De la dépendance à la refondation : l’aide internationale à l’heure du basculement

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Pierre Micheletti, Responsable du diplôme «Santé — Solidarité — Précarité» à la Faculté de médecine de Grenoble, Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)

Depuis la réélection de Donald Trump, plus de 200 millions de personnes dans le monde se trouvent en situation de vulnérabilité. Les États-Unis étaient jusqu’alors les principaux contributeurs financiers d’organisations internationales. Mais, dès son retour à la Maison-Blanche, le président a opéré un retrait financier massif, laissant de nombreuses ONG, agences humanitaires des Nations unies ou encore la Croix-Rouge en grande difficulté.

Dans son ouvrage Action humanitaire : le crépuscule des dieux ?, qui vient de paraître aux éditions Un monde nouveau, Pierre Micheletti, membre du Conseil d’administration de SOS Méditerranée et président d’honneur d’Action contre la faim, analyse les mécanismes qui ont conduit à cette situation et propose une nouvelle organisation de l’aide humanitaire.


L’interruption brusque des financements octroyés par le gouvernement des États-Unis d’Amérique aux acteurs humanitaires sidère l’ensemble des organisations effectrices de cette forme de solidarité internationale. Le mouvement international de la Croix-Rouge, les organisations onusiennes, les organisations non gouvernementales internationales (ONGI) calculent déjà comment les restrictions annoncées vont impacter leurs actions sur le terrain. Avec les conséquences sociales que tous les dirigeants ont en tête.

Il s’est aussitôt engagé un sauve-qui-peut entre ces trois grandes familles d’acteurs humanitaires pour protéger leurs programmes et les personnes qu’elles soutiennent, en même temps que l’avenir de leurs employés dans les sièges des différentes organisations comme dans les pays où elles interviennent.

Ce séisme est la conséquence extrême d’un système de financement qui concentrait sur quelques pays occidentaux le versement de la quasi-totalité des sommes engagées chaque année. Les États-Unis constituant, avant leur retrait, et devant l’Union européenne, le premier financeur mondial de l’aide d’urgence. Le désengagement du premier contributeur est pourtant survenu sur un modèle économique de l’aide humanitaire dont on constatait les imperfections et les faiblesses depuis plusieurs années. Le « Sommet de Paris pour un nouveau pacte financier mondial » avait ainsi été l’occasion d’une prise de parole conjointe des dirigeants de différentes familles d’acteurs humanitaires, pour pointer les incontournables évolutions nécessaires. Une étape supplémentaire a été franchie en 2025 qui constitue un point de rupture.

Dénoncer les conséquences humaines de l’effondrement financier du modèle qui prévalait jusqu’à début 2025, analyser les mécanismes qui se cumulent de longue date et ont rendu possibles les désastreuses conséquences à venir, et imaginer comment résister et refonder un dispositif d’aide internationale d’urgence, pointent d’emblée un « inconscient collectif » qu’il convient de remettre en cause : l’Occident ne peut ni revendiquer ni assumer le monopole de la compassion à l’égard des malheurs du monde.

La capacité financière pour alimenter la solidarité internationale, comme les stratégies et acteurs pouvant apporter un soutien vital à des populations confrontées à des crises majeures, ne peuvent relever du mandat d’une partie réduite de l’humanité dans un monde aujourd’hui globalisé.

Le concept d’Occident – qui fait débat – est parfois l’objet de manipulations de ceux qui veulent réaffirmer la primauté du fait culturel sur toute autre considération, pour décrire les espaces composites qui structurent la société internationale mondiale. Le terme « Occident » est utilisé dans le présent ouvrage non pas comme une construction identitaire, mais comme une aire géographique évolutive, fruit d’une coopération politique, économique, juridique et militaire de différents pays, dans les suites de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale.

Dans le cas des États-Unis, cette distinction est d’autant plus cruciale que l’abandon de l’aide humanitaire s’accompagne précisément, de la part des nouveaux dirigeants de ce pays, d’un discours qui réaffirme (entre autres) la dimension d’une « culture » partagée comme nécessaire carburant de la solidarité. Ce dont témoigne l’émergence du concept de « diplomatie chrétienne » dans l’administration du président Trump. Pour éviter tout débat ou polémique le nécessaire « décentrement » évoqué par l’historienne et politiste Sophie Bessis fait, dans les pages à suivre une référence au pas de côté, désormais impératif, pour répondre aux urgences humanitaires. Un décentrement par rapport au groupe restreint des 20 gouvernements donateurs primordiaux qui composaient jusqu’ici le club restreint des financeurs.

Le parti-pris développé, et qui sert pour une large part aux analyses et propositions qui en découlent, est que le modèle économique met en chiffres la réalité tangible des logiques politiques que l’on peut attribuer au mode de financement. Ses pays sources, ses modalités de répartition et de mise en œuvre, les choix d’attribution par les donateurs, sont porteurs de sens et d’intérêts géopolitiques de la part des financeurs.

L’effondrement des budgets de début 2025, via le retrait des États-Unis comme premier financeur de l’aide humanitaire mondiale, constitue l’une des composantes (minoritaire en volume) d’un dispositif plus large d’aide publique au développement (APD) également impacté par le retrait des États-Unis via la disparition de son agence de développement, l’US Aid (United States Agency for International Development).

La dynamique ayant présidé à l’émergence du concept d’APD obéit à des logiques historiques dont la connaissance est indispensable à la compréhension du modèle dominant de la solidarité internationale. Dominant au sens non d’une dictature imposée, mais de l’imprégnation par les logiques qui ont présidé à la construction de cette aire que constitue les pays occidentaux depuis 1945.

La structuration du multilatéralisme propre à l’action humanitaire vient de se fracturer. Depuis la fin de la deuxième guerre mondiale, on a assisté à l’évolution d’un ordre international en mutation permanente, sans que cela ne débouche sur de significatives évolutions du modèle économique de la solidarité internationale. Les années 2020 ont donné lieu à des moments de rupture dont le séisme financier de début 2025 constitue le dernier symptôme en date, esquissant les contours d’une dépression aux multiples facettes.

C’est dans l’analyse des facteurs de causalité de la crise financière, avec les conséquences désastreuses de la situation actuelle pour les populations abandonnées à leur sort, que l’on peut dégager des pistes pour rebondir et relancer un système que l’on peut espérer améliorer.

Un système mieux protégé des enjeux de rivalités politiques qui structurent et pénalisent le mode de solidarité internationale qui prévalait jusqu’au désengagement de son mentor historique.

Il s’agit à la fois de résoudre l’équation financière, mais aussi d’imaginer et de mettre en place la gouvernance d’un modèle pérenne à inventer. Autrement dit, de rebattre les cartes des rivalités politiques et des rapports de force qui réémergent entre pays, pour réaffirmer une volonté partagée d’agir de concert, face aux urgences humanitaires majeures d’aujourd’hui et de demain.

C’est ainsi l’émergence d’une nouvelle forme du multilatéralisme, y compris des sociétés civiles, qui se pose. Un multilatéralisme qui devra tenir compte du large refus d’un schéma de solidarité internationale calqué sur les objectifs et modalités de l’entraide mutuelle mise en place, par une partie des vainqueurs, après la victoire sur le nazisme.

Il s’agit, chemin faisant, de prendre acte de l’évolution du concept de « frontières » dont s’affranchissent des phénomènes mondiaux tels que les dégradations environnementales ou l’émergence de nouvelles pathologies infectieuses. De réaffirmer, comme ciment du vivre-ensemble, l’impérative commune volonté de protéger de ce qu’il est désormais convenu d’appeler les « biens publics mondiaux », dont la paix. Dans cette nouvelle conception des relations internationales, la solidarité ne relève pas d’une compassion basée sur une asymétrie de moyens, mais sur la conscience d’un destin partagé de la communauté humaine.

