’s tribulations.” Israel is the place where they believe these tribulations will begin, and where they will culminate in Jesus’ Second Coming.

In the U.S., the most powerful manifestation of dispensationalist and apocalyptic thought is Christian Zionism. The term refers to many Christians’ strong support for Israel, rooted in the biblical account of God’s covenant with the Hebrew people.

Even before Israel was established, conservative evangelicals have long been enamored of the idea of a Jewish return to Zion. In the 1940s, Protestant emphasis on these biblical narratives influenced American public opinion and helped make the case for a Jewish state.

But in the first two decades of Israel’s history, from 1948-68, fundamentalist Christians had few direct allies among either Israeli or American Jews. Neither evinced much interest in working with conservative Christians, some of whom were involved in missionary work. Why would Jewish groups ally themselves with Christians seeking to convert them?

Turning point

The outcomes of Israel’s 1967 war with a coalition of Arab states changed that situation. From Syria, Israel conquered and occupied the Golan Heights; and from Jordan, East Jerusalem and the West Bank of the Jordan. From Egypt, Israel won the Sinai Peninsula, from which it eventually withdrew, and the Gaza Strip.

As Israeli journalist Gershom Gorenberg noted, “The Six Day War did more than create a new political and military map in the Middle East. It also changed the mythic map, in a piece of the world where myths have always bent reality.”

A black and white photo shows the backs of three men in military uniforms facing a wall of large, rough stone blocks.
Israeli soldiers pray at the Western Wall after the capture of Jerusalem during the Six Day War in June 1967.
ullstein bild/ullstein bild via Getty Images

In some evangelicals’ view, Israel’s victories in the Arab-Israeli wars were the triumph of divinely ordained good over evil. For them, God’s plan in history, revealed to humanity in the Bible, was now unfolding in the Holy Land. Many conservative Christians view the Jewish return to Israel as a prelude to the Second Coming.

This theology had appeared before the 1967 war. But afterward, it placed its hope on the fulfillment of a quite specific scenario: that the government of the Jewish state would rebuild the ancient Temple in Jerusalem and thus set the stage for the end of days. With the return of Jesus, the historic mission of the Jewish people would be fulfilled. Many Jews would perish, and the remnants would become the vanguard of believers in Jesus.

This scenario, once promoted by small groups within some Protestant denominations, had by the 1990s become widely diffused in popular culture. The “Left Behind” series, apocalyptic novels inspired by the biblical Book of Revelation, sold over 80 million copies.

A brown-haired main in a suit grins as he sits at a table in front of a large crowd inside.
Tim LaHaye, co-author of the ‘Left Behind’ series, signs books in a Christian book store in Spartanburg, S.C., in 2004.
David Howells/Corbis via Getty Images

After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, hostility toward Islam also fueled Christian conservatives’ support for Israel. Televangelist Pat Robertson, for example, said Islam was “violent at its core.”

Around the same time, in a significant political shift, many American Jewish organizations welcomed Christian Zionists’ support. As Israel’s treatment of Palestinians attracted more criticism, the Israeli government and some Jewish groups in the U.S. began to rethink their relationship to conservative Christians.

In 2002, the Anti-Defamation League, an advocacy group that has historically promoted liberal and civil rights causes, took out an ad in major American newspapers. In that ad it reprinted a statement by Ralph Reed, former head of the Christian Coalition, which was founded by televangelist Pat Robertson.

Into government

Today, however, it seems Christian Zionism’s influence has risen to a new level in government.

Since the strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026, the Military Religious Freedom Foundation, a watchdog group, reported over 200 complaints about commanders telling troops across branches of the U.S. armed forces that the current war with Iran was part of a divine plan, invoking biblical ideas about the “end times.”

“Anytime Israel or the U.S. is involved in the Middle East, we get this stuff about Christian nationalists who’ve taken over our government, and certainly our U.S. military,” Air Force veteran Mikey Weinstein, the foundation’s president, told The Guardian.

A further sign of Christian Zionism moving into government was the 2025 appointment of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. Among the most influential and prominent Christian Zionists, Huckabee, a Baptist minister, for years led “Holy Land tours” to Israel.

“I believe it is a special place because God made it special,” Huckabee told conservative Christian activist Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated in September 2025. “I believe the Scripture, Genesis 12: Those who bless Israel will be blessed, those who curse Israel will be cursed. I want to be on the blessing side, not the curse side.”

The Conversation

Shalom Goldman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. As Iran war expands, some conservative Christians interpret the conflict through biblical prophecies – https://theconversation.com/as-iran-war-expands-some-conservative-christians-interpret-the-conflict-through-biblical-prophecies-277488

Accepter (ou non) de vivre à proximité d’une centrale nucléaire, une question loin d’être réglée

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Renaud Coulomb, Professor of Economics, Mines Paris – PSL

Depuis l’accident nucléaire de Fukushima en 2011, la perception du risque nucléaire a changé, et cela, bien au-delà des frontières du Japon. En Angleterre, une étude a montré que les logements situés à moins de 20 km des centrales ont perdu en moyenne 4,2 % de leur valeur à la suite de la catastrophe et connu une forte recomposition sociale. Un signal fort, à l’heure où la France et le Royaume-Uni relancent de vastes programmes nucléaires.


L’énergie nucléaire est aujourd’hui présentée comme un pilier de la décarbonation et de la sécurité énergétique européennes. Pourtant, si les arbitrages énergétiques se décident au niveau national, leur acceptabilité se joue souvent à l’échelle locale.

En mars 2011, l’accident nucléaire de Fukushima-Daiichi avait bouleversé la perception mondiale du risque nucléaire. Certains pays avaient alors réaffirmé leur engagement, comme le Royaume-Uni ou la France, qui a récemment replacé le nucléaire au cœur de la programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE). D’autres, comme l’Allemagne, avaient mis leurs programmes en pause ou fait marche arrière.




À lire aussi :
Three Mile Island, Tchernobyl, Fukushima : le rôle des accidents dans la gouvernance nucléaire


Entre la construction de nouveaux réacteurs pressurisés européens (EPR) – la PPE française prévoit la construction de six nouveaux réacteurs EPR2, avec huit en option – et l’émergence de nouveaux concepts comme les petits réacteurs modulaires (Small Modular Reactors, ou SMR), la dynamique actuelle est celle d’un regain des investissements.

Mais au-delà des choix technologiques et politiques, un facteur demeure déterminant pour l’avenir de l’industrie : l’acceptation du public. Nous avons mené une étude portant sur l’évolution des marchés immobiliers et la composition socio-économique des quartiers en Angleterre après l’accident de Fukushima.

Nos travaux montrent comment la perception d’un risque accru peut transformer les communautés vivant à proximité des centrales. À la clé, vague de départ des ménages, baisse des prix immobiliers et accroissement de la pauvreté, et cela au Royaume-Uni, pays où l’énergie nucléaire bénéficie d’un fort soutien au niveau national.

SMR ou EPR, le même défi de l’acceptation locale

Parmi les nouvelles options technologiques, les SMR suscitent un intérêt croissant. Conçus en usine, transportés puis assemblés sur site, ces réacteurs de petite taille (d’une puissance pouvant aller jusqu’à 300 mégawatts) promettent des chantiers plus rapides et des coûts mieux maîtrisés.

Nécessitant moins de foncier et d’eau, ils peuvent être implantés sur des sites plus variés, au plus près des besoins en électricité et en chaleur. Ils pourraient par exemple remplacer les centrales à charbon ou à gaz en fin de vie en réutilisant les raccordements existants au réseau, tout en préservant les emplois qualifiés et les recettes fiscales locales, ce qui favoriserait leur acceptation politique.

Plus de 80 modèles de SMR sont aujourd’hui en cours de développement dans 18 pays. La Russie et la Chine en ont déjà construit, tandis que les États-Unis, le Royaume-Uni, le Canada, la France, le Japon et la Corée du Sud mènent des projets pilotes. Le Royaume-Uni, notamment, mise sur les SMR pour accroître son parc d’ici 2050, en complément de ses chantiers EPR, comme Hinkley Point C et Sizewell C.

La centrale nucléaire de Sizewell, au Royaume-Uni, comprend plusieurs tranches : une à l’arrêt définitif, une en exploitation et enfin une troisième en cours de construction avec deux EPR.
Ivor Branton, CC BY-NC-ND

En France, malgré un fort soutien institutionnel au nucléaire, rien ne garantit que le nucléaire connaîtra un rebond sans accroc après 2035, et ce, pour trois raisons principales.

  • Premièrement, la plupart des nouveaux EPR2 et SMR ne seront pas opérationnels avant les années 2030, une projection encore fragilisée par l’historique de l’industrie en matière de retards. L’exemple de l’EPR de Flamanville (Manche), lancé en 2007 et raccordé au réseau seulement en 2024, reste éloquent.

  • Deuxièmement, la gestion des déchets reste un défi non résolu. Des travaux récents suggèrent même que plusieurs modèles de SMR produiraient davantage de déchets radioactifs par unité d’énergie que les grandes centrales, ce qui pourrait alourdir leur coût réel.

  • Enfin, et surtout, les porteurs de projets devront obtenir l’adhésion des communautés locales s’ils souhaitent s’implanter dans de nouveaux territoires.

Les enquêtes d’opinion post-Fukushima montrent un soutien national très variable d’un pays à l’autre, et que cette énergie est rarement la source préférée d’électricité.

Surtout, une attitude favorable au niveau national ne garantit pas son acceptation au niveau local. La logique du « not in my backyard » (« pas dans mon arrière-cour ») peut bloquer des projets pourtant viables au plan économique. C’est particulièrement vrai lorsque les risques sont perçus comme très concentrés, tandis que les bénéfices semblent largement diffus.




À lire aussi :
Réacteurs nucléaires « SMR » : de quoi s’agit-il ? Sont-ils moins risqués ?


La perception du risque nucléaire après Fukushima : le cas anglais

Notre étude a analysé comment ces changements de perception du risque nucléaire se traduisaient concrètement et s’inscrivaient dans une dynamique plus large de l’évolution des populations autour des sites nucléaires au fil des décennies.

À partir d’un registre exhaustif des transactions immobilières en Angleterre de 2007 à 2014, nous avons comparé l’évolution des prix dans un rayon de 20 km autour des centrales nucléaires à celle observée entre 20 et 100 km, avant et après Fukushima.

Le seuil des 20 km correspond à la distance de sécurité massivement relayée par les médias britanniques à la suite de l’instauration par le gouvernement japonais d’une zone d’évacuation dans un rayon de 20 km autour du site accidenté.

Nos résultats sont clairs. En moyenne, les logements proches des centrales anglaises ont perdu plus de 4 % de leur valeur foncière après Fukushima, par rapport à des biens similaires situés plus loin.

Cette moyenne cache toutefois des disparités importantes. La chute des prix a été nettement plus marquée dans les zones où la main-d’œuvre est très mobile. Cela ne signifie donc pas que la perception du risque nucléaire n’a pas changé dans les zones proches des centrales où la mobilité des ménages est restée limitée, mais plutôt que celle-ci ne s’est pas traduite par un ajustement à court terme des prix de l’immobilier.

Le cas anglais est particulièrement révélateur. Contrairement à l’Allemagne ou au Japon, le Royaume-Uni, comme la France, a maintenu son programme nucléaire après 2011, en engageant un renouvellement du parc. La baisse de l’immobilier y reflète donc bien une véritable crainte environnementale locale, et non l’anticipation d’une fermeture des centrales nucléaires.

Au-delà des prix de l’immobilier, la composition sociale des quartiers a également évolué. Entre 2010 et 2019, la pauvreté s’est accrue autour des sites nucléaires, surtout dans les zones à forte mobilité résidentielle. Ainsi, même dans un cadre de soutien politique fort et de réglementation stricte, un accident lointain a engendré des effets socio-économiques durables sur le territoire britannique.

Bien sûr, les dynamiques passées éclairent aussi ces résultats. Dans les années 1970, lors de la mise en service des centrales étudiées, les zones situées à moins de 20 km avaient déjà connu une première vague de déclin démographique et de précarisation.




À lire aussi :
Quel avenir pour les territoires du nucléaire en France ?


Leçons de politique publique

Si le choix politique actuel est celui d’une expansion durable du nucléaire, il est crucial d’obtenir le consentement local, autant que national, des populations.