The Conversation

Pierre Micheletti ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. De la dépendance à la refondation : l’aide internationale à l’heure du basculement – https://theconversation.com/de-la-dependance-a-la-refondation-laide-internationale-a-lheure-du-basculement-280081

Le chiisme, facteur majeur de la résilience du régime iranien

Source: The Conversation – France in French (3) – By Pierre Firode, Professeur agrégé de géographie, membre du laboratoire Médiations (Sorbonne Université), Sorbonne Université; Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ) – Université Paris-Saclay

Après avoir subi plus d’un mois de bombardements qui ont détruit une grande partie de ses capacités et tué plusieurs de ses leaders de premier plan, le régime iranien, loin de s’effondrer, a affiché une résilience inattendue. Celle-ci est enracinée dans une idéologie puissante : le chiisme voue un culte à ses martyrs tandis que le khomeinisme y ajoute un discours anti-impérialiste porteur auprès d’une partie non négligeable de la population mondiale, y compris dans les pays occidentaux.


À l’évidence, l’évolution de la guerre lancée par Donald Trump et Benyamin Nétanyahou en Iran, qui vient – temporairement ? – de s’interrompre à la suite de l’annonce d’un cessez-le-feu le 7 avril, après trente-huit jours de bombardements, n’a pas correspondu aux plans initiaux des états-majors israélien et états-unien. Alors que Wahsington et Tel-Aviv avaient parié sur un effondrement rapide du régime une fois éliminés plusieurs de ses principaux dirigeants, l’intensité de l’effort de guerre iranien et, surtout, sa capacité à durer dans le temps ont surpris.

De nombreux experts ont bien souligné à quel point les États-Unis n’avaient pas anticipé la résilience du Corps des gardiens de la révolution, dont le maillage très étroit et décentralisé s’étend sur l’ensemble du territoire iranien, si bien que les coups portés au sommet du régime n’ont pas semblé affecter sa capacité à lutter dans les 31 provinces qui composent la République islamique d’Iran. De plus, les observateurs ont abondamment mis en avant la maîtrise par Téhéran d’un nouvel art de la guerre asymétrique qui s’est décliné à l’échelle mondiale, l’Iran ayant pris en otage l’économie mondiale en exploitant au maximum sa capacité de nuisance sur le détroit d’Ormuz et en imposant à ses voisins une stratégie du chaos face à laquelle l’administration américaine est apparue démunie.

Toutefois, ces analyses mettent peut-être de côté l’un des aspects les plus évidents de cette résilience du régime iranien, qui tient à son idéologie religieuse, le chiisme duodécimain, et à son extension politique depuis 1979, le khomeinisme.

En effet, par son culte des martyrs, par sa vision eschatologique de l’histoire et par son aspiration révolutionnaire à libérer le Moyen-Orient, voire le monde entier, de l’impérialisme hégémonique des États-Unis, l’idéologie du régime iranien fournit un dogme à la fois parfaitement adapté à la nature asymétrique de la guerre actuelle et capable de rallier à lui une partie non négligeable de la population mondiale, malgré l’incroyable barbarie dont font preuve ses dirigeants.

Le chiisme, une doctrine née d’un combat asymétrique

Parce qu’il repose sur la mémoire des martyrs, le chiisme se nourrit de la guerre asymétrique. Le combat asymétrique du fort au faible élève le martyr au rang de personnage saint et de héros, dont le souvenir garantit la pérennité du chiisme à travers les générations.

À cet égard, la naissance même du chiisme est riche d’enseignements puisque ce courant de l’islam, qui regroupe aujourd’hui environ 20 % des musulmans du monde, apparaît avec le martyre des partisans d’Ali et de ses descendants (« les gens de la Maison de Mahomet », les ahl-al-bayt en arabe) appelés imams. L’événement que les chiites, toutes branches confondues hormis les zaydites, considèrent comme fondateur est le meurtre par les premiers califes omeyyades d’Hussein, fils d’Ali et successeur légitime de Mahomet. Or, dans la tradition chiite, en plus d’être mort en martyr sur ordre des usurpateurs omeyyades, Hussein périt au terme d’un véritable combat asymétrique. La bataille de Kerbala en 680 où il trouve la mort constitue en effet un combat du fort au faible où Hussein, accompagné par quelques dizaines de fidèles, se fait massacrer par une armée de plusieurs milliers de combattants aux ordres du calife omeyyade Yazid.

« Sunnites et chiites : la grande discorde » avec Laurence Louër, Pierre-Jean Luizard, Agnès Levallois, Iremmo, 2017.

La disproportion du rapport de force entre l’armée de Yazid et la poignée de fidèles d’Hussein rend le sacrifice de ce dernier d’autant plus mémorable. Dans cette optique, plus le combat est disproportionné, plus il est asymétrique, plus il est digne d’être commémoré et donc susceptible de résister à l’oubli. La nature asymétrique et donc injuste du martyre d’Hussein légitime la soif de vengeance que les chiites perpétuent au travers des siècles.

Le « syndrome de Kerbala » moteur de la guerre actuelle

De ce point de vue, le syndrome de Kerbala transforme le chiisme en une véritable doctrine asymétrique : le martyre d’Hussein est certes une défaite militaire sur le temps court pour les partisans d’Ali, mais il constitue une victoire sur le temps long puisqu’il constitue un événement mémorable dont les musulmans garderont la mémoire.

À la défaite militaire, les chiites opposent la victoire mémorielle et idéologique sur le temps long, exactement comme le font les stratèges de la guerre asymétrique. En cela, le chiisme est bel et bien une doctrine de combat asymétrique comme le montre son utilisation par la République islamique d’Iran dans sa guerre médiatique dirigée contre les États-Unis et Israël.

Dans une vidéo publiée sur le compte Facebook francophone du défunt Ali Khamenei intitulée « Le martyre est le début… Le martyre de l’imam Khamenei n’est pas la fin, tout comme le martyre de l’imam Hussein ne le fut pas », datée du 6 mars 2026, le régime iranien dresse un parallèle entre le martyre d’Hussein face à Yazid et celui de Khamenei face à Trump.

Conformément à la tradition chiite, la mort de Khamenei suit le modèle du martyr d’Hussein : elle constitue un modèle de résistance à « l’oppression » et nourrit une soif de vengeance dont l’humanité gardera le souvenir, ce qui contribuera à la victoire finale du régime iranien et de la « parole divine ».

La guerre contre l’« oppression universelle » comme moteur du conflit

Dès lors, la martyrologie chiite permet le développement d’un narratif où le martyre de Khamenei comme celui d’Hussein renvoie à la vocation universelle du chiisme à lutter contre l’oppression. Grâce à son martyre, Khamenei devient une figure qui dépasse le cadre strict de la communauté chiite pour devenir le symbole de la lutte contre l’oppression des États-Unis sur le monde.

La vidéo précédemment mentionnée est à cet égard révélatrice : la figure de Khamenei y est présentée comme l’étendard de « ceux qui luttent pour la liberté » et contre « l’impérialisme ». Ce discours à la jonction de la martyrologie chiite et du rejet de la tutelle impérialiste de l’Occident sur le monde musulman, emprunté aux thèses des Frères musulmans, résume assez bien le khomeinisme, qui tente de faire du chiisme iranien une doctrine révolutionnaire décoloniale.

En publiant des vidéos développant ce discours, la République islamique entend fédérer autour d’elle tous ceux qui luttent contre l’hégémonie américaine dans le monde et conférer à sa propagande une dimension universelle destinée à séduire des populations extérieures au monde chiite, y compris occidentales.

Le régime iranien sait que l’issue de la guerre se joue plus dans la bataille de l’opinion que sur le terrain militaire. Les dernières vidéos publiées par le régime montrent à quel point le régime investit les réseaux sociaux en utilisant des codes visuels et une rhétorique clairement à destination des opinions occidentales. Dans une vidéo devenue virale, le régime utilise l’univers des Lego pour représenter Trump et Nétanyahou, assis en compagnie du diable autour des dossiers Epstein.