Pour les ménages, soutenir la décarbonation ou la souveraineté énergétique à l’échelle d’un pays ne signifie pas accepter un réacteur au bout de sa rue. Il faut engager un dialogue transparent, le plus tôt possible, avec des informations accessibles sur les risques d’accident, les plans d’urgence, les règles de responsabilité et la gestion à long terme des déchets, etc.

Surtout, les communautés exposées à des risques concentrés doivent bénéficier d’avantages concentrés : fonds spécifiques, réductions sur les factures d’énergie, investissements dans les infrastructures, programmes de formation ou encore priorité à la sous-traitance locale. Ces contreparties doivent être mises en place dès la phase de planification et durer tout au long de l’exploitation.

Loin de contourner cet obstacle, les SMR l’accentuent. Leur intérêt premier réside en effet dans leur flexibilité d’implantation géographique. Ainsi, nombre de sites envisagés devraient se situer dans des régions nouvelles pour le nucléaire, où les populations n’ont pas eu le temps de « s’auto-sélectionner » selon leur tolérance au risque nucléaire. De plus, la viabilité économique des SMR exige une production en série et des commandes groupées : un véritable défi organisationnel vu les contraintes de sites et de licences.

Le processus de sélection des sites, l’implication réelle des habitants et l’équité dans la répartition des bénéfices seront donc déterminants. On peut toutefois s’attendre à d’importants ajustements socio-économiques et démographiques à proximité des futurs projets. Sans mécanismes crédibles de partage des bénéfices, l’expansion du nucléaire en Europe pourrait accroître les inégalités territoriales.

The Conversation

Renaud Coulomb déclare ne pas être en situation de conflit d’intérêts. Il ne fournit pas de services de conseil et ne détient aucune participation financière dans des entreprises du secteur énergétique, ni dans des entreprises susceptibles de bénéficier des analyses ou des conclusions présentées dans cette tribune. La recherche citée dans cet article a bénéficié du soutien financier de l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris et de l’Université de Melbourne. Certains des projets de recherche de l’auteur ont pu bénéficier de financements supplémentaires de Mines Paris – PSL University et de la Fondation Mines Paris dans le cadre de la Chaire de Mécénat ENG, en partenariat avec l’Université Paris-Dauphine, la Toulouse School of Economics et CentraleSupélec.

Yanos Zylberberg ne fournit pas de services de conseil et ne détient aucune participation financière dans des entreprises du secteur énergétique, ni dans des entreprises susceptibles de bénéficier des analyses ou des conclusions présentées dans cette tribune. Certains projets de recherche (qui digitalisent des cartes historiques) ont reçu des financements de l’ESRC.

ref. Accepter (ou non) de vivre à proximité d’une centrale nucléaire, une question loin d’être réglée – https://theconversation.com/accepter-ou-non-de-vivre-a-proximite-dune-centrale-nucleaire-une-question-loin-detre-reglee-275150

Demain, le mix électrique français sera-t-il plus « vert » avec ou sans nucléaire ?

Source: The Conversation – in French – By Bertrand Cassoret, Maître de conférences en génie électrique, Université d’Artois

Au-delà de l’enjeu urgent de la transition énergétique, tous les mix électriques ne se valent pas en termes d’impacts environnementaux. Nous avons procédé à l’analyse de cycle de vie des six scénarios proposés par RTE à l’horizon 2060, avec ou sans construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires. Le résultat ? Hors risque d’accident, les scénarios comportant le plus de nucléaire apparaissent comme les moins mauvais pour l’environnement.


Quel mix de production d’électricité décarbonée est le plus écologique ? Répondre à cette question n’est pas si évident. La production d’énergie, à l’échelle d’un pays, ne s’improvise pas : la troisième programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE3), dévoilée en février 2026, a en ce sens fixé un cadre pour les dix prochaines années.

Or, en fonction des choix de planification opérés et du mix électrique retenu (part de nucléaire, de renouvelables…), le kilowatt-heure n’aura pas la même empreinte environnementale. En nous appuyant sur les six scénarios (en fonction des sources d’énergie composant le mix électrique) retenus par RTE à l’horizon 2060, nous avons mené une analyse de cycle de vie (ACV) de chacun de ces scénarios, récemment publiée dans une revue scientifique.

Selon nos résultats, en fonctionnement normal (c’est-à-dire en excluant les risques de catastrophe environnementale, notamment nucléaire), ce sont les scénarios où la part du nucléaire est la plus élevée qui ont les impacts environnementaux les plus faibles. Pour comprendre ce résultat, il faut d’abord présenter sa construction.

Les scénarios de RTE pour la production d’électricité en 2060

Ils sont le premier élément déterminant du raisonnement. Pour prévoir les besoins de production électrique en France en 2060, RTE a pris pour hypothèse une hausse de consommation de 35 %, en lien avec les besoins d’électrification des usages tels que les transports, le chauffage ou l’industrie.

Parmi les six scénarios, les trois premiers (notés M sur le graphe ci-dessous) n’utilisent pas de nouvelles infrastructures nucléaires en remplacement des réacteurs actuels qui seront probablement fermés en 2060. Les trois scénarios suivants (notés N) s’appuient en revanche sur le « nouveau nucléaire », avec une part de nucléaire allant de 18 à 50 % dans le mix électrique. La part de l’hydroélectricité varie peu, mais l’éolien et le photovoltaïque jouent le rôle de variable d’ajustement entre les différents scénarios.

Sur les six scénarios envisagés par RTE à l’horizon 2060, les trois premiers, notés M, ne postulent pas la construction de nouvelles centrales nucléaires pour remplacer les infrastructures actuelles, qui seront en fin de vie. Les trois derniers, notés N, postulent au contraire le renouvellement du parc nucléaire.
Fourni par l’auteur

Pour un même niveau de consommation électrique, les scénarios sans nucléaire nécessitent davantage de puissance installée. Le scénario M1, qui s’appuie le plus sur le photovoltaïque, requiert plus de deux fois plus d’installations que le scénario N03, qui se base surtout sur le nucléaire. Ceci s’explique par deux raisons.

  • D’abord, parce que l’éolien et le photovoltaïque ne sont pas pilotables : leur production dépend de la météo. L’éolien et le photovoltaïque ont, en effet, un facteur de charge assez faible : le vent et le soleil ne permettent que rarement une production à pleine puissance. Par exemple, une installation photovoltaïque de 1 000 watts (W) va produire parfois cette puissance l’été, vers midi, mais en moyenne sur l’année, seulement environ 150 W. Il faut donc démultiplier les moyens.

  • La seconde raison tient au besoin de stockage de cette production intermittente, afin de répondre aux besoins au bon moment. La prospective de RTE considère le stockage par batteries ou par hydrogène, mais les rendements de conversion entraînent, dans les deux cas, des pertes qu’il faut compenser, là aussi en augmentant les capacités installées.

À noter enfin que la fabrication et le recyclage en fin de vie de ces moyens de stockage entraînent des impacts environnementaux supplémentaires.




À lire aussi :
Les panneaux solaires, fer de lance de la transition ou casse-tête pour le recyclage ? Le vrai du faux


Des impacts environnementaux tout au long du cycle de vie

Les moyens de production envisagés par RTE ici sont l’éolien, le photovoltaïque, l’hydroélectrique et le nucléaire. Ils n’émettent pas – ou très peu – de polluants et de gaz à effet de serre lors de leur utilisation, comme en atteste le dernier rapport du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (Giec). Ce dernier considère que l’éolien et le nucléaire émettent environ 12 g de CO₂ par kilowattheure (kWh) électrique produit, tandis que le photovoltaïque en émet entre 41 et 48.

Mais la seule comptabilité carbone ne suffit pas : ces sources d’électricité ont des impacts environnementaux notables liés à leur fabrication et leur fin de vie, dont il faut tenir compte. Des études suggèrent que le photovoltaïque au sol (à distinguer des panneaux solaires qui équipent les toitures) peut nécessiter autant de béton que le nucléaire, à production électrique égale. L’Agence internationale de l’énergie (AIE) soulignait par exemple, en 2022, que les panneaux solaires sont de grands consommateurs d’aluminium. Enfin, toujours à production d’électricité égale, il faut davantage d’acier pour l’électricité éolienne que le nucléaire.

Une synthèse d’études d’impacts réalisée en 2021 pour la Commission européenne suggère que l’énergie nucléaire est celle qui aurait le moins d’impacts environnementaux sur un certain nombre de critères.

Il faut enfin tenir compte de la durée de vie des moyens de production. On considère généralement qu’un barrage hydroélectrique dure quatre-vingts ans, une centrale nucléaire soixante ans (même s’il est probable qu’on ira au-delà), un panneau photovoltaïque trente ans et une éolienne vingt-cinq ans.

Reste aussi la question des déchets nucléaires, qui relève, en France, de l’agence nationale pour la gestion des déchets radioactifs (Andra), et que nous n’avons pas couverte dans notre étude.

Quel scénario est le plus écologique ?

L’analyse de cycle de vie est une méthode qui permet d’évaluer les impacts environnementaux depuis l’extraction des matières premières jusqu’à la fin de vie. Elle utilise des bases de données internationales qui permettent de quantifier les consommations de matières premières, énergie, surfaces, déchets. Nous avons utilisé, pour estimer l’impact environnemental de la production d’un kilowattheure d’électricité nucléaire, hydroélectrique, éolienne et enfin photovoltaïque, le logiciel Simapro, associé à la base de données Ecoinvent qui fait référence dans le domaine de l’ACV

Parmi les 11 critères retenus, on retrouve l’épuisement des ressources, le réchauffement climatique, la diminution de la couche d’ozone, la toxicité pour l’humain, les impacts sur l’eau de mer et l’eau douce, l’oxydation photochimique (en lien avec la pollution de l’air), l’acidification et l’eutrophisation des eaux.

Selon notre ACV, le photovoltaïque est l’énergie qui a le plus d’impacts environnementaux et l’hydroélectrique, celle qui en a le moins. Ces résultats sont largement liés aux quantités de matériaux utilisés et à la durée de vie des installations.

La prise en compte de certains de ces critères environnementaux spécifiques peut modifier ce classement : le nucléaire a davantage d’impacts si on considère les radiations ionisantes et l’eutrophisation marine, l’hydroélectricité nécessite davantage d’eau. Mais même en tenant compte de davantage de critères environnementaux, avec la méthode ReCiPe, qui en comporte 22, le photovoltaïque reste le plus mauvais élève pour 18 de ces critères.

Impacts environnementaux d’une même quantité d’électricité, selon son mode de production.
Fourni par l’auteur

Les impacts des six scénarios de RTE ont été comparés avec deux approches différentes mais complémentaires.

  • D’abord en fonction de l’énergie produite par les quatre sources d’électricité chaque année. À noter qu’avec cette méthode, les impacts de la production du combustible nucléaire et de la gestion des déchets sont inclus dans les bases de données, mais que les moyens de stockage de l’électricité sont ici négligés, ce qui sous-estime les impacts des scénarios sans nucléaire.

  • Puis en fonction de la puissance installée, en tenant compte de la durée de vie des installations – en négligeant cette fois les impacts liés au fonctionnement normal des infrastructures. Les impacts du stockage sont, alors, pris en compte.

Les résultats obtenus avec les deux méthodes sont très similaires : le scénario M1, qui s’appuie le plus sur le photovoltaïque, est celui qui a le plus d’impacts environnementaux sur tous les critères considérés. Le scénario qui a le moins d’impacts, à l’inverse, est celui qui compte le plus sur le nucléaire. Même dans le scénario N2, qui compte largement sur le nucléaire, la majorité des impacts environnementaux proviennent du photovoltaïque, alors qu’il ne représente que 16 % du mix électrique.

Impacts environnementaux estimés pour les différents scénarios RTE.
Fourni par l’auteur

Il ne s’agit pas de dire que le photovoltaïque et l’éolien sont inutiles à la transition énergétique : ces sources renouvelables sont très utiles lorsqu’elles permettent d’éviter de produire de l’électricité avec du pétrole, du gaz ou du charbon. L’éolien et le photovoltaïque sont beaucoup moins polluants que ces énergies fossiles, qui n’ont pas été considérées ici.