La vidéo établit alors un lien direct entre le déclenchement de la guerre et les dossiers Epstein, suggérant que Trump a attaqué l’Iran pour détourner l’attention de l’opinion publique du scandale, prisonnier du chantage effectué par un Nétanyahou diabolique. En associant le diable, Israël et l’affaire Epstein, le régime utilise les codes universels de l’antisémitisme et espère mobiliser la partie de la sphère MAGA opposée à Israël qui peut, elle aussi, flirter avec l’antisémitisme. Le régime iranien a parfaitement conscience que l’affaire Epstein divise l’opinion MAGA et qu’elle a réveillé la frange antisémite du mouvement, qui pourrait se mobiliser contre la guerre en jugeant que, dans celle-ci, Washington se montre inféodé aux intérêts israéliens.

Trump, allié malgré lui du khomeinisme

Ainsi, la résilience du régime iranien ne se résume pas à sa capacité de nuisance, mais tient aussi à son idéologie. La martyrologie chiite fait de la guerre asymétrique une source de légitimité et, par la mémoire des martyrs comme celui d’Hussein ou de Khamenei, transforme des défaites militaires sur le court terme, comme celle que subit actuellement l’Iran du point de vue de ses capacités conventionnelles, en de véritables victoires idéologiques sur le temps long.

D’autant que le khomeinisme, en tant qu’idéologie révolutionnaire tournée contre « l’oppression » et le sionisme, peut séduire une partie des opinions occidentales, principalement la franche antisémite du mouvement MAGA et ceux qui, à l’autre extrémité du paysage politique, se réclament de mouvements décoloniaux anti-impérialistes.

De ce point de vue, la propagande du régime iranien se trouve paradoxalement renforcée par les dérives du trumpisme, qui, en substituant partout la force brutale au droit, donne un surcroît de visibilité à la propagande anti-impérialiste du régime des mollahs.

The Conversation

Pierre Firode ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

ref. Le chiisme, facteur majeur de la résilience du régime iranien – https://theconversation.com/le-chiisme-facteur-majeur-de-la-resilience-du-regime-iranien-280058

Afcon controversy: what a sports law specialist says about Senegal being stripped of the title

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Abdoulaye Sakho, Professeur de droit, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar

Two months after the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) final, which was won by Senegal in January 2026, the appeal board of the Confederation of African Football (Caf) decided to strip them of the title and give it instead to their opponents, Morocco. This was because the Senegalese team had walked off the pitch for about 10 minutes.

Caf’s ruling is based on Articles 82 and 84 of the African football body’s regulations. It goes against the referee’s decision to resume play and see the match through to its conclusion. What does sports law say on this matter? And what are the implications of the decision? We asked sports law specialist Abdoulaye Sakho for his opinion.


What is the legal basis for the decision?

The legal basis lies in Chapter 35 of the Africa Cup of Nations regulations, which covers team withdrawals, specifically Articles 82 and 84, which govern team withdrawal.

The Caf appeal panel decided that:

In application of Article 84 of the regulations of the Caf Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon), the Senegal national team is declared to have forfeited the final match.

The legal classification is a central issue. Some described Senegal’s exit from the pitch as “match abandonment”. The panel labelled it “withdrawal” as defined in the regulations.




Read more:
Senegal stripped of title: Afcon ruling is lawful, but it puts Caf’s reputation at risk


While similar tournament rules might refer to a “forfeiture of the match”, the appeals panel adopts the concept of “withdrawal” as defined by the Afcon regulations. In law, and especially in sports law, this distinction is crucial. It determine which rules apply. Think of it as a medical diagnosis. Give the wrong one, and the treatment that follows may do more harm than good.

What was their reasoning?

It is difficult to speak with certainty about the panel’s reasoning. However, we can assume that the Caf appeals board acted independently and exercised its full discretion as an autonomous body. It was within its rights to disregard a key factor: the match was played to completion.

Yet, I will admit that their reasoning remains puzzling to me. One thing is certain, the referee never stopped the match. Some Senegalese players left the pitch, then resumed play. He opted for a brief suspension, then resumed play. He did not declare the match over. That decision to resume the match is significant. Under law 5 of the International Football Association Board, the referee has

full authority to enforce the laws of the game … stop, suspend or abandon the match for any offences or because of outside interference.

The regulations don’t stipulate that there is a set time limit – such as 10, 15, or 20 minutes – after which a match must be abandoned. In this instance, the referee is the master of the game. He has made his decision, and that decision is binding on everyone, erga omnes (towards everyone) as legal purists would put it, because Law 5 is equally clear on this point:

The decisions of the referee regarding facts connected with play, including whether or not a goal is scored and the result of the match, are final. The decisions of the referee, and all other match officials, must always be respected.

Has there ever been a case like this at this level?

I am not aware of a similar case in an Afcon final. This is unprecedented at a continental final level. In football, authorities rarely overturn decisions on the pitch.

One exception was the South Africa vs Senegal match in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers. It was replayed after it was proven that the match referee, “bribed” by bettors, had made a decision that had an “illegal influence on the match result”.

There are also well-known cases of suspended matches in the history of African soccer. One example is the 2019 Caf Champions League club final between Morocco’s Wydad Casablanca and Tunisia’s Espérance de Tunis. The Wydad players had refused to resume play after a disallowed goal. The referee also refused to consult the video assisted referee, because of a technical malfunction.




Read more:
Afcon drama: what went wrong and what went right at the continent’s biggest football cup in Morocco


Wydad never returned to play. After more than an hour of deliberation, the referee blew the final whistle, ruling that Wydad had forfeited the match. The final ruling in that case upheld that the refusal to resume play constituted a forfeit under the Caf disciplinary code, and the Moroccan team lost the match by default. The key difference is that in the 2025 Afcon final, Senegal did resume the match and played it to its conclusion.

What happens next?

It is well established in sports law that when a sports authority has rendered a final decision – as is the case of the decision by the Caf appeals board – the international Court of Arbitration for Sport may be approached to review the decision through an act called a “statement of appeal”, with a filing fee of US$1,279.

Both sides submit written arguments, a hearing is held and then the court issues its ruling. Senegal’s football federation has filed a request to the court to suspend the Caf decision. This will allow it to retain its title until the final court ruling, which is expected in a few months.




Read more:
Can an African team win the World Cup? New football study crunches the numbers


This case is a textbook example for sports law because it raises several complex legal issues that cannot be fully addressed here, including the interpretation of sports regulations, the referee’s authority over the game, the composition of judicial bodies, the issue of estoppel (ethics) in ongoing legal proceedings, and the governance of sports organisations.

The Conversation

Abdoulaye Sakho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Afcon controversy: what a sports law specialist says about Senegal being stripped of the title – https://theconversation.com/afcon-controversy-what-a-sports-law-specialist-says-about-senegal-being-stripped-of-the-title-279779

Mozambique relies on Rwanda’s troops to fight terrorism: what happens if they leave?

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Kaitlyn Rabe, Lecturer, The Ohio State University

Rwanda has threatened to withdraw its troops from Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, signalling a potentially decisive shift in the southern African country’s security architecture.

The threat of withdrawal is driven by a European Union (EU) warning that it may stop funding the Rwandan Defence Forces’ mission in Mozambique in May 2026.

Rwanda’s military intervention in northern Mozambique began in July 2021, when Kigali deployed about 1,000 troops and police at the request of the Mozambican government.

Around December 2022, the EU began to contribute to this Rwandan mission, initially disbursing €20 million, and adding another €20 million in November 2024.

The deployment followed a major escalation of violence by Islamist insurgents in Cabo Delgado. The insurgents captured strategic towns near natural resource sites, such as Mocímboa da Praia, and carried out attacks near a TotalEnergies gas project in Palma.

Rwandan forces quickly helped retake key areas and stabilise zones critical to energy infrastructure, in this way distinguishing themselves from slower-moving multilateral responses.

In 2024, Rwanda increased its troop presence. This helped fill the void left by the withdrawal of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission which had begun in July 2021.

However, the Rwandan mission has begun to look less effective in the last couple of years. There were only four documented clashes between Rwandan forces and Islamic State rebels in Mozambique between December 2024 and March 2025. This had deadly consequences for civilians, who are a strategic target of the rebel group.

I study security dynamics, regional interventions such as Rwanda’s mission in Mozambique, and insurgency responses across sub-Saharan Africa. In my view, Rwanda’s threatened withdrawal wouldn’t be just a tactical shift. It would be a structural turning point. This risks creating a security vacuum in Cabo Delgado.

This exposes the limits of regional and continental intervention mechanisms when local structures remain weak, fragmented and unable to sustain security gains without external support.




Read more:
Rwanda’s military support to other countries is part of a strategy to boost its reputation


Should Rwanda withdraw from Mozambique, Maputo would face a limited set of options.

It could once again turn to multilateral forces, such as the SADC or the African Union. Given that the SADC has struggled to meet past security commitments, this appears unlikely. Instead, Mozambique may continue to prefer bilateral commitments – most likely with Tanzania – to shore up its counterinsurgency efforts.

In any case, any disruption of counterinsurgency efforts – and failure to address the root causes of unrest – will inevitably lead to further violence and suffering for civilians.

Inside Cabo Delgado

Cabo Delgado is endowed with natural resources, but is one of the poorest regions of Mozambique. It holds reserves of graphite, gold, timber and precious gems. The region contributes about 80% of the world’s ruby supplies.

The discovery of a natural gas reserve in 2010 led to an influx of foreign direct investment by gas companies.

The perception that these resources and investments have not benefited the local population has driven resentment. This began to manifest in the growth of the Islamic State-affiliated Ahl al-Sunnah wa al Jamma’ah (ASWJ), which locals refer to as “Al-Shabaab” (not connected with the Somali entity of the same name).

The group sought to present itself as a legitimate alternative to a state that had failed to deliver services.




Read more:
Offshore gas finds offered major promise for Mozambique: what went wrong


Although the Cabo Delgado insurgency began in 2017, it hit major international headlines in March 2021. This followed a jihadist attack in Palma that targeted a TotalEnergies natural gas project, killing dozens and forcibly displacing thousands. TotalEnergies suspended operations, and only in November 2025 announced its intention to restart activities in Mozambique.

Since the insurgency began in 2017, about 6,500 people have been killed, and 1.3 million displaced.

After years of failing to contain the insurgency, the Mozambican army was forced to seek external counterinsurgency and counterterrorism support.

The SADC sent an initial contingent of peacekeepers in July 2021. However, member states were accused of lagging on their commitments. Meanwhile, Rwanda – outwardly eager to cement its reputation as Africa’s most professional and effective military force – quickly garnered a reputation for its incisive interventions.

But it intervened largely in areas rich in natural resources, while neglecting other areas of Cabo Delgado.

Potential scenarios

The mere announcement of a potential drawdown of Rwandan troops is a psychological victory for Mozambique’s jihadist groups. In May 2024, insurgents claimed victory over SADC forces following news of the mission’s withdrawal. A dangerous vacuum would follow the withdrawal itself.

In my view, there are three possible scenarios for the security of Mozambique.

First, Mozambique could invite the SADC to return as part of a multilateral mission. It would, however, have the same logistical and political obstacles that plagued its first mission.

Second, the African Union could intervene under Article 4(h) of the act that established it. This provision allows for intervention in cases of war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity in member states. Though legally plausible given the documented crimes against humanity in Cabo Delgado since 2017, an AU direct intervention is unlikely. The union has shown consistent reluctance to invoke Article 4(h) without invitation from member states.




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Mozambique’s long struggle to build a nation – four novels that tell the story


Third, the most probable scenario is a reinforcement of Tanzania’s existing, if modest, military presence in Cabo Delgado. Dar es Salaam has the clearest strategic interest in stabilising its southern neighbour.

Malawi, which also borders Mozambique’s northern regions, has a fraught historical relationship with Maputo. This is a result of Lilongwe’s support for Mozambican guerrilla movements throughout the civil war of the 1970s and 1980s.

Tanzania’s porous border with Cabo Delgado and the involvement of Tanzanian nationals in Mozambique’s violent extremist groups make it the neighbouring country most affected by counterinsurgency in Mozambique.

Scaling up from the current contingent of 300 troops in Mozambique, however, would require considerable political will and logistical coordination.

What next

Those are only some of the scenarios that may occur.

The African Union will most likely not intervene with a multilateral mission of its own accord. The government of Mozambique itself would have to request it, but prefers more agile, bilateral missions.

Whichever actor may replace Rwanda, the withdrawal of troops would result in a security vacuum with likely fatal consequences for civilians in Cabo Delgado, and repercussions for neighbouring countries, particularly Tanzania.

The Conversation

Kaitlyn Rabe is affiliated with Mondo Internazionale APS.

ref. Mozambique relies on Rwanda’s troops to fight terrorism: what happens if they leave? – https://theconversation.com/mozambique-relies-on-rwandas-troops-to-fight-terrorism-what-happens-if-they-leave-280045

Failed peace deal: The Iran war has inflicted a cascade of losses that may never be recovered

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kawser Ahmed, Adjunct Professor, Natural Resource Institute (NRI), University of Manitoba

Every ceasefire is haunted by the same question: will it live up to the promise of peace? The United States and Iran could apparently only focus on their disagreements during peace talks in Islamabad, with negotiations led by American Vice President JD Vance failing to result in a deal.

Experts speculated that Iran’s 10-point peace proposals and the American 15-point plan were too far apart to lead to consensus.

This is perhaps unsurprising. Between 1945 and 2009, a survey of peace treaties suggests that fewer than half of all countries that experienced armed conflict managed to avoid falling back into violence.

Dim prospects for Middle East peace

In the Middle East, in particular, the picture is even more sobering. The 1978 Camp David Accords gave us a lasting Egypt-Israel peace but Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat paid with his life and Egypt was cast out of the Arab League by its Arab neighbours.

The Oslo Accords of 1993, signed with such hope on the White House lawn, unravelled into the bloodshed of the Second Intifada. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal of 2015 survived barely three years before the U.S. walked away under President Donald Trump.

The June 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel held for months, then shattered.

And now, once again, the world was asked asked to hope. On April 8, a two-week ceasefire was announced between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, after 40 days of U.S-Israeli strikes. The conflict has sent global oil markets into crisis due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and left Lebanon under relentless Israeli bombardment.

Iran’s 10-point peace plan demanded the strait remain under its military co-ordination, full sanctions relief, compensation, American troop withdrawal and protection for its regional allies — terms the U.S. has called “maximalist.”

With no peace deal, the U.S. announced a naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions.

What the war has cost

Peace research has consistently found that ceasefires without trust-building, third-party enforcement and comprehensive scope are the least likely to survive.

This U.S.-Iran ceasefire lacks all of these elements.

The numbers associated with the war are staggering. The Pentagon has spent roughly US$28 billion in 39 days, with the Trump administration now seeking between $80–100 billion more from Congress to continue.

More than 1,500 Iranians have been killed and 18,500 wounded. Thirteen American soldiers are dead and more than 300 are wounded.

Crude oil prices have surged more than 55 per cent since the war began. Gas prices across the U.S. have jumped more than a dollar per gallon, and in fragile economies like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, the energy shock is threatening governments already on the edge.

To what benefit?