Elles ont bien un rôle à jouer : RTE estime que le nucléaire et l’hydroélectricité ne permettront pas de produire suffisamment d’électricité pour l’électrification prévue dans le cadre de la Stratégie nationale bas carbone (SNBC). De plus, les technologies évoluent, et il est probable que les impacts du photovoltaïque et de l’éolien diminuent avec le temps.

À l’heure de choisir un mix électrique pour l’avenir qui s’appuie le moins possible sur les énergies fossiles, le nucléaire semble donc incontournable pour un mix le plus vert possible. Ces résultats montrent que plus la part du nucléaire est élevée dans le mix électrique, moins on a besoin d’installations en tous genres – consommateurs de matériaux –, moins on crée d’impacts environnementaux.

Notre étude a toutefois des limites, qui tiennent à ses hypothèses de départ : elle ne prend pas en compte le risque de catastrophe nucléaire. En effet, l’ACV ne considère que le fonctionnement normal des installations, et sa précision dépend de la fiabilité des données inscrites dans les bases de données.

Elle n’intègre pas non plus ni le risque d’explosion d’hydrogène stocké ni le risque de ruptures de barrages hydrauliques qui ont pourtant historiquement tué bien plus que les catastrophes de Tchernobyl et de Fukushima. Il est également supposé que la gestion des déchets nucléaires sera sans conséquences sur les générations futures.

The Conversation

Bertrand Cassoret est membre bénévole de l’Association Française pour l’Information Scientifique et de la Société Française d’Energie Nucléaire.

ref. Demain, le mix électrique français sera-t-il plus « vert » avec ou sans nucléaire ? – https://theconversation.com/demain-le-mix-electrique-francais-sera-t-il-plus-vert-avec-ou-sans-nucleaire-277288

How biological invasions are silently remodelling ecosystems

Source: The Conversation – France – By Franck Courchamp, Directeur de recherche CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay

Many of the most damaging invasions do not simply subtract species; they fundamentally remodel the environment, altering habitats, rewiring interactions, and shifting processes in ways that species lists alone cannot reveal.

Consider the goat, the horse or the deer, introduced to many islands around the world. While their voracious grazing can indeed drive native flora towards local extinction, the legacy is etched deeper into the land.

These invasive herbivores compact the earth, accelerate erosion, open up the undergrowth and modify fire regimes, scarring the landscape long after the herds are gone. These systemic changes threaten biodiversity just as profoundly as the loss of any single species.

To navigate this complexity, invasion scientists have increasingly turned to the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT). This pioneering framework marked a significant leap forward, offering a transparent, evidence-based method to rank “invaders” by the severity of their toll on native species, from negligible effects to local extinctions.

However, EICAT operates with a specific blind spot: it is strictly species-orientated. It assigns a single global severity score to an invader, usually based on the worst-case scenario recorded in its invasive ranges. While powerful for global prioritisation, this approach can overlook the complexities in specific, local ecosystems, each with unique vulnerabilities. As a recent study published in PLOS biology illustrates, there is cause for further investigation.

The invisible architecture of invasions

In addition, biological invasions generate a spectrum of impacts extending far beyond direct effects on native species seen in typical assessments. In our recent synthesis published in 2025, we catalogued 19 distinct types of environmental impacts.

When examining all of the well-documented impacts, it became obvious that most structural changes operate at the level of communities, ecosystems or physical processes.

Crucially, twelve of these categories concern scales broader than the actual species: nutrient cycling, habitat structure, or the physical properties of soil and water, for instance whose impacts are therefore underestimated.

Three distinctive levels of structural changes can be distinguished:

Nutria are a species renown for its ecosystem engineering skills.
Max Saeling

Despite being widespread and well documented, these structural changes remain largely unclassified by frameworks that focus ultimately on native species loss.

This omission is critical because many invasive species act as “ecosystem engineers”, organisms that do not merely live in an environment but actively modify it, influencing the fate of entire communities.

To capture this nuance, from our recent research we developed a complementary assessment tool: EEICAT, the Extended Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa.

From the invader to the invasion

EEICAT is not a replacement but an evolution. It brings a necessary expansion in impact assessments, while seeking simplicity and integration. It is based on EICAT, but it shifts the unit of assessment from the invasive species to the invasion event. Under this framework, all 19 impact types can now be considered and an invasive population can be assigned one or multiple severity categories, at any ecological level. Under EEICAT, the loose threads of evidence from multiple impacts can now be woven to reflect the unique tapestry of effects on native species, communities, processes, and even abiotic conditions.

The necessity of this distinction is vivid in aquatic systems invaded by zebra mussels (Dreissena spp.). In too many lakes, these molluscs threaten native mussel populations through competition and biofouling, a classic impact well captured by standard assessments. Yet, simultaneously, they are transforming the environment itself: filtering water, lowering turbidity, altering nutrient cycles, and triggering cascading shifts in vegetation and food webs. EEICAT allows us to map both the direct blow to native biodiversity and the systemic reengineering of the lake, within a single framework.

Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) attached to native mussels.

A similar logic applies to the terrestrial realm. The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) is notorious for displacing native ants, simplifying communities into ghost towns, devoid of the usually numerous native ant species. But its influence ripples further. By disrupting mutualisms between plants and insects, these invaders alter seed dispersal, pollination, invertebrate assemblages, and even soil processes. These indirect, community-level impacts often differ in severity across invasion events, depending on climate, habitat integrity and recipient ecosystems. You can therefore assess several impacts per invasion, and characterise the specificities of each invasion: with a case-based approach.

invasive ant supercolony or ants tending aphids.
Alexander Wild (reuse prohibited without authorisation)

Context is everything

The plant kingdom offers some of the clearest arguments for an event-based approach. Acacia species, introduced globally, act as ecological chameleons. In South Africa, they are aggressive suppressors of native flora, or “fynbos”, and transformers of soil chemistry through nitrogen enrichment.

In Mediterranean Europe, the same Acacia dealbata species, commonly known as mimosa, may exert moderate competitive pressure but still alter fire regimes, litter accumulation and hydrology.

EEICAT provides a straightforward way to document these contrasts, where all evidence counts in helping to assess the severity of each particular invasion.