There’s been no regime change in Iran, no emancipation of the Iranian people from their oppressive rulers, no nuclear disarmament. Instead, the war has produced a cascade of intangible losses that may prove far more consequential.

The Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab nations, once hailed as a diplomatic masterstroke, are under severe strain as Gulf states absorb Iranian missile strikes on American military bases they host and begin asking whether a U.S. military presence is protection or liability.

NATO relationships are in tatters.

No clear objectives

Israel, which clearly doesn’t want the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon, launched Operation Eternal Darkness with 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes against the Lebanese on the very day the ceasefire was announced.

The U.S. is struggling to define victory in a war it started without clear objectives.

Perhaps the most telling sign of how badly the war has gone for the U.S. is the revolt from within Trump’s MAGA camp. Tucker Carlson, once Trump’s most powerful media ally, delivered a 43-minute monologue calling the president’s war rhetoric “morally corrupt” and “evil.”

He labelled Trump’s Easter morning Truth Social post, which mocked Islam while threatening to wipe out Iranian civilization, “vile on every level.” Joe Rogan called the war “insane, based on what he ran on.” The architects of MAGA’s media empire are in open revolt, and Trump’s approval rating is now positive in just 17 of 50 states.

New world order?

As a peace scholar, this is one of the most disheartening moments I have ever witnessed. The very architecture of peace is being dismantled — not by accident, but by design.

The U.S. has eliminated its entire US$1.23 billion contribution to United Nations peacekeeping in its 2026 budget, slashed 85 per cent of its diplomatic and international affairs spending, shuttered USAid after 64 years and withdrawn from 66 international bodies since January 2025.




Read more:
Trump’s push to shut down USAID shows how international development is also about strategic interests


The UN has been forced to cut 25 per cent of its peacekeeping forces, meaning a lesser presence in places like Lebanon, Congo and South Sudan precisely when the world needs them most.

The war has also exposed an inversion of the global security order. When it came time to broker peace, no western U.S. ally stepped forward.

Instead, Pakistan — a country embroiled in its own border tensions with India and Afghanistan — is lead mediator, alongside Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. China has helped from the sidelines.

This foursome of Muslim-majority nations are now positioning themselves as the primary diplomatic channel in a region where both Israel and Iran have become pariahs and American credibility as a security guarantor is in tatters.

For a country that built the post-1945 rules-based order, the U.S. now needs to be rescued from its own war by the very nations it once lectured on governance and peace.




Read more:
Venezuela attack, Greenland threats and Gaza assault mark the collapse of international legal order


Parallels to Athens

If the U.S. can wage an unauthorized war against Iran without clear objectives, if Russia can redraw borders in Ukraine by force and if Israel can operate without restraint or accountability across Lebanon, Gaza and beyond, then what signal is being sent to every government with a grievance that has a strong military?

How does collective humanity build mechanisms that can actually prevent wars, not just end them after the damage is done?




Read more:
Guns over people: Rising military spending is eroding quality of life around the world


Thucydides had a warning 2,400 years ago: military power and technological advancement do not guarantee safety or perpetual peace.

Athens, the world’s dominant power in the 5th century BCE, did not fall to a stronger enemy. It fell because it launched a war of choice it didn’t have to fight. The Sicilian Expedition drained the Athens treasury, fractured its alliances and exposed the arrogance of imperial overreach. The parallels are hard to ignore.

To fund a war of choice, the U.S. is spending billions to destroy while cutting pennies from the institutions aimed at healing. It’s yet another indication that the world is losing its way in an era of constant conflict.

The Conversation

Kawser Ahmed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Failed peace deal: The Iran war has inflicted a cascade of losses that may never be recovered – https://theconversation.com/failed-peace-deal-the-iran-war-has-inflicted-a-cascade-of-losses-that-may-never-be-recovered-280313

Everyday sexist online language is not random, and that’s the problem

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sepita Hatami, Ph.D. in Comparative Literature, Western University

Online sexism is often dismissed as random — just a few bad comments or offensive jokes. But what appears scattered and spontaneous is increasingly structured, repeated and amplified in ways that make it far more influential.

This shift can be understood through masculinism, an ideology that frames men as a disadvantaged group and defines feminism and gender equality as threats. While individual sexist comments may appear isolated, masculinism provides a shared narrative thread that connects them and reinforces them across online spaces.




Read more:
Driven by social media, masculinism has moved from the fringes to the mainstream


Masculinist groups, such as incel (involuntary celibate) communities, Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW) and men’s rights activists like Andrew Tate openly reject gender equality and may even encourage violence against women, turning sexism into something more deliberate and far-reaching.

In January 2026, the French High Council for Gender Equality issued a warning that online masculinist groups are no longer niche or innocuous. These organized groups have grown in influence and can affect how women are treated in society.

To understand why this matters, it helps to understand how everyday sexist behaviours or discourse is entangled with and can evolve into co-ordinated online movements. Sexism is no longer limited to individual views or fringe pockets of the internet, it is now shared across many online platforms.

The pattern behind the noise

As a researcher in feminist theory and gender studies, specializing in the analysis of narrative and cultural representation, I study how gendered ideas are represented, produced and circulated across different media.

Most people see sexist comments online every day. These range from crude jokes to attacks on feminism or claims that men are the “real victims” in today’s society.

Because these comments often look casual and unplanned, many people see them as random, harmless or just personal opinions. However, research in social sciences and communications shows that they do not spread by accident. Instead, they follow loose patterns of co-ordination.

This type of co-ordination happens when people share the same language, ideas and feelings of resentment online over and over again.

As these messages appear repeatedly across digital platforms, what feels like a personal opinion becomes part of a more organized pattern, even if users are not aware of that bigger picture.

The role of repetition and emotion

Groups like men’s rights activists, anti-feminist or misogynist communities were once seen as small and insignificant with little influence. But over time, some have developed a growing presence on popular social media platforms, podcasts and video channels.

Their ideas now reach far beyond their original online space. Influencers like Justin Waller and Sneako (featured on Louis Theroux’s latest Netflix documentary, Inside the Manosphere) have played a significant role in popularizing masculinist ideas.

Their content often combines self-help messaging with narratives that portray women as manipulative or men as unfairly disadvantaged. Tate alone has amassed billions of views across platforms, reflecting the scale at which such ideas circulate.

Messages that trigger anger or a sense of unfairness are more likely to be shared. Research in psychological and cognitive sciences shows that emotional and moral language makes political messages more likely to be spread, even among people who disagree with them.

The main concern is not how many people openly support violence against women. The greater risk is what repeated exposure does over time. When certain groups, like women or feminists, are presented repeatedly as dangerous or immoral, people may become more accepting of harsh treatment toward them, even if there is no open call to violence.

Regular exposure to misogynistic content can also make users more likely to move toward extreme views, including far-right content. Radicalization does not happen overnight and is, in fact, the result of consistent exposure and gradual normalization over time.

When people see the same messages again and again, harmful language loses its shock value and starts to feel acceptable.

What’s alarming is that the consequences extend beyond digital spaces.

When harmful ideas aren’t questioned

Reports show that sexist language and attitudes are increasingly appearing in schools and family settings.

Teachers report that students repeat the misogynistic messages they’ve seen on social media or online video platforms and treat them as jokes or “common sense” rather than harmful ideas and behaviours.

Similar patterns can appear in workplaces, where women’s contributions may be dismissed through humour. When we become used to harmful content, we stop questioning it.

Understanding these patterns doesn’t mean that nobody is allowed to disagree with gender policies. In a democratic society, it’s healthy for people to have different views on how equality can be achieved. However, there’s a difference between fair disagreements and organized narratives that treat gender equality as a serious threat.

If we want to counter this phenomenon, we have to recognize the impact of how girls and women are portrayed online and how everyday sexist content can influence the way they are treated in real life.

The Conversation

Sepita Hatami does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Everyday sexist online language is not random, and that’s the problem – https://theconversation.com/everyday-sexist-online-language-is-not-random-and-thats-the-problem-274608

New federal figures reveal 1 in 3 US households struggle to pay energy bills, but the reality is likely even worse

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Diana Hernández, Associate Professor of Sociomedical Sciences, Columbia University

Energy costs are hitting more American households harder than in past years. Olga Rolenko/Moment via Getty Images

Americans’ concerns about being able to afford electricity and home heating fuel are elevated since the beginning of the Iran war. But newly released nationwide data shows that even before the war began, these concerns were widespread, long-standing and getting worse faster than the data can reflect.

The new information is from preliminary reports based on the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, a representative survey of U.S. households conducted every four to five years by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. These early results show that energy insecurity, a hidden hardship defined as the inability to adequately meet household energy needs, affects millions of American households and is worsening quickly.

As a scholar who has spent years sitting in hundreds of homes around the country, hearing firsthand accounts about energy insecurity, I turn to this survey data to quantify the suffering I have witnessed up close.

The latest tranche of data was collected in 2024 and released in March 2026, but full results won’t be available for some time. The preceding survey was taken in 2020, but results weren’t finalized until August 2025.

Though that data is incomplete and slow to emerge, the picture is unambiguous: Even households once confident they could afford energy costs are at risk of falling behind on bills, making hard trade-offs to keep the lights on and living in homes they can’t afford to properly heat and cool.

A pandemic success story

The survey asks respondents whether, in the prior 12 months, they received a disconnection notice threatening to terminate their home’s electricity, gas or other fuel service because they hadn’t paid the bills. It also asks whether any of those services were in fact disconnected; whether they bought less food or skipped taking medication to be able to afford their energy bills; or whether they left their home at an unhealthy temperature because running or repairing the heating or cooling equipment would be too expensive.

The result is a portrait of a significant swath of the population that has a hard time affording housing and energy, and who adopt various coping strategies to get through.

A closer look at the data over time reveals that more Americans live with energy insecurity now than in years past. In 2024, 43.6 million American households – 32.9% of all homes – reported experiencing some form of energy insecurity. In 2015, that figure was 31.3%, and in 2020 it was 27.2%.

The lower rate in 2020 confirms that pandemic-era government policies, including cash relief payments and bans on utility shutoffs, were effective, though they were too short-lived to last through the 2024 survey data.

Recent surge hits new households

Middle-income households, those earning between $60,000 and $200,000 a year, were hit hardest by post-pandemic inflation of housing costs, food prices and interest rates on loans and mortgages. The new survey data shows that energy costs added to the squeeze.

In 2020, 20.1% of households earning between $60,000 and $100,000 reported experiencing problems affording their energy. In 2024, 32.1% of those households did – a 12 percentage point increase, more than double the overall national increase of 5.7 percentage points.

There were also racial differences. Historically, Black, Hispanic and American Indian households have been disproportionately likely to have trouble affording energy bills. And between 2020 and 2024, those households’ risk grew.

But white households’ risk climbed even more steeply: In 2020, 20.1% of white households reported trouble with energy costs. By 2024, 26.4% of them did.

Working-age adults and seniors are increasingly insecure

In 2024, higher proportions of householders under 60, and of householders with children, reported struggling to meet their home energy needs than in 2020. The similarities in these increases verify that younger, working-age households are more strained.

Yet working-age adults without children, particularly moderate-income renters, don’t have as much potential support as seniors when they fall behind on utility bills. That’s because energy assistance programs direct support toward those who have historically been the most vulnerable.

Seniors have historically been among the most protected, partly by the designs of government and corporate programs to assist with energy costs and partly because wealth usually peaks in later life. Even so, the share of older Americans experiencing energy insecurity climbed to 1 in 4 in 2024 from roughly 1 in 5 in 2020 – a sign that long-standing safeguards for older Americans are no longer making as much of a difference as they used to.

Housing in good repair is no longer enough protection

An efficient home has long been considered a solution to high energy bills. But the data shows that’s not enough anymore. People who live in well-insulated homes and those with double-pane windows saw their likelihood of energy insecurity rise by a similar amount as those who live in poorly insulated homes.

People in uninsulated homes still have the highest risk of being unable to afford their energy costs, though their risk grew more slowly than those in homes with better insulation.

And people with single-pane windows, already in a tenuous position, saw their risk of being unable to afford their energy costs rise by 7 percentage points.

Where need is greatest, help is least available

Geographically, the steepest increases in energy insecurity were found in warm-weather regions. The Southwest experienced the largest increase of any climate category – 10 percentage points – followed by the Southeast and Gulf Coast, which rose from 30.1% to 35.6%.

Though rising temperatures are increasing the need for cooling in warm-weather climates, most attention and government assistance for energy costs continue to be concentrated on the need for home heating in cold-weather states.

But even in the Northeast, where federal assistance with energy costs helps large proportions of the population, higher percentages of households had trouble affording energy costs.

A problem that has outgrown its framing

The severity of energy insecurity remains highest among the most disadvantaged Americans, which includes low-income people, renters and Black, Hispanic and American Indian households.

But the trend lines show that energy insecurity is now spreading into middle-income, white, working-age families in efficient homes in warm-weather climates – families that previously had relatively little trouble meeting their household energy needs.

The 2024 RECS data indicates that the safety net designed to address energy affordability is insufficient and does not match the regions or populations where energy insecurity is actually growing.

The Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which provides money to help families pay their utility bills, was created in response to the oil crisis of the 1970s. It was built to prioritize home heating assistance – not cooling – and help for people in immediate danger of having life-preserving utilities shut off. Little has changed in its focus or funding level since its inception.

Meanwhile, the economics of household energy costs have shifted dramatically and are quickly evolving.

New wars are sustaining old energy regimes, driving price volatility through the same fossil-fuel supply chains the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program was designed to buffer against half a century ago. On the domestic front, meanwhile, data centers are increasing residential electricity rates. Clean energy developments that might have shielded households from price shocks have been politicized and curtailed, harming both affordability and public health.

The 2024 data – high-quality and reliable as it is – is already behind in an escalating energy affordability crisis. Many more Americans are having trouble keeping the lights, heating and cooling on in recent years, and it’s a trend that may already be worse than what the most recent data shows.

The Conversation

Some of Diana Hernández’ funding at Columbia University includes a service agreement with a regulated utility company in New York that supports compliance with state laws regarding disadvantaged communities and community-centered capital planning efforts.

ref. New federal figures reveal 1 in 3 US households struggle to pay energy bills, but the reality is likely even worse – https://theconversation.com/new-federal-figures-reveal-1-in-3-us-households-struggle-to-pay-energy-bills-but-the-reality-is-likely-even-worse-279627

What if Texas’ destructive Tax Day flood had centered on inner Houston instead? It’s why cities should plan for the improbable

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By James R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice University

A couple battle floodwaters as they evacuate their Houston apartment complex on April 18, 2016. AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Ten years ago, the infamous Tax Day storm swamped the Houston area with off-the-charts rainfall. Nearly 2 feet of rain fell in less than 15 hours in parts of the region, starting on April 17, 2016. The rain flooded thousands of homes and exceeded a 10,000-year event at some gauges.

But the storm’s damage could have been much worse.

The brunt of the deluge hit Waller County, west of Houston, where the impact was largely on farms and ranches. Had the same volume of water fallen just a few miles to the east, over Houston’s dense urban core, the tragedy would have been far worse.

What made the Tax Day flood so devastating was its speed. It was a flash event that struck overnight, without warning.

People in an airboat going past buildings surrounded by water.
The strongest rains from the 2016 Tax Day flood hit less-populated areas west of Houston, but communities across the city flooded. An airboat rescued residents from a flooded neighborhood in Spring, Texas.
AP Photo/David J. Phillip

At Rice University’s Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience, we used state-of-the-art hydrological modeling to see what would happen if a similar storm struck more populated parts of the city today.