Reinterpreting the ecological history of biological invasions

Importantly, adopting EEICAT does not mean starting from scratch. We can leverage decades of existing impact studies, and even previous EICAT impact assessments could be adapted. The framework simply translates qualitative ecological evidence into a broader set of categories that span biological, community, and abiotic levels. It even uses the same five levels of severity, from “minimal concern” to “massive concern”, with the same guiding decision rules. This compatibility allows us to reinterpret the history of invasion ecology through a wider lens.

Because EEICAT is case-specific, it enables us to track how a single species behaves differently across regions, or how multiple invaders compound pressure on a single ecosystem. It reveals patterns of cumulative stress and ecosystem vulnerability that global scores simply cannot articulate.

Biological invasions are not merely about losing species; they are also about the silent rewriting of ecosystems. From the chemistry of the soil to the rhythms of wildfires, their impacts ripple through the environment long after their arrival. By embracing the Extended EICAT framework, we can finally capture the full scope of how invasive species really impact ecosystems, and tailor management strategies to the complex realities of the living world, with each invasion, one by one.


Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund – now part of the Axa Foundation for Human Progress – has supported over 700 projects around the world with researchers from 38 countries on key environmental, health & socioeconomic risks, like this project led by Franck Courchamp. To learn more, visit the website of the AXA Research Fund or follow @ AXAResearchFund on LinkedIn.

The Conversation

Franck Courchamp received funding from The AXA Research Fund.

Laís Carneiro received funding from AXA Research Fund.

ref. How biological invasions are silently remodelling ecosystems – https://theconversation.com/how-biological-invasions-are-silently-remodelling-ecosystems-277703

China’s new tariff-free regime for Africa: the potential upside and downside

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

China’s President Xi Jinping announced in February 2026 that from 1 May China would be granting zero-tariff treatment to 53 African countries. (That is all of them bar Eswatini, which supports Taiwan.)

China-Africa trade reached US$348 billion in 2025, up 17.7% from 2024. Chinese exports to Africa dominate trade flows, and amounted to US$225 billion, an increase of 25.8%. This compares to US$123 billion in imports from Africa, which grew by just 5.4%. Such a rising trade deficit between Africa and its largest sovereign trade partner points to the timeliness of new China policies that support African exports to China.

Beyond potential for trade facilitation and diplomacy, at a time of trade rivalry between the great powers, what might the change mean?

Based on years of study of China-Africa trade relations, I argue that there will be two probable main effects – one positive, one negative.

First, on the positive side, zero tariffs could provide incentives for cross-country export cooperation within Africa. On the negative, it risks creating conditions in which Africa’s stronger economies capture the most gain at the expense of weaker economies.

The existing regime

China’s Africa-specific trade preferences have evolved through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, established in 2000. China’s own global trade integration since its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 has also evolved.

Since 2005, African least developed countries have enjoyed zero-tariff access to China across 100% of tariff lines. Least developed countries are low-income countries confronting severe structural impediments to sustainable development. They are highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks and have low levels of human capital.

This policy restricted zero-tariff trade access to around 33 countries (subject to change owing to income growth and diplomatic recognition of Beijing). Africa’s middle-income exporters were excluded from the trade preferences.

South Africa, for example, continued to face tariffs on most exports, including fruits, wine and processed foods. Many were between 10% and 25%.

A handful of research papers have explored earlier Chinese trade preferences for Africa. For example, policy researcher and economist Adam Minson estimated that the least developed country tariff-free arrangements of 2005 would bring some countries as little as an additional US$100,000 annually.

My own PhD research found that by 2009 these preferential trade policies had not had any significant impact on exports. More recently, economists Zhina Sun and Ehizuelen Michael Mitchell Omoruyi found that the existing zero-tariff policy had promoted diversification of manufacturing exports to China and of regional trade. But there had been little effect on agriculture and mining export diversification.

One recurring recommendation has been to expand equal tariff treatment across African regional blocs. These include the East African Community, Southern African Customs Union and the Economic Community of West African States.

This could lead to production for export being organised regionally rather than distorted or even hampered by tariff differentials.

The reforms announced by Xi in February are a shift in this direction.

An incentive to co-operate?

By extending zero tariffs to almost all African countries, China has neutralised an element of distortion in its earlier tariff policy. When only some countries enjoyed tariff-free export benefits, investors and producers had incentives to locate export production in least developed countries to secure tariff-free access.

This worked some of the time, but not all the time. The reason for this is that least developed countries find it difficult to become exporters because they face inhibiting barriers to trade in general. Examples include unreliable electricity and poor infrastructure.

The zero tariff will put least developed countries at a disadvantage as they will lose the “special status” afforded them in the old regime. But the change could open another door. Production decisions can now take advantage of existing and potential cross-country and intra-regional supply chains based on comparative advantage – in place of being located where export tariffs were smallest.

Also, lowering tariffs for more developed African economies may enable African entrepreneurs to work across borders to engage in trade without facing different trade barriers by locality. That in turn may support Africa’s own agenda of trade integration.

To boost trade, China has also signalled it will expand trade facilitation measures. This includes upgraded “green lanes” for African imports. Prospective examples include:

  • faster customs clearance

  • streamlined phytosanitary procedures (rules governing food safety). An example would be setting up a clear set of criteria that enable an approved exporter, say of Kenyan avocados, to enjoy pre-approval for customs clearance.

  • greater investments in training and trade-related logistics.

China has also set up a dedicated China-Africa trade facilitation hub in Changsha, the capital of Hunan province. The aim is to have a central point of trade-related expertise and industries, making it easier for African and Chinese firms do business.

The risk of uneven gains

There is a risk that the new tariff regime will mean that production for export will concentrate in more developed countries, such as South Africa, Morocco and Kenya. These economies are better positioned to expand exports when it comes into effect.

In contrast, least developed countries will continue to struggle with:

  • constructing efficient trade-related infrastructure like telecommunications, electricity and port connectivity

  • production at export scale

  • reaching trade-related compliance standards such as the necessary fruit sizes and colour consistency.

China’s policy change calls for Africa’s frontier exporters to China to build trade-related supply chains across African borders to garner the scale and competitiveness to expand their own – soon tariff-free – exports to China. In turn, this would reduce the burden on least developed countries to need to export directly to China. Instead, they would only need to join regional trade supply chains.

Ideally within African sub-regions this could develop into a new incentive to create trade-related value chains.