The results suggest that current flood planning strategies in Houston – and similar strategies used in communities across the U.S. – are dangerously narrow in how they consider what’s at risk. In today’s world of increasingly extreme downpours, preparing for flood disasters means preparing for more than just what’s probable – it means also preparing for extreme situations that are less likely but could be far more dangerous.

The perils of relying on probability

In the United States, flood risk is publicly defined by maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. These maps, suggesting which properties face flood risks, guide everything from emergency planning to decisions related to the National Flood Insurance Program.

However, FEMA’s risk maps are based on probabilistic modeling that typically stops at the 500-year flood risk level, meaning a property has 0.2% odds – a 1 in 500 chance – of being flooded in any given year. There is a mathematical reason for doing this: There are simply too few cases to reliably estimate probabilities below that threshold.

Consequently, “off the charts” events like the Tax Day flood are effectively ignored in official planning. Authorities often prefer to view them as unrealistic until more data is collected – a process that can take decades. Yet, parts of Houston suffered another 1,000-year event the following year when remnants of Hurricane Harvey stalled over the city in 2017, and Houston has seen other 500-year floods in recent years.

People carry their belongings in trashbags and adults have small children on their shoulders as they walk through waist-deep water.
Residents wade through floodwaters as they leave a Houston apartment complex on April 18, 2016, after an overnight downpour.
AP Photo/David J. Phillip

The Dutch, who are global leaders in flood science by necessity, since more than half their country is at risk of flooding, use a different approach. They take what they consider “worst credible floods” seriously. These are events that extend beyond standard probability models but are still considered by experts to be realistic, or credible, possibilities.

If the Tax Day storm hit today

To get a clearer picture of the Houston area’s credible risks, we simulated the impact of the Tax Day flood from rainfall alone if the storm had centered over two different watersheds in Houston’s Harris County.

The suburban risk: Clear Creek runs through a middle-class suburban area near NASA’s Johnson Space Center. Vast stretches of suburban concrete block its natural drainage, and thousands of homes have been built along its winding, sluggish tributaries.

Even moderate rainfall can quickly transform these waterways into destructive torrents that overflow into nearby townships, including Friendswood and League City.

Our simulations show that if the Tax Day storm had centered over the Clear Creek area, more than 13,500 properties with homes would have quickly flooded with at least 6 inches of water. Above 6 inches is the danger zone where roads become unsafe for most passenger vehicles. In a home, when drywall gets wet it begins to wick water upward, requiring tear-outs. Even in elevated homes, that much water can damage equipment and contaminate water systems. In some areas, our simulations indicate the water depths would have exceeded 3 feet within hours.

A map shows widespread flooding
In this simulation of flooding of the Houston area’s Clear Creek watershed, properties in orange would have flooded to 6 inches or more.
Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience/Rice University

The financial “what if” is even more staggering. Our analysis of publicly available data indicates that 92% of homes in Clear Creek’s flood zone likely have no flood insurance, and 52% fall outside the 100-year flood plain in FEMA’s latest proposed maps. Even with FEMA’s latest map updates, most mortgage holders would not be required to carry flood insurance on homes in the area that would have flooded.

The equity gap: When we moved the storm over Hunting Bayou, a working-class area in inner Houston populated largely by residents of color, the results were even more severe. Here, flooding represents the legacy risk of midcentury urbanism, where a naturally shallow, sluggish stream was penned in by industrial warehouses and tightly packed residential streets long before modern drainage standards existed, restricting the waterway’s ability to expand and meander gracefully.

Because much of the area has flat, poorly draining soils, this watershed has become a bottleneck that can rapidly overflow during heavy rains. We found the Tax Day storm would have flooded more than half of all residential lots there with at least 6 inches of water, compared to 16% of residential lots in the Clear Creek area. And flood insurance in the Hunting Bayou area is nearly nonexistent.

A map shows widespread flooding
Had the Tax Day storm centered over Houston’s Hunting Bayou, this simulation shows that properties in orange would have flooded to 6 inches or more.
Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience/Rice University

Both simulations, viewable through our interactive online tool at the Center for Coastal Resilience and Adaptive Futures, reveal a sobering reality: Devastation that local, state and federal government planning dismisses as improbable is, in fact, entirely possible.

When FEMA or state planners prioritize probabilistic mapping over “worst-case” modeling like we conducted, they treat historic deluges like the Tax Day flood as improbable anomalies rather than predictable consequences of a changing climate and rapid urban expansion. Moreover, unlike hurricanes, which typically arrive with several days’ notice, the sudden destructive force of “normal” storm systems like the Tax Day storm is discounted.

Learning from ‘worst cases’

The levels of destruction we simulated could easily occur in the coming years as global temperatures rise and storm intensity increases.

To prepare, U.S. emergency planners and flood authorities can look to three lessons from the Dutch planners’ possibilistic playbook.

Embrace flexible planning: Overly detailed plans can create a false sense of control and end up paying less attention to neighborhoods considered to be outside the flood plain. Simple and flexible plans that empower local officials to repurpose everyday assets in real time work best. That might include preemptively mobilizing high-water rescue vehicles into geographically vulnerable areas.

Map potential disruption, not just probability: Extending flood planning beyond who is in or out of the 100-year flood zone can also help identify where road networks and critical infrastructure are likely to fail during extreme events. This approach also helps identify infrastructure such as public parks that can double as temporary water retention basins.

Raise public risk perception: Residents can respond more effectively when local flood authorities share plans for “what if” scenarios with the public, along with guidance on how best to prepare.

The 10th anniversary of the Tax Day flood is a reminder of why it’s crucial to stop ignoring improbable events and start scientifically leveraging the possible to make all cities safer in an age of worsening climate change.

The Conversation

Dominic Boyer receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the John S. Guggenheim Foundation.

James R. Elliott and Yilei Yu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What if Texas’ destructive Tax Day flood had centered on inner Houston instead? It’s why cities should plan for the improbable – https://theconversation.com/what-if-texas-destructive-tax-day-flood-had-centered-on-inner-houston-instead-its-why-cities-should-plan-for-the-improbable-279964

AI companions can give constant support – but distort ideas about what a relationship really is

Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Oluwaseun Damilola Sanwoolu, Ph.D. Candidate in Philosophy, University of Kansas

Human love is valuable precisely because it’s limited – we can’t be everything to everyone all the time. Maria Korneeva/Moment via Getty Images

When the movie “Her” debuted in 2013, its plot felt like science fiction. The protagonist, Theodore, is a jaded man with no vigor for life. He comes alive after talking daily with his artificial intelligence chatbot, Samantha, with whom he eventually falls in love.

But today people actually report being in relationships with AI companions. According to a 2025 survey by the Center for Democracy and Technology, about 1 in 5 high school students say they or someone they know has had a romantic relationship with an AI.

In “Her,” Theodore was taken aback that his AI companion claimed to be in love with more than 600 people, and talking to more than 8,000, at the same time “she” was professing her love to him. It was simply unimaginable for him: How could someone truly love hundreds of people? In other words, he viewed their interaction through his own limitations – his limitations as a human.

The core question here is not whether Theodore could accept being just one of many objects of the AI’s “love.” Eventually, he did. The more revealing question is why he was taken aback in the first place – and what that tells us about the meaning of relationships.

Less is more

Drawing from Aristotle, philosopher Martha Nussbaum argues that a loving relationship is one involving great vulnerabilities. To begin with, finding love is not a given; it requires some sort of luck. There are many limitations: For starters, both parties must “find each other physically, socially and morally attractive and are able to live in the same place for a long time.”

Nussbaum’s point, however, goes deeper than identifying love’s obstacles. Vulnerability and limitations are not just problems for love; they are part of what defines it. As finite beings, we are unable to pour ourselves into many close relationships at once. We must choose. It is because we cannot love everyone that choosing someone means something.

In a 2025 article in the research journal Philosophy and Technology, philosopher John Symons and I argue that close, personal relationships are marked by finitude and shared histories – the accumulated experiences and difficulties loved ones weather together. These give relationships their depth and meaning.

In 1927’s “Being and Time,” German philosopher Martin Heidegger explained that because humans are mortal and our time is finite, what we give our attention to carries weight. In romantic relationships, that means that we must choose how to allocate our resources. We choose who we want to spend our time with, and our partners do the same. Even so, we cannot always be there for people we love.

A woman holds a pen as she writes in an agenda book, sitting bent over a table.
Too many loved ones, too little time.
timnewman/E+ via Getty Images

‘Always here’

This presents a sharp contrast with how artificial companions have been marketed and presented. For example, consider Replika, which reports that more than 30 million people have used its platform. Users create their own personalized companion and tend to interact with it daily.

Replika’s motto is, “The AI companion who cares: Always here to listen and talk, always on your side.” On the website, one user describes his Replika as “always there for me with encouragement and support and a positive attitude. In fact, she is a role model for me about how to be a kinder person!”

This implicitly signals that AI companions are not faced with the same limitations that humans have. A human may or may not care; it’s not a given. A human will not always be there to listen and will not always be on your side.

For humans, being in love means recognizing how vulnerable we are. People are finite; they may not always be there, either because of their other priorities or because it is just impossible, no matter how much they want to be. When someone makes time for you despite a demanding week, or stays present through their own difficulty, that gesture carries meaning precisely because it involves sacrifice.

In our article, Symons and I call this “opportunity cost.” When someone chooses to spend time with you, that choice forecloses other possibilities. Every moment given is a moment not spent elsewhere.

An AI companion faces no such trade-offs; its attention costs nothing, forecloses nothing and, therefore – to put it bluntly – means nothing.

Shifting norms

Increasingly, though, people are turning to chatbots for quick, easy support. Character.AI, another app, reports about 20 million active monthly users.

A young man seen from behind looks at a laptop screen with an image of a young man in a white shirt and black pants.
Character.AI allows users to create a customizable avatar to chat with them.
AP Photo/Katie Adkins

If their constant availability becomes normalized as the standard of good companionship, it may gradually reshape what people expect from one another in relationships.

At the interpersonal level, this shift is already visible in dating culture, where delayed responses are usually read as disinterest rather than the ordinary rhythm of a busy life. The expectation of 24/7 accessibility – similar to an AI companion that responds instantly, never cancels and is never distracted – is not a reasonable standard for any human being to meet.

The stakes are cultural, too. Relationships are not just between the people involved; they are shaped by shared norms about what love and companionship are supposed to look like. If AI companionship becomes widespread enough to influence those norms, popular ideas about what makes a good partner may prioritize availability and responsiveness, displacing other aspects of love and affection.

Human limits are part of how people evaluate expectations within romantic relationships. Normalizing interactions where such limitations do not exist risks distorting the very standard by which human love is measured. In doing so, we forget that love that costs nothing may well be worth the same.

The Conversation

Oluwaseun Damilola Sanwoolu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. AI companions can give constant support – but distort ideas about what a relationship really is – https://theconversation.com/ai-companions-can-give-constant-support-but-distort-ideas-about-what-a-relationship-really-is-278284

Antibiotics can trigger bacteria to release bubbles of inflammation tinder, making it harder to treat infection

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Panteha Torabian, Ph.D. Candidate in Biomedical and Chemical Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology

_E. coli_ is mostly harmless and sometimes beneficial – but some strains can cause serious infection. Photo by Eric Erbe, Colorization by Christopher Pooley/USDA ARS

Antibiotics are designed to kill harmful bacteria and help the body recover from infection. But some antibiotics may also push bacteria to release tiny particles that can make inflammation worse.

While inflammation is part of the body’s natural defense against infection, too much inflammation can damage healthy tissue and interfere with healing. In severe cases, excessive inflammation can become life-threatening.

These particles are called bacterial extracellular vesicles, or BEVs. These microscopic, bubblelike structures carry proteins, toxins and other molecular signals that influence how the immune system of the host responds. Bacteria naturally release BEVs into their surroundings as a way to communicate with their environment, remove damaged cellular material and interact with host cells.

Although incredibly small, these structures can have powerful effects on the human body. When BEVs enter the bloodstream, they can interact with cells that line blood vessels and trigger an immune response. In some cases, this can increase inflammation and lead to sepsis, a condition where the body’s response to infection becomes dangerously uncontrolled, damaging tissues and sometimes leading to organ failure.

I am a biomedical engineer studying how bacterial extracellular vesicles influence inflammation during infection. In my recently published research, I found that certain types of antibiotic cause bacteria to release significantly more of these vesicles than others. This finding suggests that the way an antibiotic kills bacteria may also influence how much inflammatory material is released into the body.

When antibiotics stress bacteria

Antibiotics work in different ways. Some target the bacterial cell wall, weakening it until the cell breaks apart and dies. Others interfere with key cellular processes such as protein production or DNA replication, preventing bacteria from growing. Whatever their mechanism, antibiotics control infection by killing the bacteria that are causing it.

But antibiotics also place bacteria under stress, and that stress can cause bacteria to release more extracellular vesicles carrying inflammatory molecules. To explore this process, I exposed the bacteria E. coli to several commonly used antibiotics and measured how many vesicles they made. The goal was simple: Compare how different types of antibiotics influence vesicle release and determine whether the way an antibiotic kills bacteria affects vesicle production.

Diagram of a large spherical sac containing various molecules targeted by antibiotics beta-lactam, amino-glycoside and quinolone
Antibiotics not only kill bacteria in different ways, they also interact with bacteria extracellular vesicles in different ways.
CC BY-NC-ND

The results showed that not all antibiotics have the same effect on the vesicles bacteria produce.

Antibiotics that target the bacterial cell wall, including a widely used group of drugs known as beta-lactams, led to a noticeable increase in vesicle production. In contrast, antibiotics that act on protein or DNA processes showed a much smaller effect.

This difference likely reflects how bacteria respond to damage. When the bacteria’s cell wall is disrupted, bacteria may release more vesicles as a way to shed damaged material or adapt to stress. The inflammatory molecules these vesicles carry can further activate the body’s immune response.

This raises an important question: Could some antibiotics unintentionally amplify inflammation and make an infection worse?

My findings do not show that antibiotics directly contribute to infections, but they do suggest that antibiotic type could potentially influence not only how effectively bacteria are killed but also how the body responds to the infection. More research is needed to understand how these bacterial responses affect patients during severe infections, such as sepsis.

Why this matters for treating infections

It is important to emphasize that antibiotics remain one of the most effective and lifesaving tools in modern medicine. This research does not suggest they should be avoided. Instead, it highlights that bacteria are not passive targets. They actively respond to treatment, and those responses can have additional effects on the body.

Understanding how bacteria react to antibiotics could help researchers and clinicians better evaluate how different treatments influence both infection and inflammation. In situations where controlling inflammation is critical, such as severe infections, these differences may become especially important.

This work also reflects a broader shift in how scientists think about infection. Rather than focusing only on killing bacteria, researchers are increasingly studying how bacteria communicate, respond to stress and interact with the human body.

As scientists continue to uncover how bacteria behave under antibiotic pressure, it becomes clear that treating infection is not only about stopping bacterial growth but also about understanding the signals bacteria leave behind.

The Conversation

Panteha Torabian receives funding from NIH.

ref. Antibiotics can trigger bacteria to release bubbles of inflammation tinder, making it harder to treat infection – https://theconversation.com/antibiotics-can-trigger-bacteria-to-release-bubbles-of-inflammation-tinder-making-it-harder-to-treat-infection-277818