The potential for equalisation

The May Day tariff reforms are a positive in removing formal tariff barriers at a time when tariffs are going up, led by the United States. This change simplifies incentives and eliminates structural asymmetries in China’s Africa trade regime.

Tariffs, however, are seldom the main constraint for African industrial transformation and export hopes. On top of this, uncertainty is complicating the global trade environment.

Nonetheless, these reforms are a step towards fostering sub-regional supply chains if African countries coordinate production strategies.

The Conversation

Lauren Johnston is affiliated with the AustChina Institute and South African Institute of International Affairs.

ref. China’s new tariff-free regime for Africa: the potential upside and downside – https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-tariff-free-regime-for-africa-the-potential-upside-and-downside-277247

Cracking the code: How a “prediction machine” is resurrecting the Singapore Stone

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Francesco Perono Cacciafoco, Associate Professor in Linguistics, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University

Singapore Stone wikipedia.org, CC BY

Several years ago, my linguistic research team and I began developing a computational tool we call ‘Read-y Grammarian’. Our goal was to reconstruct the highly fragmentary text of the Singapore Stone, a relic from the 10th to 14th centuries that features an undeciphered script similar to Kawi.

The software uses a specialised algorithm that applies digital philology (the study of oral and written texts) and epigraphy (the study of written matter recorded on hard or durable material) techniques to analyse ancient inscriptions.

We faced several setbacks while developing ‘Read-y Grammarian’ over the years. However, thanks to our persistence, the system is finally complete and fully operational.

Originally implemented for the Singapore Stone, ‘Read-y Grammarian’ can be used to reconstruct any fragmentary text. Its adaptive framework allows it to restore a wide array of damaged historical records — including manuscripts and papyri — with a few simple adjustments.

This flexibility makes the tool a powerful new ally for researchers looking to piece together the missing fragments of human history.




Baca juga:
The Singapore Stone’s carvings have been undeciphered for centuries – now we’re trying to crack the puzzle


About the Stone

First recorded by the British in 1819 at the Singapore River’s mouth, the sandstone monolith was later demolished in 1843 to clear space for building projects. The roughly three-metre-square slab was largely destroyed, leaving only three surviving fragments.

After researchers sent those fragments to the Royal Asiatic Society’s Museum in Calcutta for study, their trail went cold. Their fate remained undocumented for decades until 1918, when — as far as records show — the institution returned only a single piece to what was then the Raffles Museum of Singapore.

Drawings of the fragments of the Singapore Stone
Singapore Stone’s fragments.
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/histories, CC BY

The Stone originally bore an inscription spanning roughly 50 lines, but its full text has been lost. All that remains are a handful of rough sketches made before its destruction, along with copies of the three fragments recovered after 1843 and the single original fragment that still exists.

The inscription remains a major puzzle. Its script resembles regional writing systems like the Javanese Kawi, but actually it doesn’t match any known writing system found on Earth.

Because no one has been able to read the Stone yet, it remains undeciphered.

The monument’s turbulent history, coupled with the complex and unique nature of its script, has fuelled its myth over the centuries. This has turned the artefact into one of the most intriguing challenges for scholars.

Alongside legendary puzzles like the Phaistos Disc and Linear A, the Singapore Stone remains one of History’s great unsolved codes.

Some link it to the legendary strongman Badang and the sprawling Majapahit Empire. Yet, until the conundrum is cracked, all connections — including those with ancient India or Java’s influence — remain speculative.

Decoding the void

Among other computational methods, ‘Read-y Grammarian’ works by digitising the inscription and assigning a unique alphanumeric (composed of both letters and numerals) code to every attested character. By tracking the exact position and line of every symbol, the algorithm identifies gaps in the text and reconstructs the likely original layout line by line.

It then applies frequency analysis and statistical and mathematical calculations — based on the linguistic patterns found in human languages — to predict which characters may have filled the missing spaces. This way, ‘Read-y Grammarian’ acts like a ‘prediction machine’, analysing the text step by step and converting its alphanumeric outputs back into actual characters.

We can also adjust specific settings in the system. For example, we can tweak the syntax (grammar rules and word order) of a reference language or language family — such asJavanese or Austronesian — or adjust the related morphology (the internal structure of words and how they are formed).

The algorithm then generates different possible versions of the text and our research team reviews these versions to determine which ones make the most sense linguistically.

This approach allows us to map phonemes (distinct units of sound that distinguish one word from another) to every character in the text, helping us identify possible words. It significantly streamlines the comparative process, letting scholars test the script against a variety of candidate languages to find a possible match.

Sample of the restoration of two Singapore Stone's characters
An example of Singapore Stone’s character restoration.
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/information, CC BY

What we know so far

Our ultimate goal is to solve the mystery of the elusive inscription. A text can be considered truly deciphered only when it can be read and understood in full.

Identifying an exact language will take time. However, we have already reached an important breakthrough: after centuries of silence, we have reconstructed several plausible versions of a complete text. This is a significant achievement, because the monolith itself was almost entirely destroyed. Reconstructing the original inscription would have been impossible without our custom algorithm.

Moreover, we are currently developing a more sophisticated model to expand the capabilities of ‘Read-y Grammarian’. The upgrade will allow us to generate systematic transcriptions at a much faster rate and in greater numbers. It will also incorporate advanced features, such as elements of historical phonology (the study of how sound systems change and evolve over time), to further refine the results.

A work in progress

Deciphering the Singapore Stone has proven extremely difficult, primarily because so little of the inscription survives. The fragments are too small to support reliable frequency analysis — assessing how often specific symbols appear in a text — or statistical studies.

Yet, pattern-recognition methods are the core tools of cryptanalysis (the art of cracking codes and ciphers), and they require far more data than the highly damaged epigraph can currently provide.

To break the deadlock, we must first focus on consistently reconstructing the full inscription. By restoring the text piece by piece and line by line, we can finally view the result as a complete composition.

Though this is not the same as actually reading the inscription, rebuilding the Stone’s original contents gives us the foundation we need to analyse the structure of its text.

Before we can interpret and decipher its fragmentary remains, this crucial first step will pave the way for decoding its writing system and finally identifying the unknown language hidden within.

The Conversation

Francesco Perono Cacciafoco received funding from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU): SURF Grant “Unveiling the Secrets of the Singapore Stone: A Digital Philology Investigation” – Grant Number: SURF-2025-0032, School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HSS), Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), Suzhou (Jiangsu), China, 2025.

ref. Cracking the code: How a “prediction machine” is resurrecting the Singapore Stone – https://theconversation.com/cracking-the-code-how-a-prediction-machine-is-resurrecting-the-singapore-stone-276642

¿Cómo puede percibir una persona ciega si es de día o de noche si no ve la luz?

Source: The Conversation – (in Spanish) – By Elena Vecino Cordero, Catedrática de Biología Celular (UPV/EHU), Licenciada en Bellas Artes, Life Member Clare Hall Cambridge (UK). Directora del Grupo Oftalmo-Biología Experimental (GOBE), Universidad del País Vasco / Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

Mangza2029/Shutterstock

¿Por qué las personas ciegas, cuando no detectan la luz, son capaces de saber si es de día o de noche? El quid de la cuestión está en las llamadas células ganglionares de la retina (RGC, por sus siglas en inglés), un tipo de neuronas especializadas de las que se han descrito más de 25 variedades. Estas células nerviosas se encargan de llevar la información captada por los fotorreceptores –los famosos conos y bastones– desde nuestros ojos al cerebro, donde es procesada por los centros específicamente dedicados a la visión.

Dibujo simplificado de un ojo y neuronas de la retina. Solamente se han dibujado las células implicadas en la recepción de la luz: los fotorreceptores (conos, en rojo, verde y azul, y bastones, en gris), un tipo de neuronas que actúan como conexión (en rosa) entre los fotorreceptores y los distintos tipos de RGC, marcadas en distintos colores. Las prolongaciones de estas células nerviosas, los axones, forman el nervio óptico.
Elaborado por las autoras

Aunque en realidad, para responder con precisión a la pregunta nos tenemos que fijar en un pequeño grupo muy especial de células ganglionares de la retina. Denominadas “intrínsecamente fotosensibles” (ipRGC), son neuronas capaces de formar su propio pigmento fotosensible: la melanopsina. Esta sustancia les permite detectar directamente la luz, con independencia de los conos y bastones, y enviar el mensaje a la región del cerebro que gobierna los ritmos circadianos, el reloj biológico interno que nos indica cuándo es de día o de noche. Hace poco se ha descubierto que las ipRGC también controlan funciones como el ritmo sueño-vigilia y la temperatura corporal.

Lo más sorprendente es que este subtipo de neuronas sigue funcionando y captando luz aunque las personas sean ciegas debido a distintas patologías: bien porque tengan los fotorreceptores dañados, como sucede en la retinosis pigmentaria; o porque parte de sus neuronas ganglionares hayan muerto debido al aumento de la presión intraocular, como sucede en el glaucoma, la primera causa de ceguera irreversible en el mundo.

Neurona melanopsínica teñida con inmunofluorescencia.
Neurona melanopsínica teñida con inmunofluorescencia.

No todas las neuronas de la retina dejan de funcionar a la vez

La especialización de nuestras neuronas visuales también explica que no todas respondan al daño de la misma manera. Así, las células ganglionares que poseen melanopsina son las más resistentes en enfermedades como el citado glaucoma.

En esta patología, las RGC mueren de forma progresiva, comenzando por las que están situadas en la periferia. Y aquí está el gran problema: la pérdida de visión periférica suele pasar desapercibida hasta que no alcanza la región central, y cuando esto ocurre, ya es tarde. Por eso al glaucoma se le conoce como la “ceguera silenciosa”.

Y además de silenciosa es irreversible, porque las neuronas que dejan de funcionar no pueden regenerarse ni sustituirse. De ahí la importancia de identificar las características de las células ganglionares mas sensibles, para intentar protegerlas antes de que mueran y el daño sea irreparable.

Esquema de las proyecciones de las distintas neuronas de la retina en el cerebro de un roedor. Algunas neuronas se conectan con zonas que procesan el mensaje visual y otras lo hacen con áreas responsables de los ritmos circadianos, como el núcleo supraquiasmático.
Elaborado por las autoras

En humanos es muy difícil determinar qué subtipos de neuronas ganglionares están afectadas y cuáles son resistentes, aunque se han intentado aproximaciones mediante pruebas que utilizan luces de distinta longitud de onda, como el llamado test azul-amarillo. Si bien la tecnología de tomografía de coherencia óptica (OCT) permite desde hace poco visualizar las capas de la retina con gran precisión, tampoco hace esas distinciones con certeza. Por ello, son necesarios los modelos animales de glaucoma, donde podemos analizar en cada estadio de la enfermedad qué neuronas sobreviven utilizando marcadores moleculares.

De esta manera, nuestro grupo de investigación acaba de identificar que las células ganglionares con melanopsina son las más resistentes en estadios iniciales de la enfermedad en ratas. Sabemos que esto sucede también en pacientes humanos, puesto que, como hemos dicho anteriormente, son capaces de saber si es de día o de noche a pesar de padecer ceguera.

Por el contrario, las primeras neuronas en sucumbir cuando aumenta la presión intraocular son las que responden a movimientos en una dirección específica, situadas en la periferia. Este patrón de degeneración es similar al observado en personas con glaucoma.

Saber las características que hacen especialmente vulnerables a algunas neuronas y no a otras puede ayudar a diseñar nuevas estrategias terapéuticas frente al glaucoma, una enfermedad neurodegenerativa que sigue siendo una de las principales causas de ceguera en el mundo.

The Conversation

Elena Vecino Cordero no recibe salario, ni ejerce labores de consultoría, ni posee acciones, ni recibe financiación de ninguna compañía u organización que pueda obtener beneficio de este artículo, y ha declarado carecer de vínculos relevantes más allá del cargo académico citado. La investigación presentada en el artículo ha sido financiada con fondos del Gobierno Vasco Grupos Consolidados (IT1510-22), Ministerio Ciencia Innovación y Universidades MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.

Noelia Ruzafa Andrés recibe fondos de Fundación Jesús de Gangoiti Barrera.

ref. ¿Cómo puede percibir una persona ciega si es de día o de noche si no ve la luz? – https://theconversation.com/como-puede-percibir-una-persona-ciega-si-es-de-dia-o-de-noche-si-no-ve-la-luz-277149